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Match analysis

EnglandChampionship

Birmingham vs Watford

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Championship fixture.

Full time2:1HT 2–0

Match Timeline

20'
Hector Kyprianou🟨
Yellow Card
24'
Tommy Doyle🟨
Yellow Card
31'
Seung-Ho Paik⚽
Normal Goal
43'
Demarai Gray⚽
Normal Goal → Jay Stansfield
59'
Thomas Ince🔄
Substitution 1 → Giorgi Chakvetadze
60'
Hector Kyprianou🔄
Substitution 2 → Edo Kayembe
60'
Luca Kjerrumgaard🔄
Substitution 3 → Vivaldo
61'
Othmane Maamma⚽
Normal Goal → Marc Bola
69'
Demarai Gray🔄
Substitution 1 → Keshi Anderson
73'
Bright Osayi-Samuel🔄
Substitution 2 → Alfons Sampsted
73'
Marvin Ducksch🔄
Substitution 3 → Lyndon Dykes
76'
Imrân Louza🟨
Yellow Card
78'
Jay Stansfield🟨
Yellow Card
80'
Patrick Roberts🟨
Yellow Card
85'
Othmane Maamma🔄
Substitution 4 → Moussa Sissoko
90'
Patrick Roberts🔄
Substitution 4 → Lewis Koumas
90'
Jay Stansfield🔄
Substitution 5 → Marc Leonard

Match Statistics

5Shots on Goal4
5Shots off Goal5
13Total Shots12
3Blocked Shots3
8Shots insidebox8
5Shots outsidebox4
11Fouls10
6Corner Kicks6
49Ball Possession51
3Yellow Cards2
3Goalkeeper Saves3
418Total passes422
321Passes accurate334
77Passes %79
1.26expected_goals1.03
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (6)

PajimonWon

Blues vs Hornets: Goal Fest Expected?

The pickBTTS Yes

Chance
65%
Odds
1.91
Model EV
+24.1%

Alright boet, let's get down to business! Birmingham and Watford are basically neck and neck in the table, just one point separating these two sides. But when you dig deeper, there's a proper story unfolding here. Birmingham have been absolute machines at home lately, scoring…

The Big "O"Won

Goal Fest Expected as Birmingham Host Watford

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
55%
Odds
2.10
Model EV
+15.5%

The Big O is getting excited about this Championship clash, and for good reason! Birmingham have been absolutely explosive at home this season, averaging a whopping 3.20 goals per game on their own patch. Just look at their recent home performances - they've been putting four…

Umery UnderdogLost

Watford Ready to Bark Against Birmingham

The pickWatford win

Chance
25%
Odds
4.33
Model EV
+8.3%

Oh, what a delightful matchup we have here! While everyone might be looking at Birmingham as the home favorites, my underdog senses are tingling with excitement for Watford! Let me tell you why these little puppies have some serious bite. First off, forget the league table for a…

Mr SimpleWon

Blues vs Hornets: Goal Fest on the Cards?

The pickBTTS Yes

Chance
60%
Odds
1.91
Model EV
+14.6%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Monday night special down St. Andrew's. Birmingham are sitting pretty in 9th, just one point ahead of Watford in 14th, so there's plenty to play for in this Midlands vs Herts clash. Now, Birmingham at home have been absolutely…

Value VinnyWon

Birmingham vs Watford: Goal-Fest Value on the Cards

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
68%
Odds
2.10
Model EV
+42.8%

Let's cut through the noise and focus on what the numbers tell us. Birmingham sit 9th with 25 points, while Watford occupy 14th with 24 points - essentially deadlocked in the table. But the real story lies in the underlying metrics. Birmingham have been a goal-scoring machine at…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Birmingham

4W 3D 3L1.50 pts/game

Watford

4W 4D 2L1.60 pts/game

Per game

Birmingham at home vs Watford away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Championship

Overall edge
+14Watford
Venue edge
+101Birmingham
Rating period
Match snapshot
Birmingham versus Watford: long term Elo, before the match
BirminghamHomeRatingWatfordAway
Strength
1,480Overall1,495
1,521Match venue1,420
1,521At home1,561
1,389Away1,420
Attack & defence
1,456Attack1,472
1,542Defence1,527
1,500Home attack1,481
1,376Away attack1,442
1,573Home defence1,583
1,475Away defence1,480
Match profile
1,542Goal environment1,670
1,518Home goals1,582
1,523Away goals1,588
1,516Possession1,505
Specialist ratings
1,523Set-piece attack1,486
1,522Set-piece defence1,487
1,467Close games1,481
1,501Winning margin1,504

Match venue compares Birmingham at home with Watford away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

BirminghamBirmingham1:1

Starting XI

25James BeadleG
20Alex CochraneD
8Seung-Ho PaikM
10Demarai GrayM
33Marvin DuckschF
4Christoph KlarerD
7Tommy DoyleM
28Jay StansfieldM
5Phil NeumannD
16Patrick RobertsM
26Bright Osayi-SamuelD

WatfordWatford1:1

Starting XI

12Nathan BaxterG
16Marc BolaD
42Othmane MaammaM
9Luca KjerrumgaardF
6Matthew PollockD
5Hector KyprianouM
20Mamadou DoumbiaF
4Kévin Keben BiakoloD
10Imrân LouzaM
2Jeremy NgakiaD
7Thomas InceM