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Match analysis

ItalySerie A

Torino vs AC Milan

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Full time2:3HT 2–1

Match Timeline

10'
N. Vlasic⚽
Normal Goal → N. Vlasic
17'
D. Zapata⚽
Normal Goal → N. Vlasic
19'
Mike Maignan🟨
Yellow Card
24'
A. Rabiot⚽
Normal Goal → F. Tomori
31'
R. Leao🔄
Substitution 1 → S. Ricci
53'
Valentino Lazaro🟨
Yellow Card
56'
Faustino Anjorin🟨
Yellow Card
59'
F. Anjorin🔄
Substitution 1 → C. Casadei
66'
D. Bartesaghi🔄
Substitution 2 → C. Pulisic
67'
C. Pulisic⚽
Normal Goal → A. Saelemaekers
77'
C. Pulisic⚽
Normal Goal → S. Ricci
78'
A. Tameze🔄
Substitution 2 → A. Masina
84'
C. Adams🔄
Substitution 3 → Z. Aboukhlal
84'
M. Pedersen🔄
Substitution 4 → N. Nkounkou
84'
V. Lazaro🔄
Substitution 5 → C. Ngonge
88'
A. Saelemaekers🔄
Substitution 3 → P. Estupinan

Match Statistics

4Shots on Goal6
2Shots off Goal5
8Total Shots17
2Blocked Shots6
4Shots insidebox13
4Shots outsidebox4
16Fouls7
2Corner Kicks4
1Offsides3
36Ball Possession64
2Yellow Cards1
3Goalkeeper Saves2
309Total passes551
242Passes accurate495
78Passes %90
0.98expected_goals1.91
-1goals_prevented-1

Tipster previews (6)

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceLost

The Force of Form Meets Home Wisdom

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
58%
Odds
1.80
Model EV
+4.4%

In the grand theater of Serie A, a fascinating encounter awaits. AC Milan, perched atop the table like a wise master on his meditation throne, brings their disciplined ways to the domain of Torino. But the home side, though struggling in the standings, possesses a secret power …

Mr SimpleLost

Milan's Test in Turin: Low-Scoring Affair Expected

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
58%
Odds
1.80
Model EV
+4.4%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Monday night footy in Turin. On paper, it's top versus bottom half, but sometimes the numbers tell a different story, don't they? Torino are sitting 13th with just 14 points, and blimey, their recent form's been a bit shaky. They just…

PajimonWon

Milan to continue title charge in Turin

The pickAC Milan win

Chance
60%
Odds
1.75
Model EV
+5.0%

Alright boet, let's get down to business! We've got a proper mismatch here - top of the table AC Milan traveling to face 13th-placed Torino. This is like bringing a proper braai to a salad bar... just doesn't make sense! AC Milan are sitting pretty at the top of Serie A with 28…

The Big "O"Won

Goal Fest Expected When Torino Hosts Milan

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
52%
Odds
2.00
Model EV
+4.0%

Alright folks, The Big O is here to talk goals, goals, and more goals! When Torino hosts AC Milan, we're looking at a match that has all the ingredients for a scoring spectacular. Let's start with Torino's home form - these boys know how to put on a show in front of their own…

Umery UnderdogLost

Torino Ready to Bite Top Dogs

The pickTorino win

Chance
28%
Odds
4.75
Model EV
+33.0%

Oh, what a delightful matchup we have here! While everyone will be looking at the league table and seeing AC Milan perched at the top, my underdog senses are tingling with excitement for Torino's chances at home. Let's start with the most fascinating statistic - Torino's…

Value VinnyLost

Milan's Away Woes Make Torino Home Win Value Play

The pickTorino win

Chance
30%
Odds
4.75
Model EV
+42.5%

The odds compilers have got this one wrong, and that's where I find my edge. AC Milan may sit top of Serie A with 28 points, but the market is ignoring crucial context that makes the 4.75 price on Torino's home win an absolute gift. Let's look at the numbers that matter. Milan's…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Torino

3W 4D 3L1.30 pts/game

AC Milan

5W 4D 1L1.90 pts/game

Per game

Torino at home vs AC Milan away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+195AC Milan
Venue edge
+106AC Milan
Rating period
Match snapshot
Torino versus AC Milan: long term Elo, before the match
TorinoHomeRatingAC MilanAway
Strength
1,557Overall1,752
1,575Match venue1,682
1,575At home1,718
1,523Away1,682
Attack & defence
1,462Attack1,616
1,585Defence1,651
1,435Home attack1,595
1,470Away attack1,616
1,632Home defence1,653
1,573Away defence1,600
Match profile
1,648Goal environment1,882
1,488Home goals1,548
1,660Away goals1,833
1,485Possession1,499
Specialist ratings
1,515Set-piece attack1,469
1,514Set-piece defence1,471
1,539Close games1,650
1,559Winning margin1,782

Match venue compares Torino at home with AC Milan away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

TorinoTorino1:1

Starting XI

81Franco IsraelG
23Saúl CocoD
20Valentino LazaroM
19Che AdamsF
13Guillermo MaripánD
14Faustino AnjorinM
91Duván ZapataF
61Adrien TamezeD
10Nikola VlašićM
32Kristjan AsllaniM
16Marcus PedersenM

AC MilanAC Milan1:1

Starting XI

16Mike MaignanG
31Strahinja PavlovićD
33Davide BartesaghiM
10Rafael LeãoF
46Matteo GabbiaD
12Adrien RabiotM
18Christopher NkunkuF
23Fikayo TomoriD
14Luka ModrićM
8Ruben Loftus-CheekM
56Alexis SaelemaekersM