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Match analysis

EnglandLeague Two

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this League Two fixture.

Match Timeline

17'
Aaron Nemane⚽
Normal Goal → Alex Gilbey
21'
Finley Munroe🟨
Yellow Card
38'
Will Collar🟨
Yellow Card
53'
Darren Oldaker🟨
Yellow Card
59'
Finley Munroe🔄
Substitution 1 → Ollie Palmer
60'
Joel McGregor🔄
Substitution 2 → Joe Snowdon
63'
Aaron Nemane🔄
Substitution 1 → Jon Mellish
63'
Will Collar🔄
Substitution 2 → Kane Thompson-Sommers
70'
Aaron Collins🔄
Substitution 3 → Rushian Hepburn-Murphy
72'
Ryan Tafazolli🔄
Substitution 3 → James Ball
72'
Billy Bodin🔄
Substitution 4 → Princewill Ehibhatiomhan
88'
Darren Oldaker🔄
Substitution 5 → Jake Tabor
89'
Gethin Jones🔄
Substitution 4 → Connor Lemonheigh-Evans

Match Statistics

5Shots on Goal3
7Shots off Goal6
15Total Shots11
3Blocked Shots2
12Shots insidebox7
3Shots outsidebox4
10Fouls8
5Corner Kicks8
3Offsides0
41Ball Possession59
1Yellow Cards2
2Goalkeeper Saves4
292Total passes417
180Passes accurate315
62Passes %76

Tipster previews (6)

The Big "O"Lost

Boxing Day Fireworks: Top-Five Clash Set for Goals

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
62%
Odds
1.70
Model EV
+5.4%

The festive fixture list serves up a cracker as fifth-placed Milton Keynes Dons host second-placed Swindon Town in a League Two showdown that promises plenty of action. For a tipster who lives for goals, this one has all the ingredients for a classic. Let's dive into the data…

Umery UnderdogLost

Swindon Town: The Underdog with Top-Two Teeth

The pickSwindon Town win

Chance
35%
Odds
3.40
Model EV
+19.0%

The Boxing Day fixture at Stadium MK pits fifth-placed Milton Keynes Dons against second-placed Swindon Town in a League Two clash that, on paper, looks like a close contest. But the betting odds tell a different story, with the home side installed as favourites. To this…

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceLost

A Clash of Momentum and Memory, This Is

The pickSwindon Town win

Chance
39%
Odds
3.40
Model EV
+32.6%

On the Boxing Day stage, a battle of contrasting forces we have. Milton Keynes Dons, fifth in the table with 36 points, welcome second-placed Swindon Town, who sit on 40 points. Close in the standings, they are, but in current momentum, a gulf there may be. The Tale of Two Forms…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Milton Keynes Dons

5W 3D 2L1.80 pts/game

Swindon Town

7W 2D 1L2.30 pts/game

Per game

Milton Keynes Dons at home vs Swindon Town away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within League Two

Overall edge
+54Swindon Town
Venue edge
+10Milton Keynes Dons
Rating period
Match snapshot
Milton Keynes Dons versus Swindon Town: long term Elo, before the match
Milton Keynes DonsHomeRatingSwindon TownAway
Strength
1,510Overall1,564
1,517Match venue1,507
1,517At home1,543
1,493Away1,507
Attack & defence
1,524Attack1,526
1,513Defence1,540
1,496Home attack1,515
1,520Away attack1,522
1,547Home defence1,517
1,485Away defence1,514
Match profile
1,672Goal environment1,817
1,527Home goals1,623
1,645Away goals1,693
1,502Possession1,512
Specialist ratings
1,501Set-piece attack1,487
1,501Set-piece defence1,488
1,477Close games1,530
1,526Winning margin1,570

Match venue compares Milton Keynes Dons at home with Swindon Town away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

Milton Keynes DonsMilton Keynes DonsUnknown

Starting XI

1Craig MacGillivrayG
32Jack SandersD
21Marvin EkpitetaD
15Luke OffordD
2Gethin JonesM
18Will CollarM
8Alex GilbeyM
6Liam KellyM
16Aaron NemaneM
10Aaron CollinsF
13Callum PatersonF

Swindon TownSwindon TownUnknown

Starting XI

1Connor RipleyG
5Will WrightD
22Jamie Knight-LebelD
17Ryan TafazolliD
26Finley MunroeD
7Tom NicholsM
18Gavin KilkennyM
33Joel McGregorM
44Darren OldakerM
9Paul GlatzelM
31Billy BodinF