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Match analysis

Brazil flagBrazilSerie A

Internacional vs Atletico-MG

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Match Timeline

15'
Atletico-MGVitor Hugo
Card upgrade
17'
Atletico-MGVitor Hugo🟥
Red Card
20'
Atletico-MGDudu🔄
Substitution 1 → Ruan Tressoldi
31'
Atletico-MGRony
Penalty cancelled
45+7'
InternacionalBruno Gomes🟨
Yellow Card
45+8'
InternacionalJuninho🟨
Yellow Card
46'
InternacionalJuninho🔄
Substitution 1 → J. Carbonero
46'
Atletico-MGFausto Vera🔄
Substitution 2 → Natanael
46'
Atletico-MGHulk🔄
Substitution 3 → Caio Paulista
51'
InternacionalAlexandro Bernabei🟨
Yellow Card
59'
InternacionalAlan Patrick🟥
Red card cancelled
60'
InternacionalAlan Patrick🟨
Yellow Card
61'
Atletico-MGEverson🟨
Yellow Card
61'
Atletico-MGIgor Gomes🔄
Substitution 4 → Bernard
65'
InternacionalBruno Tabata🔄
Substitution 2 → Ricardo Mathias
70'
Atletico-MGAlexsander🔄
Substitution 5 → Reinier
77'
Atletico-MGBernard🟨
Yellow Card
80'
InternacionalGabriel Mercado🟨
Yellow Card
83'
Atletico-MGJunior Alonso🟨
Yellow Card
85'
InternacionalVitinho🔄
Substitution 3 → Gustavo Prado
90+3'
Atletico-MGRuan🟨
Yellow Card
90+4'
InternacionalRafael Borré🟨
Yellow Card
90+5'
InternacionalJohan Carbonero🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

9Shots on Goal2
5Shots off Goal1
22Total Shots6
8Blocked Shots3
10Shots insidebox2
12Shots outsidebox4
18Fouls10
7Corner Kicks1
4Offsides0
77Ball Possession23
7Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards1
2Goalkeeper Saves8
587Total passes179
527Passes accurate106
90Passes %59
1.86expected_goals0.27
1goals_prevented1

Tipster previews (3)

PajimonPajimonLost

Home Advantage Key in Mid-Table Battle

The pickInternacional win

Chance
52%
Odds
2.05
Model EV
+6.6%

Right then, let's fire up the braai and look at this clash between two teams stuck in the middle of the table! Internacional are sitting 15th with 35 points, while Atletico-MG are just one spot above them on 36 points - proper tight affair this one. Now, Internacional have been…

Umery UnderdogUmery UnderdogLost

Underdog Alert: Atletico-MG poised to bite

The pickAtletico-MG win

Chance
35%
Odds
3.75
Model EV
+31.3%

Oh, what a delightful matchup we have here! The little puppies from Atletico-MG are heading to Internacional's den, and I'm sensing some serious value in this one. Let me tell you why I'm wagging my tail with excitement! First off, don't let those league positions fool you …

Value VinnyValue VinnyLost

Home Advantage Creates Value in Mid-Table Battle

The pickInternacional win

Chance
52%
Odds
2.05
Model EV
+6.6%

Let's cut through the noise and look at the numbers. The bookies have Internacional at 2.05 for the home win, but I'm seeing value here that the market might be missing. Sure, Atletico-MG has the better recent form with 1.80 points per game compared to Internacional's 1.10, and…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

InternacionalInternacional

3W 2D 5L1.10 pts/game

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG

5W 3D 2L1.80 pts/game

Per game

Internacional at home vs Atletico-MG away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+9Internacional
Venue edge
+132Internacional
Rating period
Match snapshot
Internacional versus Atletico-MG: long term Elo, before the match
InternacionalInternacionalHomeRatingAtletico-MGAtletico-MGAway
Strength
1,543Overall1,534
1,615Match venue1,483
1,615At home1,617
1,525Away1,483
Attack & defence
1,512Attack1,445
1,552Defence1,579
1,551Home attack1,523
1,472Away attack1,420
1,594Home defence1,590
1,547Away defence1,559
Match profile
1,170Goal environment1,565
1,463Home goals1,632
1,207Away goals1,433
1,491Possession1,507
Specialist ratings
1,466Set-piece attack1,494
1,467Set-piece defence1,494
1,516Close games1,537
1,549Winning margin1,530

Match venue compares Internacional at home with Atletico-MG away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

InternacionalInternacional1:1

Starting XI

12Ivan QuaresmaG
18JuninhoD
26Alexandro BernabeiM
10Alan PatrickF
19Rafael BorréF
25Gabriel MercadoD
29Thiago MaiaM
17Bruno TabataF
4VitãoD
15Bruno GomesM
28VitinhoM

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG1:1

Starting XI

22EversonG
6Junior AlonsoD
5AlexsanderM
92DuduF
7HulkF
14Vitor HugoD
8Fausto VeraM
33RonyF
26Renzo SaraviaD
17Igor GomesM
21Alan FrancoM