Welcome back to the underdog den! 🐾 Today, we are turning our spotlight to the HNL clash between Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka. While the bookmakers have Rijeka firmly planted as the favourites at 1.73, I always look for the hidden gems in the mud, and this fixture is dripping with potential value for the home side. Istra 1961, the little puppies of the league, are sitting in 5th place with 42 points, just a few steps behind Rijeka in 3rd. But don't let the table position fool you—recent numbers tell a much more competitive story. Istra 1961 has shown a clear upward trajectory at home. Over their last six home fixtures, they have secured two convincing victories, including a 3-1 thrashing of NK Slaven Belupo and a 2-1 win over NK Varazdin. Their home goal-scoring average sits at 1.17 per game, and while they have conceded 1.67 goals on average at their own turf, their defensive metrics are tightening up. More importantly, their three-game moving average for points has jumped to 2.00, signalling a team finding its rhythm right at the right time. On the other side, HNK Rijeka arrives with a 1.73 price tag, but their away form tells a different tale. In their last six away matches, Rijeka has suffered five losses or draws, winning just twice. They concede 1.50 goals per game on the road and have struggled to maintain consistency away from the Kvarer stadium. Their last away league outing was a 3-0 victory at Lokomotiva Zagreb, but prior to that, they dropped points in a 2-2 draw and suffered a 1-0 defeat at the hands of NK Varazdin. The road is clearly a tricky place for the visitors. The head-to-head record heavily favours this underdog narrative. In their last ten meetings, Istra 1961 has won three times, drawn once, and lost six times. However, at home, Istra has kept it tight, and the most recent encounter on 15 March 2026 ended in an emphatic 2-0 victory for the home side. When you combine a 2-0 H2H win, a home side riding a wave of improved confidence, and an away side that loses or draws in 50% of their away games, the 4.20 odds on an Istra 1961 victory start to look incredibly juicy. The goal expectancy metrics paint a picture of a closely matched contest, with Home at 1.33 and Away at 1.42. Rijeka's away defensive vulnerabilities against an Istra side that is improving its goal-scoring trend make the home win a compelling value play. We are backing the pups to spring a surprise and take all three points. Key Points: - Istra 1961 has improved their recent form, with a 3-game moving average of 2.00 points. - HNK Rijeka has a poor away record, suffering 50% losses or draws in their last six away games. - Istra 1961 won the most recent H2H meeting 2-0 at home. - The home side is priced at 4.20, offering significant value against the bookmakers' favourite. - Goal expectancy is tight (Home 1.33, Away 1.42), suggesting a competitive, low-margin game where home advantage and momentum matter. Summary: After sniffing out the value in the mid-table clash, I am backing the home underdogs. My pick is Istra 1961 to Win at 4.20 odds.