Skip to main content

Match analysis

NetherlandsEerste Divisie

Helmond Sport vs Jong AZ

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Eerste Divisie fixture.

Full time4:2HT 1–2

Match Timeline

17'
W. Bouziane⚽
Normal Goal
25'
K. Inge🔄
Substitution 1 → J. Zwart
34'
L. Daneels⚽
Normal Goal
43'
S. van Duijn⚽
Normal Goal
46'
J. Ogenia🔄
Substitution 1 → A. Leipold
51'
L. Bajrami
Penalty
56'
Bogdan Budko🟨
Yellow Card
56'
L. Bajrami⚽
Normal Goal → L. Daneels
57'
B. Budko🔄
Substitution 2 → H. de Wit
58'
N. Makanza⚽
Normal Goal → T. Essakkati
69'
W. Bouziane🔄
Substitution 3 → A. Smits
69'
K. Toppenberg🔄
Substitution 4 → Y. van den Ban
69'
N. Twisk🔄
Substitution 5 → D. van der Klaauw
70'
Lennerd Daneels🟨
Yellow Card
77'
D. Vos🔄
Substitution 2 → F. Van Den Eynden
77'
T. Essakkati🔄
Substitution 3 → L. Semic
82'
L. Bajrami🔄
Substitution 4 → J. Geerts
88'
T. Poll🔄
Substitution 5 → H. Ingason

Match Statistics

6Shots on Goal7
2Shots off Goal5
12Total Shots16
4Blocked Shots4
6Shots insidebox12
6Shots outsidebox4
11Fouls14
3Corner Kicks5
54Ball Possession46
1Yellow Cards1
5Goalkeeper Saves2
435Total passes372
359Passes accurate310
83Passes %83

Tipster previews (4)

Mr CertaintyWon

Helmond Sport's Home Fortress vs Struggling Jong AZ

The pickHelmond Sport win

Chance
68%
Odds
2.10
Model EV
+42.8%

This matchup presents a clear statistical advantage for the home side. Helmond Sport has been formidable at home this season, winning 80% of their last 5 home matches and averaging 1.60 goals per game while conceding just 1.00. Their recent home victories include convincing wins…

Mr SimpleWon

Helmond Look Handy at Home vs Struggling Jong AZ

The pickHelmond Sport win

Chance
55%
Odds
2.10
Model EV
+15.5%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Eerste Divisie clash between Helmond Sport and Jong AZ. On paper, this looks like a home banker, but let's dig into the numbers before we get carried away. Helmond Sport are sitting pretty in 9th with 13 points, and more importantly…

Value VinnyWon

Helmond's Home Fortress vs Jong AZ's Travel Woes

The pickHelmond Sport win

Chance
58%
Odds
2.10
Model EV
+21.8%

Let's cut through the noise and look at the cold, hard numbers. Helmond Sport sits 9th in the table with 13 points, while Jong AZ languishes in 17th with just 8 points. That's a significant gap that the odds compilers seem to be underestimating. The home/away split tells the…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Helmond Sport

4W 1D 5L1.30 pts/game

Jong AZ

2W 2D 6L0.80 pts/game

Per game

Helmond Sport at home vs Jong AZ away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Eerste Divisie

Overall edge
+37Jong AZ
Venue edge
+58Helmond Sport
Rating period
Match snapshot
Helmond Sport versus Jong AZ: long term Elo, before the match
Helmond SportHomeRatingJong AZAway
Strength
1,395Overall1,432
1,507Match venue1,449
1,507At home1,453
1,343Away1,449
Attack & defence
1,414Attack1,470
1,466Defence1,466
1,486Home attack1,508
1,370Away attack1,464
1,532Home defence1,464
1,428Away defence1,480
Match profile
1,958Goal environment2,192
1,707Home goals1,892
1,752Away goals1,800
1,498Possession1,514
Specialist ratings
1,502Set-piece attack1,482
1,502Set-piece defence1,483
1,464Close games1,424
1,373Winning margin1,436

Match venue compares Helmond Sport at home with Jong AZ away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

Helmond SportHelmond Sport1:1

Starting XI

1M. BergsenG
5T. PollD
8P. LlonchM
34T. EssakkatiM
9L. BajramiF
28D. VosD
26N. MakanzaM
11L. DaneelsM
4B. KoglinD
2J. OgeniaM
24A. Et TaibiD

Jong AZJong AZ1:1

Starting XI

1K. ZeggenG
5J. EsajasD
8B. BudkoM
11W. BouzianeM
9S. van DuijnF
4B. van DuijlD
6N. TwiskM
10K. BoogaardM
3A. NataliD
7K. ToppenbergM
2K. IngeD