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Match analysis

EnglandChampionship

Millwall vs Southampton

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Championship fixture.

Full time3:2HT 0–0

Match Timeline

36'
Tom Fellows🟨
Yellow Card
47'
Adam Armstrong🟨
Yellow Card
55'
Adam Armstrong
Penalty
62'
Jay RobinsonπŸ”„
Substitution 1 β†’ Joe Aribo
72'
Femi Azeez⚽
Normal Goal β†’ Tristan Crama
73'
Raees Bangura-WilliamsπŸ”„
Substitution 1 β†’ Camiel Neghli
74'
Danny McNamaraπŸ”„
Substitution 2 β†’ Alfie Doughty
76'
Tom FellowsπŸ”„
Substitution 2 β†’ Ryan Fraser
76'
Cameron BraggπŸ”„
Substitution 3 β†’ Oriol Romeu
78'
Femi AzeezπŸ”„
Substitution 3 β†’ Thierno Ballo
81'
Caleb Taylor⚽
Normal Goal β†’ Casper De Norre
87'
Finn Azaz⚽
Normal Goal
88'
Aidomo EmakhuπŸ”„
Substitution 4 β†’ Zak Lovelace
88'
Daniel KellyπŸ”„
Substitution 5 β†’ Macaulay Langstaff
90+7'
Tristan Crama⚽
Normal Goal β†’ Thierno Ballo
90+8'
Tristan Crama🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

7Shots on Goal8
10Shots off Goal2
21Total Shots11
4Blocked Shots1
13Shots insidebox9
8Shots outsidebox2
11Fouls6
9Corner Kicks6
2Offsides3
41Ball Possession59
1Yellow Cards2
7Goalkeeper Saves3
301Total passes466
227Passes accurate386
75Passes %83
1.72expected_goals1.21
-1goals_prevented-1

Tipster previews (4)

PajimonLost

Saints Set To Continue Away Form At The Den

The pickSouthampton win

Chance
55%
Odds
2.20
Model EV
+21.0%

Alright boet, let's get down to business! This Championship clash at The Den looks like a proper cracker, but the numbers are telling me one story loud and clear. Millwall come into this sitting 9th with 25 points from 16 games, but their recent form has been a bit up and down…

The Big "O"Won

Goal Fest Incoming as Saints Visit The Den

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
57%
Odds
1.91
Model EV
+8.9%

Alright, goal lovers! The Big O is getting excited about this Championship clash, and I've got my eyes firmly set on the scoreboard. When Southampton come to town, you can bet your bottom dollar we're in for some serious goal action! Let's talk numbers, because that's how The…

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceLost

Saints' Momentum Meets Lions' Home Fortress

The pickSouthampton win

Chance
55%
Odds
2.20
Model EV
+21.0%

In the grand tapestry of the Championship, two forces converge on November 29th. Millwall, the Lions, sit ninth with 25 points - respectable, yet their recent form wavers like a candle in the wind. Southampton, the Saints, follow closely behind with 24 points, but their momentum…

Value VinnyLost

Southampton Value on the Road at Millwall

The pickSouthampton win

Chance
52%
Odds
2.20
Model EV
+14.4%

Let's cut through the noise and look at the cold, hard numbers. The market has Southampton as slight favorites at 2.20, but my calculations suggest this is where the real value lies. Millwall's recent form tells a story of inconsistency - heavy defeats (4-0 vs Birmingham, 4-0 vs…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Millwall

5W 2D 3L1.70 pts/game

Southampton

5W 2D 3L1.70 pts/game

Per game

Millwall at home vs Southampton away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match Β· within Championship

Overall edge
+23Southampton
Venue edge
+7Southampton
Rating period
Match snapshot
Millwall versus Southampton: long term Elo, before the match
MillwallHomeRatingSouthamptonAway
Strength
1,550Overall1,573
1,559Match venue1,566
1,559At home1,581
1,499Away1,566
Attack & defence
1,436Attack1,549
1,550Defence1,534
1,423Home attack1,561
1,432Away attack1,529
1,605Home defence1,567
1,527Away defence1,513
Match profile
1,178Goal environment1,623
1,363Home goals1,577
1,315Away goals1,547
1,492Possession1,520
Specialist ratings
1,511Set-piece attack1,532
1,510Set-piece defence1,531
1,623Close games1,546
1,523Winning margin1,588

Match venue compares Millwall at home with Southampton away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

MillwallMillwallUnknown

Starting XI

15Max CrocombeG
4Tristan CramaD
6Caleb TaylorD
5Jake CooperD
2Danny McNamaraD
24Casper De NorreM
16Daniel KellyM
11Femi AzeezM
31Raees Bangura-WilliamsM
22Aidomo EmakhuM
9Mihailo IvanovićF

SouthamptonSouthamptonUnknown

Starting XI

31Gavin BazunuG
6Taylor Harwood-BellisD
15Nathan WoodD
5Jack StephensD
18Tom FellowsM
48Cameron BraggM
20Caspar JanderM
3Ryan ManningM
10Finn AzazF
46Jay RobinsonF
9Adam ArmstrongF