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Match analysis

EnglandPremier League

Brighton vs Brentford

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Premier League fixture.

Full time2:1HT 0–1

Match Timeline

15'
Olivier Boscagli🟨
Yellow Card
29'
I. Thiago
Penalty
36'
Dango Ouattara🟨
Yellow Card
46'
O. Boscagli🔄
Substitution 1 → L. Dunk
46'
C. Baleba🔄
Substitution 2 → M. De Cuyper
64'
Diego Gómez🟨
Yellow Card
65'
D. Ouattara🔄
Substitution 1 → K. Lewis-Potter
70'
D. Gomez🔄
Substitution 3 → J. Hinshelwood
71'
D. Welbeck⚽
Normal Goal → Y. Minteh
80'
K. Ajer🔄
Substitution 2 → A. Hickey
80'
Y. Yarmolyuk🔄
Substitution 3 → M. Jensen
80'
M. Damsgaard🔄
Substitution 4 → V. Janelt
84'
J. Hinshelwood⚽
Normal Goal
89'
Y. Minteh🔄
Substitution 4 → B. Gruda
90'
G. Rutter🔄
Substitution 5 → J. Veltman
90+1'
Brajan Gruda🟨
Yellow Card
90+4'
Bart Verbruggen🟨
Yellow Card
90+5'
Vitaly Janelt🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

5Shots on Goal4
8Shots off Goal5
14Total Shots10
1Blocked Shots1
8Shots insidebox6
6Shots outsidebox4
10Fouls9
7Corner Kicks4
0Offsides1
64Ball Possession36
4Yellow Cards2
3Goalkeeper Saves3
561Total passes309
466Passes accurate231
83Passes %75
1.23expected_goals1.86
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (2)

Umery UnderdogLost

Brentford Ready to Bark at Brighton's Door

The pickBrentford win

Chance
30%
Odds
4.00
Model EV
+20.0%

Oh, what a delightful matchup we have here! Two teams neck-and-neck in the Premier League table, both sitting pretty on 16 points, yet the bookmakers have made one clear favorite and one clear underdog. As someone who loves rooting for the little guys, I couldn't be more excited…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Brighton

4W 3D 3L1.50 pts/game

Brentford

5W 2D 3L1.70 pts/game

Per game

Brighton at home vs Brentford away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Premier League

Overall edge
+24Brighton
Venue edge
+131Brighton
Rating period
Match snapshot
Brighton versus Brentford: long term Elo, before the match
BrightonHomeRatingBrentfordAway
Strength
1,647Overall1,623
1,637Match venue1,506
1,637At home1,604
1,552Away1,506
Attack & defence
1,603Attack1,576
1,572Defence1,553
1,569Home attack1,594
1,563Away attack1,503
1,577Home defence1,513
1,539Away defence1,547
Match profile
1,688Goal environment1,745
1,572Home goals1,643
1,617Away goals1,602
1,498Possession1,487
Specialist ratings
1,522Set-piece attack1,519
1,521Set-piece defence1,518
1,599Close games1,550
1,662Winning margin1,642

Match venue compares Brighton at home with Brentford away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

BrightonBrighton1:1

Starting XI

1Bart VerbruggenG
24Ferdi KadıoğluD
26Yasin AyariM
25Diego GómezM
18Danny WelbeckF
21Olivier BoscagliD
17Carlos BalebaM
10Georginio RutterM
6Jan Paul van HeckeD
11Yankuba MintehM
27Mats WiefferD

BrentfordBrentford1:1

Starting XI

1Caoimhin KelleherG
20Kristoffer AjerD
18Yehor YarmolyukM
7Kevin SchadeM
9Igor ThiagoF
4Sepp van den BergD
6Jordan HendersonM
24Mikkel DamsgaardM
22Nathan CollinsD
19Dango OuattaraM
33Michael KayodeD