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Match analysis

ItalySerie A

AC Milan vs Genoa

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Full time1:1HT 0–1

Match Timeline

28'
L. Colombo⚽
Normal Goal → R. Malinovskyi
46'
Y. Fofana🔄
Substitution 1 → R. Loftus-Cheek
60'
Christian Pulišić⚽
Goal cancelled
63'
M. Thorsby🔄
Substitution 1 → P. Masini
64'
R. Malinovskyi🔄
Substitution 2 → M. E. Ellertsson
65'
A. Saelemaekers🔄
Substitution 2 → N. Fullkrug
70'
Matteo Gabbia🟨
Yellow Card
75'
M. Gabbia🔄
Substitution 3 → Z. Athekame
75'
Vitinha🔄
Substitution 3 → J. Ekhator
80'
Nicola Leali🟨
Yellow Card
83'
A. Martin🔄
Substitution 4 → N. Stanciu
83'
L. Colombo🔄
Substitution 5 → S. Otoa
90'
R. Leao⚽
Normal Goal
90+7'
Fikayo Tomori🟨
Yellow Card
90+7'
Mike Maignan🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

8Shots on Goal2
9Shots off Goal3
32Total Shots7
15Blocked Shots2
25Shots insidebox5
7Shots outsidebox2
13Fouls8
12Corner Kicks1
1Offsides1
61Ball Possession39
3Yellow Cards1
1Goalkeeper Saves7
552Total passes373
495Passes accurate300
90Passes %80
2.32expected_goals1.32
1goals_prevented1

Tipster previews (6)

Mr CertaintyLost

Milan's Home Fortress to Withstand Genoa Challenge

The pickAC Milan win

Chance
78%
Odds
1.42
Model EV
+10.8%

As Serie A's second-placed side hosts a struggling Genoa team sitting 17th, the statistical gulf between these teams is impossible to ignore. AC Milan have compiled an impressive 38 points from 17 matches, losing just once all season, while Genoa have managed only 15 points from…

Mr SimpleLost

Milan to Make Light Work of Leaky Genoa

The pickAC Milan win

Chance
75%
Odds
1.42
Model EV
+6.5%

Right then, let's talk about the San Siro on a Wednesday night. AC Milan, sitting pretty in second, just a point off the top, welcome a Genoa side who are having a proper look over their shoulder at the relegation zone. On the face of it, this should be a straightforward one for…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

AC Milan

6W 2D 2L2.00 pts/game

Genoa

3W 3D 4L1.20 pts/game

Per game

AC Milan at home vs Genoa away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+253AC Milan
Venue edge
+211AC Milan
Rating period
Match snapshot
AC Milan versus Genoa: long term Elo, before the match
AC MilanHomeRatingGenoaAway
Strength
1,761Overall1,509
1,715Match venue1,504
1,715At home1,497
1,697Away1,504
Attack & defence
1,630Attack1,480
1,646Defence1,542
1,607Home attack1,442
1,621Away attack1,472
1,648Home defence1,566
1,600Away defence1,550
Match profile
1,892Goal environment1,550
1,555Home goals1,555
1,837Away goals1,495
1,504Possession1,490
Specialist ratings
1,490Set-piece attack1,466
1,490Set-piece defence1,468
1,661Close games1,488
1,792Winning margin1,512

Match venue compares AC Milan at home with Genoa away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

AC MilanAC Milan1:1

Starting XI

16Mike MaignanG
31Strahinja PavlovićD
33Davide BartesaghiM
11Christian PulišićF
46Matteo GabbiaD
12Adrien RabiotM
10Rafael LeãoF
23Fikayo TomoriD
14Luka ModrićM
19Youssouf FofanaM
56Alexis SaelemaekersM

GenoaGenoa1:1

Starting XI

1Nicola LealiG
22Johan VásquezD
3Aarón MartínM
29Lorenzo ColomboF
5Leo ØstigårdD
2Morten ThorsbyM
9VitinhaF
27Alessandro MarcandalliD
32Morten FrendrupM
17Ruslan MalinovskyiM
15Brooke Norton-CuffyM