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Match analysis

EnglandPremier League

Newcastle vs Burnley

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Premier League fixture.

Full time2:1HT 2–0

Match Timeline

31'
Bruno Guimaraes⚽
Normal Goal
35'
Kyle Walker🟨
Yellow Card
43'
Lucas Pires🟥
Red Card
45'
A. Gordon⚽
Normal Goal → A. Gordon
45+6'
Anthony Gordon
Penalty confirmed
46'
L. Foster🔄
Substitution 1 → J. Worrall
52'
Valentino Livramento🟨
Yellow Card
63'
D. Burn🔄
Substitution 1 → L. Hall
63'
J. Willock🔄
Substitution 2 → L. Miley
65'
Florentino🔄
Substitution 2 → J. Laurent
74'
A. Gordon🔄
Substitution 3 → Joelinton
74'
N. Woltemade🔄
Substitution 4 → Y. Wissa
86'
J. Bruun Larsen🔄
Substitution 3 → J. Anthony
86'
A. Broja🔄
Substitution 4 → Z. Flemming
89'
Josh Laurent🟨
Yellow Card
90'
Z. Flemming⚽
Normal Goal → Z. Flemming
90+2'
Zian Flemming
Penalty confirmed
90+3'
Jacob Ramsey🟨
Yellow Card
90+5'
H. Ekdal🔄
Substitution 5 → M. Edwards
90+6'
J. Ramsey🔄
Substitution 5 → S. Tonali

Match Statistics

7Shots on Goal3
7Shots off Goal2
17Total Shots8
3Blocked Shots3
6Shots insidebox4
11Shots outsidebox4
9Fouls11
9Corner Kicks9
3Offsides2
69Ball Possession31
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards1
2Goalkeeper Saves6
586Total passes254
533Passes accurate183
91Passes %72
1.89expected_goals1.38
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (6)

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceWon

Newcastle vs Burnley: A Tale of Two Forces

The pickBTTS Yes

Chance
60%
Odds
1.95
Model EV
+17.0%

In the grand theater of football, much like the force, there exists a balance between light and dark, strength and weakness. As we gather to witness Newcastle versus Burnley, the patterns of recent form reveal a profound truth about the nature of momentum and home advantage…

PajimonLost

Newcastle to Shut Out Struggling Burnley

The pickBTTS No

Chance
58%
Odds
1.80
Model EV
+4.4%

Alright boet, let's get down to business! Newcastle hosting Burnley at home, and this looks like a proper mismatch if you ask me. The Magpies have been solid at home this season, winning 83% of their home games and scoring a tasty 2.17 goals per game on their own patch. Their…

Value VinnyWon

Newcastle vs Burnley: Goal-Fest Value on Tyneside

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
71%
Odds
1.62
Model EV
+15.0%

Let's cut through the noise and look at the cold, hard numbers. Newcastle have been a fortress at home this season, winning 83.33% of their home games while averaging 2.17 goals per match. Their defensive record at home is particularly impressive, conceding just 0.67 goals per…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Newcastle

6W 1D 3L1.90 pts/game

Burnley

2W 0D 8L0.60 pts/game

Per game

Newcastle at home vs Burnley away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Premier League

Overall edge
+242Newcastle
Venue edge
+261Newcastle
Rating period
Match snapshot
Newcastle versus Burnley: long term Elo, before the match
NewcastleHomeRatingBurnleyAway
Strength
1,645Overall1,403
1,690Match venue1,429
1,690At home1,411
1,548Away1,429
Attack & defence
1,583Attack1,452
1,603Defence1,466
1,635Home attack1,388
1,510Away attack1,475
1,627Home defence1,513
1,554Away defence1,450
Match profile
1,928Goal environment1,490
1,698Home goals1,422
1,730Away goals1,568
1,499Possession1,479
Specialist ratings
1,503Set-piece attack1,444
1,503Set-piece defence1,446
1,586Close games1,428
1,666Winning margin1,401

Match venue compares Newcastle at home with Burnley away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

NewcastleNewcastle1:1

Starting XI

32A. RamsdaleG
33D. BurnD
41J. RamseyM
10A. GordonF
12M. ThiawD
39Bruno GuimaraesM
27N. WoltemadeF
5F. ScharD
28J. WillockM
20A. ElangaF
21V. LivramentoD

BurnleyBurnley1:1

Starting XI

1M. DubravkaG
23Lucas PiresD
16FlorentinoM
7J. Bruun LarsenF
5M. EsteveD
24J. CullenM
27A. BrojaF
18H. EkdalD
8L. UgochukwuM
9L. FosterF
2K. WalkerD