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Match analysis

EnglandLeague Two

Crewe vs Bristol Rovers

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this League Two fixture.

Full time1:1HT 1–1

Match Timeline

9'
Emre Tezgel⚽
Normal Goal → Reece Hutchinson
12'
Callum Morton⚽
Normal Goal → Alfie Kilgour
30'
Adrien Thibaut🟥
Red Card
30'
Clinton Mola🟨
Yellow Card
33'
Emre Tezgel🔄
Substitution 1 → Dion Rankine
36'
Jack Sparkes🟨
Yellow Card
50'
James Connolly🟨
Yellow Card
57'
Fabrizio Cavegn🔄
Substitution 1 → Shaqai Forde
60'
Max Sanders🟨
Yellow Card
60'
Luke Southwood🟨
Yellow Card
73'
Alfie Chang🔄
Substitution 2 → Joel Cotterill
73'
Luke Thomas🔄
Substitution 3 → Ruel Sotiriou
77'
Callum Morton🔄
Substitution 4 → Ollie Dewsbury
81'
Josh March🔄
Substitution 2 → Louis Moult
81'
Owen Lunt🔄
Substitution 3 → Jack Powell

Match Statistics

3Shots on Goal3
4Shots off Goal4
10Total Shots15
3Blocked Shots8
8Shots insidebox7
2Shots outsidebox8
10Fouls20
3Corner Kicks3
0Offsides1
38Ball Possession62
2Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
2Goalkeeper Saves2
238Total passes413
143Passes accurate318
60Passes %77

Tipster previews (5)

PajimonLost

Crewe to Feast on Struggling Rovers

The pickCrewe win

Chance
65%
Odds
1.90
Model EV
+23.5%

Alright, let's braai some facts! We've got a classic League Two clash where the form guide isn't just a suggestion, it's a flashing neon sign. Crewe, sitting pretty in 8th with 31 points, welcome a Bristol Rovers side that's down in 23rd and looking about as confident as a lamb…

Value VinnyLost

Crewe to Capitalize on Rovers' Relegation Form

The pickCrewe win

Chance
70%
Odds
1.90
Model EV
+33.0%

When 8th-placed Crewe hosts 23rd-placed Bristol Rovers this Friday, we're looking at one of the most lopsided matchups in League Two on paper. The numbers don't lie, and my job is to find where the odds compilers have made a mistake. Let's crunch the data. Crewe sits comfortably…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Crewe

4W 4D 2L1.60 pts/game

Bristol Rovers

2W 1D 7L0.70 pts/game

Per game

Crewe at home vs Bristol Rovers away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within League Two

Overall edge
+50Crewe
Venue edge
+36Crewe
Rating period
Match snapshot
Crewe versus Bristol Rovers: long term Elo, before the match
CreweHomeRatingBristol RoversAway
Strength
1,478Overall1,429
1,497Match venue1,461
1,497At home1,541
1,495Away1,461
Attack & defence
1,476Attack1,408
1,511Defence1,478
1,489Home attack1,441
1,434Away attack1,462
1,492Home defence1,574
1,561Away defence1,467
Match profile
1,683Goal environment1,510
1,670Home goals1,480
1,513Away goals1,530
1,498Possession1,509
Specialist ratings
1,512Set-piece attack1,520
1,512Set-piece defence1,520
1,461Close games1,518
1,489Winning margin1,387

Match venue compares Crewe at home with Bristol Rovers away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

CreweCrewe1:1

Starting XI

13Sam WallerG
3Reece HutchinsonD
6Max SandersM
24Josh MarchM
29Adrien ThibautF
2Lewis BillingtonD
19Owen LuntM
36Emre TezgelM
18James ConnollyD
26Tommi O'ReillyM
20Calum AgiusD

Bristol RoversBristol Rovers1:1

Starting XI

1Luke SouthwoodG
3Jack SparkesD
24Alfie ChangM
11Luke ThomasF
6Clinton MolaD
22Kamil ContehM
29Fabrizio CavegnF
5Alfie KilgourD
20Josh McEachranM
39Callum MortonF
4Taylor MooreD