Fri, 3 Apr 2026, 16:15
HNL
Croatia
Croatia
Full Time

Match Timeline

14'
Iker Pozo🟨
Yellow Card
27'
A. Latkovic⚽
Normal Goal → M. Mladenovski
33'
Novak Tepšić🟨
Yellow Card
45'
A. Erceg⚽
Normal Goal → J. Prsir
46'
D. Pavicic🔄
Substitution 1 → T. Epailly
46'
I. Pozo🔄
Substitution 2 → O. Bakic
56'
Aleksa Latković🟨
Yellow Card
63'
D. Puclin🔄
Substitution 1 → I. Canjuga
66'
Bruno Bogojević⚽
Goal cancelled
69'
A. Erceg🔄
Substitution 3 → W. Sule
71'
Wisdom Sule🟨
Yellow Card
71'
L. Mamic🔄
Substitution 2 → P. Bockaj
78'
Marijan Čabraja🟨
Yellow Card
82'
J. Prsir🔄
Substitution 4 → S. Kucis
83'
Ante Kavelj🟨
Yellow Card
86'
M. Vuk🔄
Substitution 3 → S. Ilinkovic
89'
B. Bogojevic🔄
Substitution 5 → E. Durakovic
90+1'
Tomislav Duvnjak🟨
Yellow Card
90+2'
Ognjen Bakić🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

5Shots on Goal2
4Shots off Goal1
16Total Shots5
7Blocked Shots2
9Shots insidebox3
7Shots outsidebox2
18Fouls12
8Corner Kicks1
0Offsides4
50Ball Possession50
3Yellow Cards5
1Goalkeeper Saves4
373Total passes383
285Passes accurate295
76Passes %77
0.74expected_goals0.52
0goals_prevented0

Starting Lineups

NK VarazdinNK Varazdin1:1

Starting XI

1O. ZelenikaG
16N. TepsicD
20G. SikosekM
22L. MamicF
10A. LatkovicF
14R. PuncecD
6D. PuclinM
7M. VukF
13M. MladenovskiD
8T. DuvnjakM
23F. MaglicaM

HNK GoricaHNK Gorica1:1

Starting XI

71D. MatijasG
19M. CabrajaD
25B. BogojevicM
24D. PavicicF
50A. ErcegF
4J. FilipovicD
8I. PozoM
10J. PrsirF
45S. PericD
36A. KaveljM
22Z. TronteljM

Head-to-Head

📈 Team Form & Statistics

NK Varazdin
NK Varazdin
Form: L-W-D-L-D
HNK Gorica
HNK Gorica
Form: W-D-D-W-L
Record
4 W
2 D
4 L
•
4 W
3 D
3 L
Goals Per Game
1.3
Scored
vs
1.5
Scored
1.6
Conceded
vs
1.2
Conceded
Betting Indicators
Clean Sheets
20%
Clean Sheets
50%
BTTS
70%
BTTS
40%
Home/Away Performance
Scored
Home:1.2
Away:1.4
Conceded
Home:1.8
Away:1.4
Scored
Home:1.6
Away:1.4
Conceded
Home:0.8
Away:1.6

ELO comparison

Pre-match ratings

Rating period
Match snapshot
NK Varazdin versus HNK Gorica: long term ELO, before the match
NK VarazdinHomeRatingHNK GoricaAway
Strength
1,592.4Overall1,541.9
1,584.6Match venue1,438.4
1,584.6At home1,556.7
1,519.2Away1,438.4
Attack & defence
1,482.7Attack1,473.2
1,594Defence1,562.9
1,477.2Home attack1,480.8
1,443.3Away attack1,425.7
1,583.5Home defence1,541.4
1,602.2Away defence1,542.8
Match profile
1,350Goal environment1,538.3
1,448.3Home goals1,523.3
1,401.7Away goals1,515
1,480.3Possession1,482.5
Specialist ratings
1,441.7Set-piece attack1,487
1,443.5Set-piece defence1,487.6
1,577.8Close games1,531
1,595.6Winning margin1,555.2

Match venue compares NK Varazdin at home with HNK Gorica away. All ratings are within this league.

Higher goal environment ratings mean higher-scoring games, not necessarily a stronger team. A starting league rating is 1500.

📝 Match Preview

NK Varazdin vs HNK Gorica Betting Preview
Recommendation:OVER_2_5
Odds:2.15
Expected Value:+24.7%
Confidence:7

Hey guys, Pajimon here. You know I don't serve vegetables, only meat. If there's no meat, I say no bet. But today, we found some steak. We're looking at NK Varazdin hosting HNK Gorica in the HNL, and the stats scream goals. Varazdin at home is leaking goals like a sieve. Their home defense concedes an average of 1.80 goals per game. That's a lot of holes in the backline. On the other side, Gorica away from home is scoring 1.40 goals per game. When you combine Varazdin's home scoring (1.20) and Gorica's away scoring (1.40), the total goal expectancy sits right at 3.00 goals. The head-to-head history is also juicy. In the last 10 meetings, both teams scored in 8 of them. That's an 80% BTTS rate. Plus, 5 out of 10 H2H matches saw Over 2.5 Goals. The recent Cup meeting ended 3-1 to Gorica, showing they can hurt Varazdin. The bookies have Over 2.5 Goals at 2.15. Based on the goal expectancies and the H2H trends, the real probability is closer to 58%. That gives us a solid edge of over 11%. This isn't a vegetable bet; this is proper meat. I'm confident the goal feast is coming. Let's get that BBQ money and enjoy the beer. Don't forget to check the odds before you place your slip.

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