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Match analysis

EnglandChampionship

West Brom vs Birmingham

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Championship fixture.

Full time1:1HT 1–0

Match Timeline

11'
Toby Collyer🔄
Substitution 1 → Ousmane Diakité
12'
Alex Mowatt⚽
Normal Goal
28'
Christoph Klarer🟨
Yellow Card
33'
Tomoki Iwata🟨
Yellow Card
77'
Michael Johnston🟨
Yellow Card
78'
Marvin Ducksch⚽
Normal Goal → Tommy Doyle
79'
Ousmane Diakité🔄
Substitution 2 → Krystian Bielik
79'
Karlan Grant🔄
Substitution 3 → Samuel Iling Junior
83'
Demarai Gray🔄
Substitution 1 → Keshi Anderson
83'
Marvin Ducksch🔄
Substitution 2 → Kyogo Furuhashi
84'
Aune Selland Heggebø🔄
Substitution 4 → Josh Maja
90'
Jay Stansfield🔄
Substitution 3 → Marc Leonard

Match Statistics

4Shots on Goal4
7Shots off Goal4
13Total Shots14
2Blocked Shots6
6Shots insidebox11
7Shots outsidebox3
7Fouls12
3Corner Kicks3
0Offsides1
42Ball Possession58
1Yellow Cards2
3Goalkeeper Saves3
372Total passes502
276Passes accurate404
74Passes %80
0.77expected_goals0.99
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (5)

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceWon

Wisdom of the Under: A Battle of Contrasts

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
65%
Odds
1.62
Model EV
+5.3%

In the grand tapestry of the Championship, two teams travel different paths to meet. West Brom, sitting 17th with 21 points, seek to find their way. Birmingham, 9th with 24 points, aim higher still. But as the wise one knows, position alone tells not the whole story. Recent form…

Umery UnderdogLost

Birmingham Ready to Bark at The Hawthorns

The pickBirmingham win

Chance
42%
Odds
2.70
Model EV
+13.4%

Oh, what a delightful Championship clash we have here! While most eyes might be on the home side, I've spotted something special in our visiting puppies from Birmingham. Let me tell you why these underdogs have my tail wagging! Looking at recent form, Birmingham have been the…

PajimonWon

Birmingham's Away Woes vs West Brom's Home Solidity

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
65%
Odds
1.62
Model EV
+5.3%

Alright boet, let's break down this Midlands derby! West Brom might be sitting 17th in the table, but don't let that fool you - they've been solid at home lately, unbeaten in their last 4 at the Hawthorns with 2 wins and 2 draws. They're keeping it tight at home too, conceding…

Mr SimpleWon

Midlands Derby: Low-Scoring Affair on the Cards?

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
65%
Odds
1.62
Model EV
+5.3%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Midlands derby between West Brom and Birmingham. On paper, you might think Birmingham have the edge sitting pretty in 9th compared to West Brom down in 17th, but football's not played on paper, is it? West Brom have been a bit up and…

Value VinnyLost

Value Found in West Brom's Home Advantage

The pickWest Brom win

Chance
42%
Odds
2.62
Model EV
+10.0%

The numbers don't lie here, and they're pointing toward value on the home side. While Birmingham sits 8 places higher in the table, the market seems to be missing a crucial factor: the massive home/away split in Birmingham's performance. Let's break this down mathematically…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

West Brom

3W 2D 5L1.10 pts/game

Birmingham

4W 2D 4L1.40 pts/game

Per game

West Brom at home vs Birmingham away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Championship

Overall edge
Level
Venue edge
+212West Brom
Rating period
Match snapshot
West Brom versus Birmingham: long term Elo, before the match
West BromHomeRatingBirminghamAway
Strength
1,480Overall1,480
1,594Match venue1,382
1,594At home1,521
1,436Away1,382
Attack & defence
1,434Attack1,457
1,542Defence1,542
1,459Home attack1,500
1,437Away attack1,372
1,617Home defence1,573
1,515Away defence1,471
Match profile
1,493Goal environment1,543
1,512Home goals1,518
1,482Away goals1,525
1,505Possession1,515
Specialist ratings
1,505Set-piece attack1,523
1,505Set-piece defence1,523
1,474Close games1,467
1,477Winning margin1,502

Match venue compares West Brom at home with Birmingham away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

West BromWest Brom1:1

Starting XI

20Joshua GriffithsG
4Callum StylesD
27Alex MowattM
10Karlan GrantM
19Aune Selland HeggebøF
2Chris MephamD
13Toby CollyerM
21Isaac PriceM
3Nathaniel PhillipsD
11Michael JohnstonM
6George CampbellD

BirminghamBirmingham1:1

Starting XI

25James BeadleG
20Alex CochraneD
8Seung-Ho PaikM
10Demarai GrayM
33Marvin DuckschF
4Christoph KlarerD
7Tommy DoyleM
28Jay StansfieldM
5Phil NeumannD
16Patrick RobertsM
24Tomoki IwataD