Hello there, little football fans! It's Umery Underdog here, ready to sniff out some hidden value in the Eerste Divisie. Today we're looking at Willem II hosting Almere City FC on April 12, 2026. While the bookmakers see Willem II as the favorite, our mission is to back the overlooked pups. Willem II sits 4th in the table with 59 points, while Almere City FC is just behind in 5th with 55 points. On paper, Willem II looks stronger. However, recent form tells a different story. Almere City FC has been on fire on the road. In their last 5 away games, they won 60% of them. Compare that to Willem II's home form, where they only won 40% of their last 5 home fixtures. That's a huge discrepancy! Looking at the goals, Almere City FC is an attacking force away from home, averaging 2.40 goals scored per game. Willem II's home defense is decent, conceding just 0.80 goals per game, but Almere City FC's attack is potent enough to breach it. Almere City FC has scored in 70% of their last 10 games, while Willem II has kept clean sheets in 50% of their last 10. This suggests a high probability of goals, but the key is who takes the win. Head-to-head history shows a tight rivalry. In the last 6 meetings, Willem II has 3 wins, Almere City FC has 2 wins, and 1 draw. The last meeting ended 1-0 to Willem II, but that was a while ago. The current form suggests Almere City FC is the one to beat today. The odds for an Almere City FC win are sitting at 3.20. This implies a 31% chance, but based on their 60% away win rate in recent games, the true probability is much higher. This is where the value lies. We love finding these long-shot opportunities where the market underestimates the little guy. So, do we have enough confidence? Yes. The away form is too strong to ignore. We're looking for a value edge of at least 6%, and the gap between the 3.20 odds and the 60% win rate provides that comfortably. **Key Points:** - Almere City FC has a 60% win rate in their last 5 away games. - Willem II has only a 40% win rate in their last 5 home games. - Almere City FC averages 2.40 goals scored per game away. - Odds of 3.20 for Almere City FC offer significant value. **Summary:** We are backing the underdog Almere City FC to win this match. The form and odds suggest a great opportunity for value bettors.