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Match analysis

ItalySerie A

AS Roma vs AC Milan

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Full time1:1HT 0–0

Match Timeline

46'
A. Saelemaekers🔄
Substitution 1 → Z. Athekame
51'
Adrien Rabiot🟨
Yellow Card
55'
Zachary Athekame🟨
Yellow Card
59'
M. Kone🔄
Substitution 1 → N. Pisilli
62'
K. De Winter⚽
Normal Goal → L. Modric
68'
R. Leao🔄
Substitution 2 → N. Fullkrug
68'
C. Nkunku🔄
Substitution 3 → C. Pulisic
69'
P. Dybala🔄
Substitution 2 → L. Pellegrini
69'
D. Malen🔄
Substitution 3 → R. Vaz
70'
Luka Modrić🟨
Yellow Card
74'
Mike Maignan🟨
Yellow Card
74'
L. Pellegrini
Penalty
79'
S. Ricci🔄
Substitution 4 → R. Loftus-Cheek
85'
M. Soule🔄
Substitution 4 → L. Venturino

Match Statistics

7Shots on Goal2
3Shots off Goal2
15Total Shots5
5Blocked Shots1
11Shots insidebox4
4Shots outsidebox1
15Fouls11
5Corner Kicks3
1Offsides1
58Ball Possession42
0Yellow Cards4
1Goalkeeper Saves6
586Total passes434
511Passes accurate359
87Passes %83
2.72expected_goals0.45
1goals_prevented1

Tipster previews (4)

The Big "O"Lost

Serie A Showdown: Goals Galore Expected in Rome

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
50%
Odds
2.20
Model EV
+10.0%

When two of Italy's most historic clubs collide, fireworks usually follow. And when The Big O looks at this fixture, I see the perfect recipe for goals, excitement, and the kind of action that gets me out of bed in the morning. Let's dive into why the Over 2.5 Goals market is…

Mr SimpleWon

Top Four Tussle: Will Goals Fly in Rome?

The pickBTTS Yes

Chance
60%
Odds
1.80
Model EV
+8.0%

Right then, let's talk about the big one in Serie A this weekend. Fourth-placed AS Roma hosting second-placed AC Milan. Four points separate 'em, and this could be a proper cracker. First, the form guide. Roma are a funny old side this season – they've not drawn a single league…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

AS Roma

7W 0D 3L2.10 pts/game

AC Milan

5W 3D 2L1.80 pts/game

Per game

AS Roma at home vs AC Milan away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+37AC Milan
Venue edge
+26AS Roma
Rating period
Match snapshot
AS Roma versus AC Milan: long term Elo, before the match
AS RomaHomeRatingAC MilanAway
Strength
1,723Overall1,760
1,729Match venue1,703
1,729At home1,713
1,621Away1,703
Attack & defence
1,550Attack1,622
1,722Defence1,650
1,586Home attack1,594
1,497Away attack1,629
1,701Home defence1,652
1,658Away defence1,605
Match profile
2,062Goal environment1,888
1,855Home goals1,548
1,707Away goals1,840
1,526Possession1,506
Specialist ratings
1,531Set-piece attack1,503
1,530Set-piece defence1,503
1,591Close games1,657
1,757Winning margin1,793

Match venue compares AS Roma at home with AC Milan away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

AS RomaAS Roma1:1

Starting XI

99Mile SvilarG
87Daniele GhilardiD
43WesleyM
18Matías SouléF
14Donyell MalenF
5Evan NdickaD
17Manu KonéM
21Paulo DybalaF
23Gianluca ManciniD
4Bryan CristanteM
19Zeki ÇelikM

AC MilanAC Milan1:1

Starting XI

16Mike MaignanG
5Koni De WinterD
33Davide BartesaghiM
10Rafael LeãoF
46Matteo GabbiaD
12Adrien RabiotM
18Christopher NkunkuF
23Fikayo TomoriD
14Luka ModrićM
4Samuele RicciM
56Alexis SaelemaekersM