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Match analysis

ItalySerie A

Cagliari vs Bologna

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Full time0:2HT 0–1

Match Timeline

13'
Juan Miranda🟨
Yellow Card
31'
E. Holm⚽
Normal Goal β†’ J. Odgaard
54'
G. ZappaπŸ”„
Substitution 1 β†’ G. Borrelli
55'
M. FeliciπŸ”„
Substitution 2 β†’ Z. Luvumbo
59'
J. MirandaπŸ”„
Substitution 1 β†’ C. Lykogiannis
59'
F. BernardeschiπŸ”„
Substitution 2 β†’ R. Orsolini
62'
Lewis Ferguson🟨
Yellow Card
68'
M. PratiπŸ”„
Substitution 3 β†’ G. Gaetano
68'
Y. MinaπŸ”„
Substitution 4 β†’ J. Pedro
76'
Sebastiano Esposito🟨
Yellow Card
77'
R. FreulerπŸ”„
Substitution 3 β†’ T. Pobega
77'
N. CambiaghiπŸ”„
Substitution 4 β†’ B. Dominguez
78'
S. EspositoπŸ”„
Substitution 5 β†’ S. Kilicsoy
80'
R. Orsolini⚽
Normal Goal
86'
Emil Holm
Penalty cancelled
88'
E. HolmπŸ”„
Substitution 5 β†’ L. De Silvestri
90+2'
Charalampos Lykogiannis🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

3Shots on Goal7
1Shots off Goal2
4Total Shots10
0Blocked Shots1
1Shots insidebox4
3Shots outsidebox6
15Fouls22
2Corner Kicks7
5Offsides1
42Ball Possession58
1Yellow Cards3
5Goalkeeper Saves3
310Total passes427
241Passes accurate363
78Passes %85
0.19expected_goals0.77
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (4)

PajimonWon

Cagliari vs Bologna: Low-Scoring Affair on the Cards?

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
62%
Odds
2.30
Model EV
+42.6%

Alright boet, let's fire up the braai and break down this Serie A clash! Cagliari hosts Bologna in what looks like a tight encounter between two mid-table teams separated by just two points. Cagliari comes into this match sitting 11th with 8 points, and they've been pretty solid…

Mr SimpleLost

Cagliari vs Bologna: Home Advantage vs Away Woes

The pickCagliari win

Chance
45%
Odds
3.60
Model EV
+62.0%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. On paper, you might think Bologna have the edge sitting pretty in 7th while Cagliari are down in 11th. But football's not played on paper, is it? And when you dig into the numbers, this one's got value written all over it…

Value VinnyLost

Value Found: Cagliari Home Win vs Bologna

The pickCagliari win

Chance
36%
Odds
3.50
Model EV
+26.0%

Let's cut through the noise and look at the cold, hard numbers. The bookmakers have priced Bologna as favorites at 2.10, but the data tells a different story entirely. Bologna's away form is abysmal - just one win in their last five away matches, scoring a paltry 0.6 goals per…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Cagliari

4W 4D 2L1.60 pts/game

Bologna

5W 2D 3L1.70 pts/game

Per game

Cagliari at home vs Bologna away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match Β· within Serie A

Overall edge
+141Bologna
Venue edge
+44Bologna
Rating period
Match snapshot
Cagliari versus Bologna: long term Elo, before the match
CagliariHomeRatingBolognaAway
Strength
1,515Overall1,655
1,503Match venue1,547
1,503At home1,706
1,434Away1,547
Attack & defence
1,485Attack1,565
1,558Defence1,610
1,505Home attack1,605
1,407Away attack1,493
1,526Home defence1,662
1,532Away defence1,546
Match profile
1,730Goal environment1,577
1,728Home goals1,557
1,502Away goals1,520
1,492Possession1,509
Specialist ratings
1,484Set-piece attack1,519
1,484Set-piece defence1,519
1,474Close games1,616
1,534Winning margin1,669

Match venue compares Cagliari at home with Bologna away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

CagliariCagliari1:1

Starting XI

1E. CaprileG
33A. ObertD
17M. FeliciM
94S. EspositoF
6S. LupertoD
90M. FolorunshoM
26Y. MinaD
16M. PratiM
28G. ZappaD
8M. AdopoM
2M. PalestraM

BolognaBologna1:1

Starting XI

13F. RavagliaG
33J. MirandaD
19L. FergusonM
28N. CambiaghiM
9S. CastroF
14T. HeggemD
8R. FreulerM
21J. OdgaardM
41M. VitikD
10F. BernardeschiM
2E. HolmD