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Match analysis

EnglandPremier League

Brighton vs Nottingham Forest

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Premier League fixture.

Match Timeline

6'
D. Gomez⚽
Normal Goal → P. Gross
13'
M. Gibbs-White⚽
Normal Goal → Igor Jesus
15'
D. Welbeck⚽
Normal Goal → J. Hinshelwood
30'
Elliot Anderson🟨
Yellow Card
55'
Mats Wieffer🟨
Yellow Card
56'
O. Hutchinson🔄
Substitution 1 → Cunha
56'
N. Williams🔄
Substitution 2 → L. Netz
71'
M. Wieffer🔄
Substitution 1 → J. Veltman
74'
C. Hudson-Odoi🔄
Substitution 3 → D. Bakwa
82'
O. Aina🔄
Substitution 4 → D. Ndoye
83'
Igor Jesus🔄
Substitution 5 → T. Awoniyi
84'
Kaoru Mitoma🟨
Yellow Card
86'
D. Gomez🔄
Substitution 2 → S. March
86'
J. Milner🔄
Substitution 3 → C. Baleba
90+1'
K. Mitoma🔄
Substitution 4 → M. De Cuyper
90+3'
Lewis Dunk🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

7Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal3
14Total Shots13
2Blocked Shots6
7Shots insidebox7
7Shots outsidebox6
12Fouls13
4Corner Kicks4
0Offsides3
53Ball Possession47
3Yellow Cards1
3Goalkeeper Saves5
507Total passes436
438Passes accurate372
86Passes %85
1.31expected_goals0.93
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (4)

Value VinnyLost

Statistical Parity Points to Value in the Draw

The pickDraw

Chance
32%
Odds
3.60
Model EV
+15.2%

When the odds compilers set the draw at 3.60 for this Premier League clash, they made a classic mistake: overvaluing home advantage and league position while undervaluing raw recent performance metrics. Let me show you why the numbers scream stalemate. Brighton sit 14th with 34…

PajimonLost

Forest's Defence Looks Lekker for a Clean Sheet

The pickBTTS No

Chance
65%
Odds
2.05
Model EV
+33.3%

Howzit my bru! Grab a cold one and pull up a chair by the braai, because this Premier League clash between Brighton and Nottingham Forest has got me thinking about defence, defence, defence. And ja, when I see a bet that looks as solid as a well-done boerewors, I've got to share…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Brighton

3W 3D 4L1.20 pts/game

Nottingham Forest

3W 3D 4L1.20 pts/game

Per game

Brighton at home vs Nottingham Forest away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Premier League

Overall edge
+65Brighton
Venue edge
+74Brighton
Rating period
Match snapshot
Brighton versus Nottingham Forest: long term Elo, before the match
BrightonHomeRatingNottingham ForestAway
Strength
1,602Overall1,537
1,605Match venue1,531
1,605At home1,516
1,554Away1,531
Attack & defence
1,550Attack1,463
1,603Defence1,576
1,539Home attack1,453
1,547Away attack1,502
1,586Home defence1,587
1,570Away defence1,519
Match profile
1,678Goal environment1,615
1,565Home goals1,508
1,613Away goals1,607
1,512Possession1,489
Specialist ratings
1,499Set-piece attack1,535
1,499Set-piece defence1,534
1,536Close games1,525
1,623Winning margin1,545

Match venue compares Brighton at home with Nottingham Forest away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

BrightonBrighton1:1

Starting XI

1Bart VerbruggenG
24Ferdi KadıoğluD
30Pascal GroßM
22Kaoru MitomaM
18Danny WelbeckF
5Lewis DunkD
20James MilnerM
13Jack HinshelwoodM
6Jan Paul van HeckeD
25Diego GómezM
27Mats WiefferD

Nottingham ForestNottingham Forest1:1

Starting XI

26Matz SelsG
3Neco WilliamsD
8Elliot AndersonM
7Callum Hudson-OdoiM
19Igor JesusF
5MurilloD
6Ibrahim SangaréM
10Morgan Gibbs-WhiteM
31Nikola MilenkovićD
21Omari HutchinsonM
34Ola AinaD