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Match analysis

EnglandChampionship

Southampton vs Birmingham

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Championship fixture.

Full time3:1HT 2–0

Match Timeline

6'
Finn Azaz⚽
Normal Goal → Leo Scienza
24'
Adam Armstrong⚽
Normal Goal → Finn Azaz
49'
Tomoki Iwata🟨
Yellow Card
54'
Demarai Gray⚽
Normal Goal → Alex Cochrane
58'
Adam Armstrong⚽
Normal Goal
59'
Marvin Ducksch🔄
Substitution 1 → Kyogo Furuhashi
59'
Alex Cochrane🔄
Substitution 2 → Jack Robinson
63'
Leo Scienza🔄
Substitution 1 → Jay Robinson
64'
Adam Armstrong🔄
Substitution 2 → Cameron Archer
80'
Caspar Jander🔄
Substitution 3 → Oriol Romeu
80'
Finn Azaz🔄
Substitution 4 → Joe Aribo
80'
Patrick Roberts🔄
Substitution 3 → Keshi Anderson
86'
Demarai Gray🔄
Substitution 4 → Lewis Koumas
86'
Jay Stansfield🔄
Substitution 5 → Lyndon Dykes
87'
Tom Fellows🔄
Substitution 5 → Ronnie Edwards
90+2'
Joe Aribo🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

8Shots on Goal4
9Shots off Goal10
19Total Shots22
2Blocked Shots8
10Shots insidebox14
9Shots outsidebox8
9Fouls11
7Corner Kicks8
0Offsides2
40Ball Possession60
1Yellow Cards1
3Goalkeeper Saves5
290Total passes408
234Passes accurate352
81Passes %86
1.65expected_goals2.01
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (4)

The Big "O"Won

Goal Fest Expected When Saints Host Blues

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
57%
Odds
1.91
Model EV
+8.9%

Alright, goal lovers! The Big O is here, and I'm seeing fireworks at St. Mary's this weekend. Southampton and Birmingham are serving up a recipe for goal glory, and I'm all in! Let's talk numbers, because that's how The Big O delivers the big O's! Southampton have been treating…

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceLost

Wisdom of the Low-Scoring Path

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
55%
Odds
1.91
Model EV
+5.1%

In the grand tapestry of football, balance reveals itself through patterns. Southampton, though sitting 14th in the league table, has shown flashes of brilliance - a 5-1 triumph over Charlton and a 3-0 victory against Leicester speak of potential unlocked. Yet inconsistency…

Mr SimpleWon

Saints Home Advantage vs Blues' Away Struggles

The pickBTTS Yes

Chance
65%
Odds
1.73
Model EV
+12.4%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Championship clash between Southampton and Birmingham. On paper, you'd fancy Birmingham sitting pretty in 8th with 28 points, but dig a bit deeper and this one's not so straightforward. The Saints have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Southampton

4W 2D 4L1.40 pts/game

Birmingham

5W 2D 3L1.70 pts/game

Per game

Southampton at home vs Birmingham away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Championship

Overall edge
+59Southampton
Venue edge
+192Southampton
Rating period
Match snapshot
Southampton versus Birmingham: long term Elo, before the match
SouthamptonHomeRatingBirminghamAway
Strength
1,556Overall1,497
1,581Match venue1,389
1,581At home1,530
1,554Away1,389
Attack & defence
1,554Attack1,464
1,515Defence1,544
1,561Home attack1,504
1,537Away attack1,376
1,567Home defence1,573
1,495Away defence1,475
Match profile
1,632Goal environment1,543
1,577Home goals1,520
1,555Away goals1,523
1,521Possession1,516
Specialist ratings
1,528Set-piece attack1,521
1,527Set-piece defence1,521
1,534Close games1,483
1,569Winning margin1,517

Match venue compares Southampton at home with Birmingham away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

SouthamptonSouthamptonUnknown

Starting XI

31Gavin BazunuG
6Taylor Harwood-BellisD
15Nathan WoodD
5Jack StephensD
18Tom FellowsM
4Flynn DownesM
20Caspar JanderM
3Ryan ManningM
10Finn AzazF
13Leo ScienzaF
9Adam ArmstrongF

BirminghamBirminghamUnknown

Starting XI

25James BeadleG
24Tomoki IwataD
5Phil NeumannD
4Christoph KlarerD
20Alex CochraneD
7Tommy DoyleM
8Seung-Ho PaikM
16Patrick RobertsM
28Jay StansfieldM
10Demarai GrayM
33Marvin DuckschF