Sun, 19 Oct 2025, 01:00
Full Time

Match Timeline

26'
A. Pellegrino⚽
Normal Goal β†’ A. Dreyer
42'
Cristhian Paredes🟨
Yellow Card
46'
C. ParedesπŸ”„
Substitution 1 β†’ J. Fory
47'
A. Dreyer⚽
Normal Goal
49'
A. Dreyer⚽
Normal Goal β†’ O. Valakari
51'
Joao Ortíz🟨
Yellow Card
54'
D. Pereira da CostaπŸ”„
Substitution 2 β†’ J. Mosquera
54'
J. OrtizπŸ”„
Substitution 3 β†’ D. Chara
54'
I. SmithπŸ”„
Substitution 4 β†’ M. Rojas
55'
A. HarangiπŸ”„
Substitution 1 β†’ W. Kumado
63'
A. Pellegrino⚽
Normal Goal β†’ J. Tverskov
64'
Aníbal Godoy🟨
Yellow Card
67'
J. TverskovπŸ”„
Substitution 2 β†’ L. de la Torre
67'
A. PellegrinoπŸ”„
Substitution 3 β†’ A. Mighten
67'
A. GodoyπŸ”„
Substitution 4 β†’ P. Soma
73'
K. KelsyπŸ”„
Substitution 5 β†’ F. Mora
82'
Unknown PlayerπŸ”„
Substitution 5 β†’ M. Ingvartsen

Match Statistics

3Shots on Goal6
8Shots off Goal6
11Total Shots16
0Blocked Shots4
6Shots insidebox13
5Shots outsidebox3
11Fouls14
3Corner Kicks5
4Offsides3
30Ball Possession70
2Yellow Cards1
2Goalkeeper Saves3
309Total passes766
252Passes accurate693
82Passes %90
0.71expected_goals2.98
0goals_prevented0

Starting Lineups

Portland TimbersPortland Timbers1:1

Starting XI

41J. PantemisG
4K. MillerD
23I. SmithM
99K. VeldeF
80J. OrtizD
24D. AyalaM
19K. KelsyF
13D. ZuparicD
17C. ParedesM
10D. Pereira da CostaF
11AntonyM

San DiegoSan Diego1:1

Starting XI

1C. J. dos SantosG
27L. BombinoD
20A. GodoyM
90A. PellegrinoF
26M. DuahD
6J. TverskovM
21C. BairdF
97C. McVeyD
8O. ValakariM
10A. DreyerF
23A. HarangiD

Head-to-Head

πŸ“ˆ Team Form & Statistics

Portland Timbers
Portland Timbers
Form: L-D-D-L-W
San Diego
San Diego
Form: W-L-D-W-L
Record
1 W
5 D
4 L
β€’
6 W
2 D
2 L
Goals Per Game
0.9
Scored
vs
1.8
Scored
1.3
Conceded
vs
1.1
Conceded
Betting Indicators
Clean Sheets
10%
Clean Sheets
30%
BTTS
60%
BTTS
60%
Home/Away Performance
Scored
Home:2.0
Away:0.4
Conceded
Home:2.0
Away:1.0
Scored
Home:1.3
Away:2.2
Conceded
Home:1.5
Away:0.8

⚑ Elo Ratings

Long Term Elo Rating
1570
Average
1497
Average
Short Term Elo Rating
1560
↓ Momentum (-10)
1476
↓ Momentum (-21)
Expected Outcome
42%
Home Win
31%
Draw
27%
Away Win
Attack & Defence Elo
Long Term
1542
Attack
1469
1531
Defence
1541
Recent Form
1543
Attack
1430
1562
Defence
1551
Post-Match Changes
-12
Rating Change
0
Rating Change
Elo ratings measure team strength based on match results and opponent quality. Higher ratings indicate stronger teams.

πŸ“ Match Preview

San Diego to Dominate Struggling Portland
Recommendation:AWAY_WIN
Odds:2.50
Expected Value:+50.0%
Confidence:75

Ag man, this one looks pretty straightforward! San Diego is absolutely flying this season, sitting pretty in 2nd place with 60 points, while Portland is languishing in 7th with only 44 points. The difference in quality is clear as day. San Diego's recent form is proper booya - 6 wins in their last 10 games with a solid 60% win rate. They're scoring goals for fun too, averaging 1.80 per game while keeping things tight at the back with only 1.10 conceded. Their away form is especially scary - 83.33% win rate on the road with 2.17 goals per game! That's the kind of form that makes you want to throw another steak on the braai. Portland, on the other hand, is struggling big time. Only 1 win in their last 10 games? That's worse than a vegetarian BBQ! They're averaging just 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30. Their home form isn't much better either - 33.33% win rate at home. They did manage a 0-0 draw against San Diego back in August, but that looks like the exception rather than the rule. The stats don't lie here. San Diego has better shot accuracy (50.6% vs 35%), more possession (63.1% vs 50.6%), and they're just playing much better football. Portland's recent results show they can't even beat teams like Houston Dynamo who are sitting near the bottom of the table. Yeah, I know Portland won 3-0 in the first meeting way back in February, but that was ancient history in football terms. San Diego has been a different beast since then, and their away form speaks for itself. Key Points: - San Diego sits 2nd in the league with 60 points vs Portland's 7th place with 44 points - San Diego has exceptional 83.33% away win rate this season - Portland struggling with only 1 win in last 10 games (10% win rate) - San Diego averaging 1.80 goals per game vs Portland's 0.90 - San Diego has better shot accuracy (50.6% vs 35%) and possession (63.1% vs 50.6%) - Both teams have 60% BTTS rate in recent matches - Goal expectancy shows 3.5 total goals expected in this match The value is clear here - San Diego's away form is too good to ignore, and Portland's home struggles make this look like a straightforward away win. Time to back the form team!

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πŸ“ Match Preview

Timbers Ready to Bite Back Against High-Flying San Diego
Recommendation:HOME_WIN
Odds:2.62
Expected Value:+4.8%
Confidence:65

Oh, what a delightful underdog story we have brewing here! 🐾 The Portland Timbers, sitting pretty in 7th place with 44 points, are set to host the second-placed San Diego side who've been absolutely flying with 60 points this season. But hold your horses - this might not be as straightforward as the league table suggests! Let me tell you why these Timbers pups have some serious bite in them! Despite their recent form showing just 1 win in their last 10 games, they've been incredibly resilient against top-tier opposition. They've managed to snatch draws against Vancouver Whitecaps (1-1), FC Dallas (2-2), and Minnesota United FC (1-1) - all teams that know how to win games. That's the spirit I love to see in our underdogs! Now, here's where it gets really interesting. The head-to-head record between these two sides heavily favors Portland - they're unbeaten with 1 win and 1 draw from their two encounters. Remember that 3-0 victory earlier this season? And more recently, they held San Diego to a 0-0 draw on August 24th. That's right, our little puppies have shown they can handle the big dogs! San Diego's away form, while impressive on paper (83.33% win rate), has shown some cracks recently. They suffered a surprising 1-3 loss to Minnesota United and a 0-1 defeat to San Jose Earthquakes. Even top teams have their off days, and that's where our underdogs can pounce! Portland's home form shows they can score when it matters most, averaging 2.00 goals per game at home. With the crowd behind them and that psychological edge from previous meetings, I'm sensing a potential upset brewing. The odds of 2.62 for a Portland win seem incredibly generous given these factors! Remember, friends - value isn't always found in the obvious choices. Sometimes the biggest rewards come from backing the little guys when everyone else is looking the other way. And right now, I'm seeing plenty of reasons to believe in our Portland pups!

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πŸ“ Match Preview

Goal Fest Expected When High-Flying San Diego Visits Portland
Recommendation:OVER_2_5
Odds:1.53
Expected Value:+4.0%
Confidence:75

Get ready for some serious goal action, folks! The Big O is buzzing about this matchup, and the numbers are screaming "OVER!" San Diego has been absolutely devastating on the road this season, boasting an incredible 83.33% win rate away from home while averaging a whopping 2.17 goals per game. That's the kind of attacking firepower that gets my heart racing! Meanwhile, Portland's home games have been anything but boring. Their last three matches at home have averaged exactly 4 total goals per game (2 scored, 2 conceded). We're talking end-to-end excitement where both teams find the net regularly. In fact, both teams have scored in 60% of their recent matches, which tells me we're in for a proper shootout. The data doesn't lie here. San Diego comes in red-hot with 6 wins in their last 10 games, including that spectacular 4-2 demolition of Houston Dynamo. They've been scoring for fun on their travels, and Portland's leaky home defense (conceding 2.00 per game at home) is exactly what visitors dream about facing. Sure, their last meeting ended 0-0, but that was way back in August. Both teams have evolved since then, and the current form points to goals, goals, and more goals. The combined goal expectancy sits at 3.50, which is music to my ears! When you've got an away team scoring over two goals per game on the road and a home team whose matches average four goals total, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to see where the value lies. This has all the ingredients for a classic MLS thriller with plenty of O's for everyone!

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πŸ“ Match Preview

San Diego Set to Dominate Struggling Portland
Recommendation:AWAY_WIN
Odds:2.50
Expected Value:+70.0%
Confidence:85

This matchup presents a clear quality disparity that demands attention. San Diego arrives in exceptional form, having secured 6 wins from their last 10 matches (2.00 points per game), while Portland Timbers are languishing with just 1 victory in the same period (0.80 points per game). The league standings tell the same story - San Diego sits 2nd with 60 points compared to Portland's 7th place with 44 points. San Diego's away form has been particularly impressive, boasting an 83.33% win rate on the road with 2.17 goals scored per game. Their recent away victories include a 2-1 triumph over LAFC and a 2-0 win against Sporting Kansas City, demonstrating their ability to perform in hostile environments. In contrast, Portland's home record is mediocre at best, winning only 33.33% of their home matches while conceding 2.00 goals per game. Portland's recent results show a team struggling for consistency. Their sole victory in the last 10 games was a narrow 2-1 win against New York Red Bulls, while they've managed draws against mid-table teams like FC Dallas and Vancouver Whitecaps. More concerning are their losses to Seattle Sounders (1-0) and Houston Dynamo (1-0), highlighting their offensive struggles with just 0.90 goals scored per game. The head-to-head record is limited but shows Portland won 3-0 at home earlier in the season, though the more recent meeting ended 0-0. However, San Diego's current form and superior quality should override historical data. Their goal expectancy of 2.08 compared to Portland's 1.42 further supports the away team's advantage. With both teams having equal rest (14 days), fatigue won't be a factor. San Diego's consistent performances and Portland's defensive vulnerabilities (1.30 goals conceded per game) create a scenario where the away team should control proceedings. Key Points: β€’ San Diego's exceptional away form: 83.33% win rate, 2.17 goals per game β€’ Massive form gap: San Diego 2.00 PPG vs Portland 0.80 PPG β€’ League position disparity: 2nd vs 7th place β€’ Portland's offensive struggles: 0.90 goals scored per game β€’ San Diego's quality away wins against LAFC and Minnesota United Given San Diego's superior form, quality, and exceptional away record, this represents one of the more confident betting opportunities available.

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πŸ“ Match Preview

Wisdom of the Force: San Diego's Away Power
Recommendation:AWAY_WIN
Odds:2.50
Expected Value:+50.0%
Confidence:65

Hmmm, much to ponder in this encounter. The force of form flows strongly through San Diego, yet Portland's home ground holds ancient secrets. In the grand tapestry of the season, San Diego sits high with 60 points, while Portland struggles at 44 - a gap that speaks volumes of their journeys. Recent results reveal the truth. Portland, oh how they struggle - but one victory in ten games they claim. Their attack, weak it has become, scoring merely 0.9 goals per game. Against Seattle they fell 1-0, to Houston 1-0, to FC Cincinnati 2-3. Only against New York Red Bulls did they find victory, 2-1 the score. Many draws have they collected, like the 0-0 stalemate with San Diego in their last meeting. San Diego, powerful they are on the road. Six wins in ten games, scoring 1.8 goals per contest. Away from home, unstoppable they appear - 83.33% win rate and 2.17 goals per game. Against Houston they triumphed 4-2, Los Angeles FC they defeated 2-1, San Jose they conquered 2-1. Their form, strong it is. The head-to-head record speaks of Portland's dominance at home against this foe - one win, one draw, no losses. But the past does not always determine the future, hmmm? The force of current form often outweighs ancient history. Portland's home attack averages 2.0 goals, yet their defense concedes the same amount. San Diego away scores 2.17 while conceding only 0.83. The balance of power, clear it becomes. In betting, wisdom lies in seeing beyond the surface. The odds of 2.50 for San Diego victory reflect their strength, yet value may still be found. For those who seek profit, the path of the away warrior seems illuminated by the data stars.

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πŸ“ Match Preview

Timbers' Troubles vs San Diego's Road Warriors
Recommendation:AWAY_WIN
Odds:2.50
Expected Value:+62.5%
Confidence:75

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Portland Timbers versus San Diego - and blimey, what a tale of two teams we've got here. Portland are having a right old time of it lately, and not in a good way. One win in their last ten games? That's relegation form, that is. They've managed just 9 goals in those 10 matches - that's less than a goal a game, which simply won't cut it at this level. At home, they're shipping two goals per game on average, which is about as solid as a chocolate teapot. San Diego, on the other hand, are absolutely flying. Six wins in their last 10, and get this - they've won 83% of their away games this season! That's not just good, that's title-chasing form. They're banging in 2.17 goals per game on their travels and only letting in 0.83. That's the sort of away record that makes other teams tremble. The head-to-head shows Portland won 3-0 back in February, but that feels like a different lifetime given how both teams are playing now. They drew 0-0 in August, but since then San Diego have been on another level while Portland have been going backwards. Looking at the stats, San Diego average 1.8 goals per game overall compared to Portland's 0.9. That's a massive gulf in quality. Portland are drawing too many games (5 in their last 10) but they're not winning enough, and against a team like San Diego, draws don't do you much good. The odds have San Diego as slight favorites at 2.50, which to me looks like cracking value. A team with an 83% away win rate should be shorter than that, especially against a Portland side that's won just 1 of their last 10.

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