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Match analysis

EnglandPremier League

Newcastle vs Everton

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Premier League fixture.

Full time2:3HT 1–2

Match Timeline

19'
J. Branthwaite⚽
Normal Goal → J. Garner
32'
J. Ramsey⚽
Normal Goal → S. Tonali
34'
Beto⚽
Normal Goal
46'
J. Ramsey🔄
Substitution 1 → J. Willock
53'
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall🟨
Yellow Card
56'
N. Woltemade🔄
Substitution 2 → H. Barnes
56'
A. Elanga🔄
Substitution 3 → J. Murphy
61'
Joe Willock🟨
Yellow Card
67'
James Garner🟨
Yellow Card
74'
Beto🔄
Substitution 1 → T. Barry
75'
K. Trippier🔄
Substitution 4 → Y. Wissa
81'
D. McNeil🔄
Substitution 2 → H. Armstrong
82'
J. Murphy⚽
Normal Goal → Joelinton
83'
T. Barry⚽
Normal Goal → K. Dewsbury-Hall
86'
A. Gordon🔄
Substitution 5 → W. Osula
88'
Dan Burn🟨
Yellow Card
89'
K. Dewsbury-Hall🔄
Substitution 3 → M. Keane
90+5'
Thierno Barry🟨
Yellow Card
90+6'
Lewis Hall🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

7Shots on Goal5
6Shots off Goal3
17Total Shots9
4Blocked Shots1
7Shots insidebox4
10Shots outsidebox5
15Fouls7
7Corner Kicks2
0Offsides4
66Ball Possession34
3Yellow Cards3
2Goalkeeper Saves4
571Total passes304
499Passes accurate223
87Passes %73
0.95expected_goals2.13
-1goals_prevented-1

Tipster previews (6)

PajimonWon

Fatigued Newcastle Toil Against Fresh Everton

The pickEverton win

Chance
30%
Odds
4.50
Model EV
+35.0%

Howzit guys! Pajimon here with your weekend football fix. Forget the vegetables, fire up the braai and grab a cold one because we've got a lekker clash coming up this Saturday afternoon as Newcastle host Everton in the Premier League. These two are neck-and-neck in the log with…

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceWon

Fatigue Clouds the North, Goals Await

The pickBTTS Yes

Chance
65%
Odds
1.70
Model EV
+10.5%

Much to learn from the numbers, there is. When the Magpies host the Toffees on Saturday, wisdom demands we look beyond the table, to the rhythm of legs and the whispers of recent battles. Newcastle, eleventh in the realm with thirty-six points, arrives at this junction weary…

Value VinnyWon

Everton Away Price Defies Mathematical Reality

The pickEverton win

Chance
28%
Odds
4.50
Model EV
+26.0%

The market has this one backwards, and the numbers don't lie. Newcastle are trading at 1.73 (implied 58% win probability) based on home advantage and recent European fireworks, but that price completely ignores the defensive hemorrhaging, crippling fixture congestion, and…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Newcastle

4W 1D 5L1.30 pts/game

Everton

3W 4D 3L1.30 pts/game

Per game

Newcastle at home vs Everton away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Premier League

Overall edge
+2Newcastle
Venue edge
+80Newcastle
Rating period
Match snapshot
Newcastle versus Everton: long term Elo, before the match
NewcastleHomeRatingEvertonAway
Strength
1,600Overall1,598
1,670Match venue1,590
1,670At home1,516
1,532Away1,590
Attack & defence
1,564Attack1,463
1,565Defence1,652
1,631Home attack1,463
1,495Away attack1,437
1,580Home defence1,594
1,562Away defence1,652
Match profile
1,950Goal environment1,590
1,722Home goals1,592
1,728Away goals1,498
1,513Possession1,477
Specialist ratings
1,543Set-piece attack1,493
1,542Set-piece defence1,493
1,551Close games1,563
1,613Winning margin1,606

Match venue compares Newcastle at home with Everton away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

NewcastleNewcastle1:1

Starting XI

1N. PopeG
3L. HallD
8S. TonaliM
7JoelintonM
10A. GordonF
33D. BurnD
41J. RamseyM
27N. WoltemadeM
12M. ThiawD
20A. ElangaM
2K. TrippierD

EvertonEverton1:1

Starting XI

1J. PickfordG
16V. MykolenkoD
27I. GueyeM
10I. NdiayeM
9BetoF
32J. BranthwaiteD
37J. GarnerM
22K. Dewsbury-HallM
6J. TarkowskiD
7D. McNeilM
15J. O'BrienD