Hello friends! Welcome to another exciting HNL clash where we search for value in the little puppies. Today, NK Varazdin hosts HNK Rijeka. While Rijeka enters as the favorite at 2.22, our eyes are fixed on the underdog, NK Varazdin, offering odds of 3.47. Looking at the standings, Varazdin sits 3rd with 44 points, just ahead of Rijeka on 42 points. This tight race suggests parity, but the home advantage and head-to-head history tilt the scales. In their last five home meetings, Varazdin has won three times, drawn once, and lost once. That 60% home win rate against Rijeka is a strong signal for the little guy. Recent form also favors the underdog. Varazdin has won their last two league games, defeating NK Osijek and NK Slaven Belupo. Conversely, Rijeka drew with Dinamo Zagreb and lost to NK Osijek in their most recent league outings. While Rijeka has a solid away record generally, Varazdin's momentum is palpable. Statistically, Varazdin averages 12.89 shots per game, while Rijeka averages 15.88. However, Varazdin's home defense has been improving, conceding 1.67 goals per game at home. Rijeka's away goal expectancy is 1.43, while Varazdin's home expectancy is 1.28. Fatigue is similar, with Varazdin having 5 days rest compared to Rijeka's 4 days. The odds of 3.47 imply a win probability of roughly 28.8%. Based on the head-to-head dominance at home and current form, we estimate the true probability closer to 35%. This creates a value edge of over 6%, meeting our strict value criteria. We believe the little puppies can pull off the upset. The goal expectancy suggests a competitive match with around 2.7 total goals, but our focus remains on the outcome. In conclusion, we are backing NK Varazdin to secure the three points at home. It's a classic underdog opportunity where the odds offer genuine value against the favorite. Let's root for the little guys!