Fri, 24 Oct 2025, 18:45
Serie A
Italy
Italy
Full Time
2:2
HT: 1 - 0

Match Timeline

7'
R. Leao
Normal Goal → S. Ricci
31'
Michel Aebischer🟨
Yellow Card
46'
G. Bonfanti🔄
Substitution 1 → J. Cuadrado
46'
R. Albiol🔄
Substitution 2 → A. Calabresi
60'
J. Cuadrado
Penalty
71'
M. Tramoni🔄
Substitution 3 → I. Vural
71'
H. Meister🔄
Substitution 4 → S. Moreo
76'
D. Bartesaghi🔄
Substitution 1 → Z. Athekame
76'
S. Gimenez🔄
Substitution 2 → C. Nkunku
81'
Zachary Athekame🟨
Yellow Card
84'
Isak Vural🟨
Yellow Card
86'
M. Nzola
Normal Goal → E. Akinsanmiro
90'
Z. Athekame
Normal Goal → L. Modric
90+5'
M'Bala Nzola🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

7Shots on Goal2
8Shots off Goal3
20Total Shots8
5Blocked Shots3
9Shots insidebox3
11Shots outsidebox5
8Fouls21
6Corner Kicks2
2Offsides1
68Ball Possession32
1Yellow Cards3
0Goalkeeper Saves5
620Total passes291
556Passes accurate231
90Passes %79
1.54expected_goals1.42
0goals_prevented0

Starting Lineups

AC MilanAC Milan1:1

Starting XI

16Mike MaignanG
31Strahinja PavlovićD
14Luka ModrićM
33Davide BartesaghiM
10Rafael LeãoF
46Matteo GabbiaD
4Samuele RicciM
7Santiago GiménezF
5Koni De WinterD
19Youssouf FofanaM
56Alexis SaelemaekersM

PisaPisa1:1

Starting XI

1Adrian ŠemperG
4Antonio CaraccioloD
94Giovanni BonfantiM
18M'Bala NzolaF
39Raúl AlbiolD
14Ebenezer AkinsanmiroM
9Henrik Wendel MeisterF
5Simone CanestrelliD
20Michel AebischerM
10Matteo TramoniM
15Idrissa TouréM

Head-to-Head

📈 Team Form & Statistics

AC Milan
AC Milan
Form: W-D-W-W-W
Pisa
Pisa
Form: D-L-D-L-L
Record
7 W
1 D
2 L
0 W
5 D
5 L
Goals Per Game
1.7
Scored
vs
0.5
Scored
0.8
Conceded
vs
1.3
Conceded
Betting Indicators
Clean Sheets
60%
Clean Sheets
30%
BTTS
40%
BTTS
30%
Home/Away Performance
Scored
Home:1.8
Away:1.5
Conceded
Home:0.7
Away:1.0
Scored
Home:0.0
Away:0.8
Conceded
Home:0.5
Away:1.8

⚡ Elo Ratings

Long Term Elo Rating
1704
Good
1482
Average
Short Term Elo Rating
1739
↑ Momentum (+35)
1475
↓ Momentum (-8)
Expected Outcome
60%
Home Win
23%
Draw
17%
Away Win
Attack & Defence Elo
Long Term
1600
Attack
1456
1631
Defence
1522
Recent Form
1612
Attack
1418
1668
Defence
1539
Post-Match Changes
-7
Rating Change
0
Rating Change
Elo ratings measure team strength based on match results and opponent quality. Higher ratings indicate stronger teams.

📝 Match Preview

Milan's Force Strong Against Struggling Pisa
Recommendation:BOTH_TEAMS_TO_SCORE_NO
Odds:1.67
Expected Value:+16.9%

Much to ponder, this matchup reveals. The Force flows strongly through AC Milan, perched atop Serie A with 16 points from 7 games. Their recent form speaks of wisdom and power - 7 victories in their last 10 encounters, including impressive triumphs over Napoli (2-1) and Fiorentina (2-1). At their home sanctuary, Milan have won 83.33% of their recent battles, keeping clean sheets in 60% of all contests. Pisa, however, wanders in the darkness of the relegation zone. Winless in their last 10 matches (0W-5D-5L), they struggle to find the path to goal with merely 0.5 goals per game. Their away journey has been fruitless - no victories in 6 attempts, and they've failed to score in 7 of their last 10 matches. Recent draws against Verona (0-0) and Fiorentina (0-0) show their defensive resolve, but their attack remains as silent as the empty space between stars. The statistical gap between these two sides is vast indeed. Milan averages 16.22 shots per game to Pisa's 8.22, with superior possession (55.8% vs 41.9%) and far better shot accuracy (34.2% vs 19.1%). The Rossoneri have demonstrated their quality against strong opposition, while Pisa has shown only the ability to survive, not thrive. In betting, as in life, one must see beyond the obvious. While Milan's victory seems certain at 1.27, greater value may lie elsewhere. Pisa's offensive struggles combined with Milan's defensive solidity at home creates an interesting dynamic for those willing to look deeper. Key Points: - AC Milan sit 1st in Serie A with 16 points; Pisa languish 20th with 3 points - Milan have won 83.33% of recent home games; Pisa have 0% away win rate - Pisa have scored just 0.5 goals per game; failed to score in 7 of last 10 matches - Milan kept clean sheets in 60% of recent games; Pisa only 30% - Recent results show Milan beating top teams while Pisa draws with struggling sides The path to value becomes clear when we consider Pisa's attacking impotence. With their inability to score and Milan's solid home defense, the Both Teams to Score - No market offers wisdom beyond the obvious home win.

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📝 Match Preview

AC Milan vs Pisa: Home Advantage Looks Overwhelming
Recommendation:HOME_WIN
Odds:1.27
Expected Value:+4.1%

This Serie A clash presents one of the most stark contrasts in form and league position we'll see all season. AC Milan, sitting atop the table with 16 points from 7 games, hosts a Pisa side languishing at the bottom with just 3 points. The home side's recent form has been exceptional, with 7 wins from their last 10 matches (70% win rate) and a formidable home record showing 83.33% wins at their own stadium. Their defensive solidity is particularly impressive, keeping clean sheets in 60% of recent games while conceding just 0.80 goals per game. Recent victories against quality opposition like Napoli (2-1), Udinese (3-0), and Bologna (1-0) demonstrate their ability to perform against different styles of play. Pisa's situation could not be more different. They remain winless after 7 league matches, with their last 10 games showing 0 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses. Their away form is especially concerning - 0% win rate on the road, scoring only 0.83 goals per game while conceding 1.83. Recent results include a humiliating 4-0 defeat at Bologna and losses to Napoli (3-2), Udinese (1-0), and AS Roma (1-0). Their only draws have come against similarly struggling sides like Verona and Fiorentina. The statistical gap is overwhelming. AC Milan averages 2.20 points per game compared to Pisa's 0.50. At home, Milan scores 1.83 goals per game while Pisa manages just 0.83 away. The defensive contrast is equally stark - Milan concedes 0.67 at home versus Pisa's 1.83 on the road. With no head-to-head history to complicate the analysis, we can focus purely on current form and performance levels. The data points decisively toward a home victory. **Key Points:** - AC Milan leads Serie A with 16 points; Pisa sits last with 3 points - Milan has 83.33% home win rate; Pisa has 0% away win rate - Milan averages 1.83 goals scored at home vs Pisa's 0.83 away - Pisa is winless in 10 matches (0W, 5D, 5L) - Milan has 60% clean sheet rate; Pisa scores only 0.5 goals per game overall **Summary:** The disparity between these teams is too significant to ignore. AC Milan's dominant home form against Pisa's winless away record creates a clear betting opportunity that meets my strict criteria for certainty. While the odds may seem modest at 1.27, they represent genuine value given the overwhelming evidence pointing to a home victory.

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📝 Match Preview

Milan to feast on bottom-feeders Pisa
Recommendation:BOTH_TEAMS_TO_SCORE_NO
Odds:1.67
Expected Value:+8.6%

Ag man, this looks like a proper braai where one team brought the meat and the other brought... well, nothing! AC Milan are sitting pretty at the top of Serie A with 16 points from 7 games, while Pisa are rock bottom with just 3 points and ZERO wins this season. That's not just bad, that's kak bad! Milan have been firing at home with an 83.33% win rate, scoring 1.83 goals per game and keeping it tight at the back with only 0.67 conceded. They've been taking down some proper teams too - beating Napoli 2-1, smashing Udinese 3-0, and grinding out a 1-0 win against Bologna. Their only slip-up was that opening day 1-2 loss to Cremonese, but they've been on a roll since then. Pisa? Ja ne... they're struggling to even look like a Serie A team. Zero wins in 10 games, scoring a pathetic 0.5 goals per game, and they haven't won a single away match. Their recent results tell the story - 0-0 draws against Verona and Fiorentina, and a humiliating 0-4 thrashing by Bologna. They can't score, can't win, and look completely lost. The stats don't lie either. Milan are averaging double the shots of Pisa (16.22 vs 8.22), have much better possession (55.8% vs 41.9%), and their shot accuracy is nearly double Pisa's (34.2% vs 19.1%). It's like watching professionals play against a bunch of guys who'd rather be having a beer. With Milan's solid defense keeping 6 clean sheets in 10 games and Pisa's attack being more useless than a vegetarian at a braai, I'm backing against both teams finding the net here. Key Points: - AC Milan top of Serie A vs Pisa dead last - Milan have 83.33% home win rate, Pisa have 0% away win rate - Pisa have scored only 5 goals in 10 games (0.5 per game) - Milan have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 games - Pisa haven't won a single match all season - Milan averaging double the shots and much better possession stats This one's as straightforward as they come - Milan should win comfortably, and Pisa probably won't score. BTTS No looks like the smart play here.

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📝 Match Preview

Milan's Mismatch Against Bottom-Boys Pisa
Recommendation:UNDER_2_5
Odds:2.20
Expected Value:+25.4%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one! It's top versus bottom, the classic tale of the haves and have-nots. AC Milan are sitting pretty at the summit of Serie A with 16 points from 7 games, while Pisa are propping up the entire league with a measly 3 points. That's not just a gap, that's a chasm! Milan have been proper decent lately - 7 wins in their last 10 games, scoring 1.7 goals per game while keeping it tight at the back with only 0.8 conceded. At home, they're even better, winning 83% of their games and finding the net 1.83 times per match. Their recent results show they can handle the big boys too - beating Napoli 2-1 and Fiorentina 2-1, plus a solid 0-0 draw with Juventus. Pisa, bless 'em, are having a right mare. Zero wins in 10 games, only managing to score half a goal per game. They've drawn five times, including two 0-0s recently against Verona and Fiorentina, which tells you they're not exactly free-scoring. Away from home? Forget it - 0% win rate and shipping nearly two goals per game on their travels. The stats don't lie here. Milan are averaging nearly 17 shots per game with 34% accuracy, while Pisa are only managing 8 shots with a paltry 19% accuracy. It's like comparing a proper striker with your uncle having a kickabout in the park. Now, you might look at Milan's odds of 1.27 and think 'that's a bit short', and you'd be right. But where's the value? I'm looking at the goals market. Pisa can't score for toffee - only 0.5 per game - and Milan are solid defensively. We're looking at an expected 2.58 goals total, but given Pisa's recent 0-0s and Milan's tendency to do just enough, Under 2.5 at 2.20 looks tasty. Both teams to score? No chance. Pisa have only managed to score in 30% of their games, and Milan have kept 6 clean sheets in 10. BTTS No at 1.67 could be worth a punt, but I'm sticking with the goals total for better value.

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