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Match analysis

EnglandLeague Two

Milton Keynes Dons vs Crawley Town

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this League Two fixture.

Match Timeline

1'
Geraldo Bajrami🟨
Yellow Card
23'
Jay Williams🟨
Yellow Card
32'
Luke Offord🟨
Yellow Card
37'
Jay Matete🔄
Substitution 1 → Daniel Crowley
66'
Lewis Richards🔄
Substitution 1 → Dion Pereira
73'
Rushian Hepburn-Murphy🔄
Substitution 2 → Scott Hogan
80'
Klaidi Lolos🔄
Substitution 2 → Ade Adeyemo
80'
Josh Flint🔄
Substitution 3 → Johnny Russell
83'
Liam Kelly🔄
Substitution 3 → Connor Lemonheigh-Evans
83'
Jon Mellish🔄
Substitution 4 → Joseph Tomlinson
87'
Kellan Gordon🔄
Substitution 4 → Harry Forster
90+2'
Jacob Chapman🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

4Shots on Goal4
4Shots off Goal5
13Total Shots11
5Blocked Shots2
12Shots insidebox5
1Shots outsidebox6
11Fouls10
9Corner Kicks2
4Offsides2
51Ball Possession49
1Yellow Cards3
4Goalkeeper Saves4
349Total passes340
235Passes accurate237
67Passes %70

Tipster previews (3)

PajimonLost

MK Dons to Cook Crawley in Promotion Push

The pickMilton Keynes Dons win

Chance
68%
Odds
1.57
Model EV
+6.8%

Lekker! It's Tuesday night football in League Two and I've got my eyes on Stadium MK where Milton Keynes Dons are hosting Crawley Town. Nothing beats midweek footy with a cold one in hand, especially when there's a braai waiting after a winning bet! Now, let's talk turkey. MK…

Value VinnyLost

MK Dons vs Crawley: Short Odds, Real Value

The pickMilton Keynes Dons win

Chance
68%
Odds
1.57
Model EV
+6.8%

League Two's stark contrast in fortunes takes center stage as playoff-chasing Milton Keynes Dons host relegation-threatened Crawley Town. While the table screams mismatch, my algorithms hunt for the gap between perception and probability—and I've found it. MK Dons arrive in…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Milton Keynes Dons

5W 4D 1L1.90 pts/game

Crawley Town

2W 1D 7L0.70 pts/game

Per game

Milton Keynes Dons at home vs Crawley Town away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within League Two

Overall edge
+173Milton Keynes Dons
Venue edge
+140Milton Keynes Dons
Rating period
Match snapshot
Milton Keynes Dons versus Crawley Town: long term Elo, before the match
Milton Keynes DonsHomeRatingCrawley TownAway
Strength
1,567Overall1,393
1,553Match venue1,413
1,553At home1,464
1,507Away1,413
Attack & defence
1,532Attack1,423
1,539Defence1,468
1,495Home attack1,471
1,536Away attack1,431
1,573Home defence1,508
1,486Away defence1,452
Match profile
1,678Goal environment1,745
1,527Home goals1,582
1,652Away goals1,663
1,494Possession1,536
Specialist ratings
1,492Set-piece attack1,476
1,492Set-piece defence1,477
1,524Close games1,419
1,583Winning margin1,377

Match venue compares Milton Keynes Dons at home with Crawley Town away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

Milton Keynes DonsMilton Keynes Dons1:1

Starting XI

1Craig MacGillivrayG
15Luke OffordD
22Jon MellishM
26Ben WilesF
29Rushian Hepburn-MurphyF
25Curtis NelsonD
8Alex GilbeyM
21Marvin EkpitetaD
6Liam KellyM
28Jay MateteM
2Gethin JonesM

Crawley TownCrawley Town1:1

Starting XI

35Jacob ChapmanG
28Josh FlintD
12Lewis RichardsM
49Ronan DarcyF
99Danilo Orsi-DadomoF
4Geraldo BajramiD
20Justin FerizajM
44Klaidi LolosF
5Charlie BarkerD
26Jay WilliamsM
41Kellan GordonM