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Match analysis

EnglandPremier League

Newcastle vs Aston Villa

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Premier League fixture.

Full time0:2HT 0–1

Match Timeline

19'
E. Buendia⚽
Normal Goal → M. Rogers
27'
Joelinton🟨
Yellow Card
48'
Joelinton🔄
Substitution 1 → J. Ramsey
59'
J. Sancho🔄
Substitution 1 → L. Bailey
62'
Y. Wissa🔄
Substitution 2 → N. Woltemade
63'
A. Gordon🔄
Substitution 3 → A. Elanga
74'
Y. Tielemans🔄
Substitution 2 → L. Bogarde
75'
E. Buendia🔄
Substitution 3 → L. Digne
75'
P. Torres🔄
Substitution 4 → T. Mings
79'
Lucas Digne🟨
Yellow Card
84'
S. Tonali🔄
Substitution 4 → J. Willock
88'
O. Watkins⚽
Normal Goal → L. Digne
89'
A. Onana🔄
Substitution 5 → V. Lindelof
90+2'
Ian Maatsen🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

4Shots on Goal8
4Shots off Goal4
15Total Shots14
7Blocked Shots2
9Shots insidebox7
6Shots outsidebox7
7Fouls12
6Corner Kicks5
2Offsides0
60Ball Possession40
1Yellow Cards2
6Goalkeeper Saves4
504Total passes349
432Passes accurate270
86Passes %77
2.3expected_goals1.16
1goals_prevented1

Tipster previews (6)

Umery UnderdogWon

Villa's Underdog Spirit to Upset St. James' Park?

The pickAston Villa win

Chance
30%
Odds
3.80
Model EV
+14.0%

The Premier League serves up a fascinating clash at St. James' Park as 8th-placed Newcastle host high-flying Aston Villa, who sit 3rd. On paper, the visitors are the stronger side with a 10-point cushion, but the betting market has installed the Magpies as clear favourites at…

PajimonLost

Goals Galore Expected as Newcastle Host Villa

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
65%
Odds
1.62
Model EV
+5.3%

Alright, let's braai this analysis! We've got a proper Premier League clash here with Newcastle welcoming Aston Villa to St. James' Park. Both teams are in the mix for Europe, with Villa sitting pretty in 3rd and Newcastle just three points off the top four. This isn't just a…

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceLost

At St James' Park, Goals There Will Be

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
68%
Odds
1.62
Model EV
+10.2%

A clash of two forces, this is. Newcastle, in eighth place with 33 points, welcomes Aston Villa, sitting proudly in third with 43. The table speaks of separation, but the recent form whispers a different tale. Both have gathered points at a similar rate over their last ten…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Newcastle

5W 3D 2L1.80 pts/game

Aston Villa

7W 1D 2L2.20 pts/game

Per game

Newcastle at home vs Aston Villa away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Premier League

Overall edge
+91Aston Villa
Venue edge
+106Newcastle
Rating period
Match snapshot
Newcastle versus Aston Villa: long term Elo, before the match
NewcastleHomeRatingAston VillaAway
Strength
1,638Overall1,730
1,704Match venue1,599
1,704At home1,718
1,529Away1,599
Attack & defence
1,570Attack1,579
1,598Defence1,620
1,648Home attack1,606
1,485Away attack1,517
1,607Home defence1,629
1,569Away defence1,559
Match profile
1,932Goal environment1,842
1,715Home goals1,695
1,717Away goals1,647
1,512Possession1,513
Specialist ratings
1,525Set-piece attack1,514
1,524Set-piece defence1,513
1,569Close games1,699
1,662Winning margin1,740

Match venue compares Newcastle at home with Aston Villa away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

NewcastleNewcastle1:1

Starting XI

1Nick PopeG
3Lewis HallD
7JoelintonM
10Anthony GordonF
4Sven BotmanD
8Sandro TonaliM
9Yoane WissaF
12Malick ThiawD
67Lewis MileyM
11Harvey BarnesF
2Kieran TrippierD

Aston VillaAston Villa1:1

Starting XI

23Emiliano MartínezG
22Ian MaatsenD
8Youri TielemansM
10Emiliano BuendíaM
11Ollie WatkinsF
14Pau TorresD
24Amadou OnanaM
27Morgan RogersM
4Ezri KonsaD
19Jadon SanchoM
2Matty CashD