Almere City FC hosts Dordrecht in the Eerste Divisie on April 17, 2026. As Mr Certainty, I only recommend bets when the probability of success exceeds 65%. This match presents a compelling case for a Home Win based on historical dominance and current form disparities. The head-to-head record is the strongest signal. In the last 10 meetings, Almere City FC has won 7 times, drawn 3, and never lost to Dordrecht. Specifically, at home, Almere holds a 75% win rate against Dordrecht (3 wins, 1 draw in 4 home meetings). Dordrecht has never won against Almere City FC in 10 attempts. Current form supports the home side. Almere City FC has a 50% win rate in their last 10 games, averaging 2.00 goals scored per game. Their home performance shows 1.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Conversely, Dordrecht has a poor 20% win rate in their last 10 games. Their away form is particularly weak, with a 0% win rate in their last 4 away matches. They average only 1.00 goal scored away and concede 1.75 goals. Goal expectancy suggests a high-scoring environment. Almere averages 1.75 goals at home, while Dordrecht concedes 1.75 goals away. The head-to-head history shows 70% of matches saw Over 2.5 goals. However, given the odds for Over 2.5 Goals are 1.50 (below the 1.6 threshold for safety), I will not recommend it. The Home Win odds of 1.88 offer better value and meet the confidence threshold. Almere City FC's recent trends show a decline in goals scored and points, but the specific matchup against Dordrecht remains heavily skewed in Almere's favor. Dordrecht's defensive improvement is noted, but their inability to win away games is a critical weakness. With a 75% H2H win rate at home and Dordrecht's 0% away win rate, the probability of an Almere City FC victory is estimated above 65%. Key Points: - Almere City FC has not lost to Dordrecht in 10 H2H meetings. - Dordrecht has a 0% win rate in their last 4 away games. - Almere City FC averages 1.75 goals per home game. - Home Win odds of 1.88 provide value with >65% estimated probability. Summary: Based on the overwhelming head-to-head dominance and Dordrecht's poor away record, the recommended bet is Almere City FC to win.