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Match analysis

EnglandChampionship

Millwall vs Swansea

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Championship fixture.

Full time2:1HT 1–0

Match Timeline

38'
Mihailo Ivanović⚽
Normal Goal → Caleb Taylor
47'
Ben Cabango⚽
Normal Goal → Gonçalo Franco
59'
Ishé Samuels-Smith🔄
Substitution 1 → Josh Tymon
59'
Malick Yalcouyé🔄
Substitution 2 → Melker Widell
66'
Camiel Neghli🟨
Yellow Card
72'
Zak Sturge🟨
Yellow Card
73'
Ronald🔄
Substitution 3 → Zeidane Inoussa
73'
Ji-sung Eom🔄
Substitution 4 → Marko Stamenić
77'
Camiel Neghli🔄
Substitution 1 → Derek Mazou-Sacko
77'
Thierno Ballo🔄
Substitution 2 → Aidomo Emakhu
77'
Zak Sturge🔄
Substitution 3 → Joe Bryan
85'
Femi Azeez🔄
Substitution 4 → Alfie Doughty
88'
Žan Vipotnik🔄
Substitution 5 → Bobby Wales
90'
Macaulay Langstaff🔄
Substitution 5 → Ryan Leonard
90+2'
Caleb Taylor⚽
Normal Goal → Alfie Doughty

Match Statistics

9Shots on Goal7
4Shots off Goal3
17Total Shots13
4Blocked Shots3
14Shots insidebox8
3Shots outsidebox5
12Fouls8
12Corner Kicks3
2Offsides3
47Ball Possession53
2Yellow Cards0
6Goalkeeper Saves8
348Total passes412
220Passes accurate300
63Passes %73
1.97expected_goals1.07
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (5)

PajimonWon

Millwall to Roar Past Struggling Swans at The Den

The pickMillwall win

Chance
55%
Odds
2.25
Model EV
+23.8%

Gather 'round the braai, folks! We've got a proper Championship clash here between Millwall, sitting pretty in 7th with 40 points, and Swansea, down in 16th with 32. On paper, there's an 8-point gap, but football isn't played on paper, is it? Let's dig into the numbers and see…

Mr SimpleWon

Millwall to Roar Past Struggling Swans?

The pickMillwall win

Chance
55%
Odds
2.25
Model EV
+23.8%

Right then, let's have a look at this Championship clash at The Den. Millwall are sitting pretty in 7th, on 40 points, while Swansea are down in 16th with 32. On paper, you'd fancy the Lions at home, and the numbers back that up. Millwall have been a proper tough nut to crack at…

Value VinnyWon

Millwall to Capitalise on Swansea's Travel Sickness

The pickMillwall win

Chance
48%
Odds
2.25
Model EV
+8.0%

The Championship serves up a classic mid-table clash where the numbers tell a compelling story. Millwall, sitting pretty in 7th, host a Swansea side languishing in 16th. On paper, it's close—both have 1.50 points per game over their last ten. But dig deeper, and a clear pattern…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Millwall

4W 3D 3L1.50 pts/game

Swansea

5W 0D 5L1.50 pts/game

Per game

Millwall at home vs Swansea away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Championship

Overall edge
+61Millwall
Venue edge
+109Millwall
Rating period
Match snapshot
Millwall versus Swansea: long term Elo, before the match
MillwallHomeRatingSwanseaAway
Strength
1,556Overall1,494
1,565Match venue1,456
1,565At home1,524
1,502Away1,456
Attack & defence
1,426Attack1,442
1,564Defence1,541
1,437Home attack1,479
1,412Away attack1,426
1,588Home defence1,550
1,548Away defence1,520
Match profile
1,168Goal environment1,520
1,370Home goals1,477
1,298Away goals1,543
1,483Possession1,518
Specialist ratings
1,498Set-piece attack1,503
1,498Set-piece defence1,503
1,640Close games1,496
1,530Winning margin1,489

Match venue compares Millwall at home with Swansea away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

MillwallMillwallUnknown

Starting XI

15Max CrocombeG
4Tristan CramaD
6Caleb TaylorD
5Jake CooperD
3Zak SturgeD
8Billy MitchellM
10Camiel NeghliM
11Femi AzeezM
17Macaulay LangstaffM
7Thierno BalloM
9Mihailo IvanovićF

SwanseaSwanseaUnknown

Starting XI

22Lawrence VigourouxG
30Ethan GalbraithD
5Ben CabangoD
15Cameron BurgessD
16Ishé Samuels-SmithD
4Jay FultonM
35RonaldM
17Gonçalo FrancoM
8Malick YalcouyéM
10Ji-sung EomM
9Žan VipotnikF