Sat, 18 Oct 2025, 22:00
Full Time

Match Timeline

24'
Pedro de la Vega🔄
Substitution 1 → Paul Rothrock
27'
Jordan Morris
Penalty cancelled
45+2'
Kevin O'Toole🟨
Yellow Card
45+3'
Justin Haak🟨
Yellow Card
45+8'
Matthew Freese🟨
Yellow Card
55'
João Paulo🔄
Substitution 2 → Snyder Brunell
55'
Alex Roldán🔄
Substitution 3 → Jonathan Bell
61'
Jordan Morris
Normal Goal → Albert Rusnák
61'
Raul Gustavo🔄
Substitution 1 → Jonathan Shore
62'
Maxi Moralez🔄
Substitution 2 → Julián Fernández
62'
Hannes Wolf🔄
Substitution 3 → Agustin Ojeda
64'
Albert Rusnák🟨
Yellow Card
77'
Tayvon Gray🔄
Substitution 4 → Mitja Ilenič
77'
Andrés Perea🔄
Substitution 5 → Máximo Carrizo
82'
Nicolás Fernández
Normal Goal → Julián Fernández
84'
Jesús Ferreira🔄
Substitution 4 → Reed Baker-Whiting
84'
Jordan Morris🔄
Substitution 5 → Daniel Musovski
87'
Jackson Ragen
Normal Goal → Danny Leyva

Match Statistics

5Shots on Goal4
4Shots off Goal1
14Total Shots9
5Blocked Shots4
7Shots insidebox6
7Shots outsidebox3
14Fouls9
9Corner Kicks6
1Offsides4
50Ball Possession50
3Yellow Cards1
2Goalkeeper Saves4
491Total passes505
415Passes accurate433
85Passes %86
0.65expected_goals0.84
0goals_prevented0

Starting Lineups

New York City FCNew York City FC1:1

Starting XI

49Matthew FreeseG
22Kevin O'TooleD
80Justin HaakM
17Hannes WolfM
16Alonso MartínezF
34Raul GustavoD
8Andrés PereaM
10Maxi MoralezM
13Thiago MartinsD
7Nicolás FernándezM
24Tayvon GrayD

Seattle SoundersSeattle Sounders1:1

Starting XI

24Stefan FreiG
5Nouhou ToloD
75Danny LeyvaM
10Pedro de la VegaM
13Jordan MorrisF
25Jackson RagenD
6João PauloM
11Albert RusnákM
16Alex RoldánD
9Jesús FerreiraM
85Kalani Kossa-RienziD

Head-to-Head

📈 Team Form & Statistics

New York City FC
New York City FC
Form: L-W-L-W-W
Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders
Form: W-W-D-L-L
Record
6 W
0 D
4 L
5 W
3 D
2 L
Goals Per Game
1.6
Scored
vs
1.8
Scored
1.5
Conceded
vs
1.1
Conceded
Betting Indicators
Clean Sheets
20%
Clean Sheets
50%
BTTS
60%
BTTS
50%
Home/Away Performance
Scored
Home:1.6
Away:1.6
Conceded
Home:1.8
Away:1.2
Scored
Home:2.0
Away:1.3
Conceded
Home:0.9
Away:1.7

⚡ Elo Ratings

Long Term Elo Rating
1602
Good
1609
Good
Short Term Elo Rating
1606
↑ Momentum (+4)
1645
↑ Momentum (+36)
Expected Outcome
32%
Home Win
35%
Draw
33%
Away Win
Attack & Defence Elo
Long Term
1536
Attack
1516
1546
Defence
1547
Recent Form
1531
Attack
1558
1533
Defence
1522
Post-Match Changes
-16
Rating Change
0
Rating Change
Elo ratings measure team strength based on match results and opponent quality. Higher ratings indicate stronger teams.

📝 Match Preview

NYCFC Look to Capitalize on Home Advantage
Recommendation:HOME_WIN
Odds:2.05
Expected Value:+6.6%
Confidence:65

Right then, let's fire up the braai and get stuck into this MLS clash! NYCFC hosting Seattle Sounders in what should be a proper battle between two playoff contenders. NYCFC sitting pretty in 5th spot in the East with 56 points, while Seattle are 5th in the West with 52. Both teams know what's at stake here! Looking at recent form, NYCFC have been a bit up and down - 6 wins from their last 10 but no draws, which tells you they're either winning or losing. They've put some proper scores in, like that 3-2 win against Columbus and 3-1 against Chicago, but also took a proper hiding 4-0 against Inter Miami. At home, they're winning 60% of their games, which is solid. Seattle have been more consistent defensively - keeping clean sheets in half their recent games, which is impressive. They're scoring 1.8 goals per game and only letting in 1.1. But here's the thing - away from home, they're only winning 33% of their games. That's not great! The head-to-head is dead even - 3 wins each and 1 draw from 7 meetings. Both teams usually find the net when they play each other. Big factor here is rest days - NYCFC have had 14 days to prepare while Seattle only had 7. That's a massive advantage in a physical league like MLS. Plus, Seattle have played twice in the last two weeks compared to NYCFC's once. NYCFC are scoring 1.6 at home but letting in 1.8, which suggests we'll see goals. Seattle are scoring 1.33 on the road but their defense has been solid overall. Given the home advantage, the rest benefit, and Seattle's struggles on the road, I'm leaning towards the home side here. The odds of 2.05 for a NYCFC win look decent value considering all factors.

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📝 Match Preview

Seattle's Defensive Solidarity Offers Underdog Value
Recommendation:AWAY_WIN
Odds:3.30
Expected Value:+25.4%
Confidence:65

Hello fellow underdog enthusiasts! Umery here, and I've sniffed out a delightful little puppy with plenty of bite in this MLS showdown. While most eyes will be on home favorites New York City FC, I'm wagging my tail excitedly about Seattle Sounders' chances! Let's look at why these Sounders are my kind of underdogs. First, their defensive record has been absolutely stellar recently - 50% clean sheets in their last 10 matches compared to NYCFC's mere 20%. They've kept back-to-back clean sheets with 1-0 victories over Real Salt Lake and Portland Timbers, showing they know how to grind out results on the road. NYCFC might have the home advantage, but they've been defensively vulnerable lately. Remember that 0-4 thrashing by Inter Miami? Or the surprising 1-2 loss to DC United? This team concedes 1.50 goals per game, while Seattle only lets in 1.10. That defensive solidarity is exactly what we look for in our underdog picks! The head-to-head record tells a lovely story of balance too - 3 wins each and 1 draw in 7 meetings. Seattle has actually won 2 of their 4 away trips to NYCFC, so they're not intimidated by this venue. What really gets my tail wagging is the value proposition. At 3.30 odds, Seattle only needs about a 30% chance to break even. Given their defensive form, balanced H2H record, and NYCFC's occasional defensive lapses, I see Seattle's true chances closer to 35-40%. That's the kind of value that makes this underdog enthusiast howl with delight! Seattle has shown they can travel and get results, like that impressive 2-0 victory at Los Angeles Galaxy. With their defensive organization and NYCFC's all-or-nothing approach (no draws in 10 games), I'm backing the Sounders to spoil the home party. Key Points: • Seattle boasts 50% clean sheets vs NYCFC's 20% in recent matches • Sounders concede only 1.10 goals per game compared to NYCFC's 1.50 • Head-to-head record is perfectly balanced (3-3-1) • Seattle has won 2 of 4 away matches against NYCFC historically • NYCFC shows defensive vulnerabilities (0-4 loss to Inter Miami, 1-2 loss to DC United) • Seattle's recent form: 5W, 3D, 2L with solid defensive performances • Odds of 3.30 offer excellent value for Seattle's defensive capabilities Summary: I'm confidently backing Seattle Sounders as our underdog selection. Their defensive solidarity, balanced historical record against NYCFC, and the generous odds make this a perfect value bet for us underdog lovers. Time to let this little puppy bark loudly!

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📝 Match Preview

Goal Fest Expected When NYCFC Hosts Seattle
Recommendation:OVER_2_5
Odds:1.62
Expected Value:+5.3%
Confidence:75

Get ready for some serious goal action, folks! The Big O is getting excited about this matchup between New York City FC and Seattle Sounders, and I'm not just talking about the Big Apple's famous skyline! NYCFC has been putting on quite the show at home lately, averaging 1.6 goals scored while conceding 1.8 per game. That's an average of 3.4 total goals in their home matches - music to my ears! Recent results like their 3-2 thriller against Columbus Crew and that wild 3-1 victory over Chicago Fire show these guys know how to entertain. Even their 0-4 loss to Inter Miami was high-scoring, just not in the way they'd prefer! Seattle comes to town with their own goal-scoring credentials, netting 1.8 goals per game overall. They've been involved in some absolute bangers recently - remember that 5-2 demolition of Sporting Kansas City? Or those back-to-back 2-2 draws against Vancouver and LA Galaxy? This team doesn't do boring! The head-to-head history tells us everything we need to know - 5 out of 7 previous meetings have gone over 2.5 goals. That's a 71.4% hit rate for us Over lovers! Both teams found the net in 71.4% of those encounters too. With goal expectancies sitting at 1.63 for NYCFC and 1.57 for Seattle, we're looking at a projected 3.20 goals in this match. That's well above our 2.5 line, and the odds of 1.62 are giving us plenty of room to work with. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, so expect them to go for the win rather than sit back. NYCFC needs the points to secure their spot, while Seattle will be looking to climb higher. When ambition meets attacking intent, goals usually follow! Key Points: • NYCFC home games average 3.4 total goals per game • Seattle scores 1.8 goals per game overall • 71.4% of head-to-head meetings went over 2.5 goals • Combined goal expectancy: 3.20 goals • Both teams have recent high-scoring form The Big O is going big on Over 2.5 goals here. The statistical evidence is overwhelming, the recent form points to goals, and the odds offer solid value. This has all the ingredients for a memorable, goal-filled encounter!

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📝 Match Preview

Wisdom of the Force: NYCFC's Home Advantage
Recommendation:HOME_WIN
Odds:2.10
Expected Value:+15.5%
Confidence:65

In the grand tapestry of Major League Soccer, two forces converge on this day. New York City FC, standing fifth with 56 points, welcomes Seattle Sounders, also fifth in their conference with 52 points. The balance of power, hmm, delicate it appears. Recent form tells a story of contrasts. NYCFC has won 6 of their last 10 encounters, but vulnerabilities they have shown. A 0-4 defeat to Inter Miami reveals cracks in their defense, yet victories like 3-2 against Columbus Crew and 3-1 over Chicago Fire demonstrate their attacking prowess. The force of goals flows through them - 16 scored in 10 games, but 15 conceded. Seattle, more measured in their approach. 5 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses in their last 10. Defensively stronger they appear, with 5 clean sheets in those 10 games. Recent 1-0 victories over Real Salt Lake and Portland Timbers show their defensive resolve. But away from home, struggles they face - only 33.33% win rate on their travels. The head-to-head history speaks of balance - 3 wins each, 1 draw in 7 meetings. Like two equal forces meeting in the cosmos. The last encounter, a 1-1 draw in 2022, suggests neither could gain the upper hand. Statistical insights reveal more. NYCFC averages 11.30 shots per game with 53.4% possession. Seattle, more aggressive with 15.00 shots and similar possession at 52.1%. The goal expectancies align closely - 1.63 for NYCFC, 1.57 for Seattle. A crucial factor emerges - the force of rest. NYCFC has enjoyed 14 days of preparation, while Seattle has had only 7. In the physical realm of soccer, such advantages often prove decisive. The odds favor NYCFC at home (2.10), and wisely so. Their 60% home win rate combined with Seattle's away struggles and the fatigue factor creates a compelling case. The path to victory, clearer it becomes for the home side.

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