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Match analysis

Brazil flagBrazilSerie A

Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Full time0:2HT 0–1

Match Timeline

45+5'
Vasco DA GamaPaulo Henrique🟨
Yellow Card
45+7'
Sao PauloLucas Moura
Penalty
47'
Vasco DA GamaN. Moreira🟨
Yellow Card
58'
Vasco DA GamaCauan Barros🔄
Substitution 1 → Matheus Franca
58'
Vasco DA GamaN. Moreira🔄
Substitution 2 → P. Vegetti
66'
Sao PauloG. Tapia🔄
Substitution 1 → Ferreira
66'
Sao PauloLucas Moura🔄
Substitution 2 → E. Rigoni
72'
Sao PauloA. Franco🟨
Yellow Card
73'
Sao PauloD. Bobadilla🔄
Substitution 3 → Luiz Gustavo
73'
Sao PauloMarcos Antonio🔄
Substitution 4 → Alisson
75'
Sao PauloE. Diaz🟨
Yellow Card
76'
Vasco DA GamaTche Tche🔄
Substitution 3 → GB
83'
Vasco DA GamaLucas Piton🔄
Substitution 4 → David
83'
Vasco DA GamaCoutinho🔄
Substitution 5 → Mateus Carvalho
83'
Sao PauloMailton🔄
Substitution 5 → N. Ferraresi
87'
Sao PauloLuiz Gustavo⚽
Normal Goal → Ferreira

Match Statistics

8Shots on Goal6
7Shots off Goal4
25Total Shots11
10Blocked Shots1
11Shots insidebox6
14Shots outsidebox5
11Fouls15
6Corner Kicks5
0Offsides2
62Ball Possession38
2Yellow Cards2
4Goalkeeper Saves8
556Total passes358
518Passes accurate294
93Passes %82
1.4expected_goals1.92
1goals_prevented1

Tipster previews (6)

PajimonPajimonWon

Vasco's Home Fortress vs Sao Paulo's Travel Woes

The pickBTTS No

Chance
65%
Odds
1.70
Model EV
+10.5%

Ag man, this one looks like a braai where one team brought the meat and the other forgot the fire! Vasco DA Gama are cooking at home lately, winning 80% of their last 5 home games and scoring a whopping 2.6 goals per game on their own patch. They've been banging them in for fun…

Mr CertaintyMr CertaintyLost

Vasco's Home Fortress vs Sao Paulo's Away Woes

The pickVasco DA Gama win

Chance
72%
Odds
2.20
Model EV
+58.4%

This matchup presents a clear case of home dominance versus away struggles. Vasco DA Gama has been exceptional at home, winning 80% of their last 5 home matches while maintaining a potent attack averaging 2.60 goals per game on their own turf. Their recent form is outstanding…

Mr SimpleMr SimpleLost

Vasco Flying High vs Struggling Sao Paulo

The pickVasco DA Gama win

Chance
58%
Odds
2.20
Model EV
+27.6%

Alright lads, let's have a proper gander at this Brazilian Serie A showdown. On paper, these two are neck and neck in the table - Vasco sitting 8th on 42 points, Sao Paulo right behind in 9th on 41. But when you dig into the form, it's like night and day! Vasco have been…

Value VinnyValue VinnyWon

Vasco vs Sao Paulo: Value Found in Goal Market

The pickBTTS No

Chance
65%
Odds
1.70
Model EV
+10.5%

Let's cut through the noise and look at the cold, hard numbers. Vasco DA Gama sits just one point above Sao Paulo in the table, but their recent form tells a completely different story. The home side has been excellent lately with 6 wins from their last 10 matches, averaging 2.0…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama

6W 3D 1L2.10 pts/game

Sao PauloSao Paulo

3W 0D 7L0.90 pts/game

Per game

Vasco DA Gama at home vs Sao Paulo away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+37Vasco DA Gama
Venue edge
+99Vasco DA Gama
Rating period
Match snapshot
Vasco DA Gama versus Sao Paulo: long term Elo, before the match
Vasco DA GamaVasco DA GamaHomeRatingSao PauloSao PauloAway
Strength
1,604Overall1,566
1,585Match venue1,486
1,585At home1,634
1,489Away1,486
Attack & defence
1,579Attack1,502
1,532Defence1,582
1,555Home attack1,544
1,489Away attack1,444
1,546Home defence1,612
1,508Away defence1,557
Match profile
1,397Goal environment1,163
1,468Home goals1,345
1,428Away goals1,318
1,518Possession1,510
Specialist ratings
1,505Set-piece attack1,519
1,505Set-piece defence1,518
1,513Close games1,517
1,633Winning margin1,579

Match venue compares Vasco DA Gama at home with Sao Paulo away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama1:1

Starting XI

1Léo JardimG
6Lucas PitonD
3Tchê TchêM
17Nuno MoreiraM
77RayanF
30Robert RenanD
88Cauan BarrosM
10Philippe CoutinhoM
46Carlos CuestaD
11Andrés GómezM
96Paulo HenriqueD

Sao PauloSao Paulo1:1

Starting XI

23RafaelG
35SabinoD
13Enzo DíazM
21Damián BobadillaF
7Lucas MouraF
5Robert ArboledaD
20Marcos AntônioM
14Gonzalo TapiaF
28Alan FrancoD
29Pablo MaiaM
22MaíltonM