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Match analysis

EnglandChampionship

Southampton vs Watford

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Championship fixture.

Full time1:0HT 0–0

Match Timeline

38'
F. DownesπŸ”„
Substitution 1 β†’ S. Charles
53'
T. Harwood-Bellis🟨
Yellow Card
63'
M. DoumbiaπŸ”„
Substitution 1 β†’ L. Kjerrumgaard
66'
G. Chakvetadze🟨
Yellow Card
67'
R. StewartπŸ”„
Substitution 2 β†’ C. Larin
67'
L. ScienzaπŸ”„
Substitution 3 β†’ S. Edozie
70'
C. Larin⚽
Normal Goal β†’ J. Bree
70'
S. MfuniπŸ”„
Substitution 2 β†’ S. Goglichidze
75'
J. Bree🟨
Yellow Card
85'
N. MendyπŸ”„
Substitution 4 β†’ F. Mendy
85'
J. NgakiaπŸ”„
Substitution 3 β†’ J. Petris
86'
O. MaammaπŸ”„
Substitution 5 β†’ K. Baah
90'
T. FellowsπŸ”„
Substitution 4 β†’ N. Wood
90+3'
S. Charles🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

4Shots on Goal2
1Shots off Goal4
6Total Shots11
1Blocked Shots5
5Shots insidebox6
1Shots outsidebox5
9Fouls10
3Corner Kicks9
47Ball Possession53
2Yellow Cards1
2Goalkeeper Saves3
405Total passes448
331Passes accurate369
82Passes %82
0.8expected_goals0.68
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (5)

Mr SimpleWon

Saints and Hornets Set for a Stingy Stalemate?

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
68%
Odds
2.03
Model EV
+38.0%

Alright, folks, pull up a stool. We've got a proper Championship mid-table tussle on our hands as Southampton welcome Watford to the south coast. The Saints are sitting 14th, four points behind the Hornets in 8th, but the form book tells a different story to the league table…

Value VinnyWon

Value Vinnie's Verdict: The Underdog of Totals

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
60%
Odds
2.03
Model EV
+21.8%

The Championship serves up a mid-table clash between Southampton and Watford, and while the league table suggests a tight affair, the numbers whisper a different story. My job isn't to predict winners for fun; it's to find where the bookmakers have mispriced reality. Let's cut…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Southampton

3W 4D 3L1.30 pts/game

Watford

4W 3D 3L1.50 pts/game

Per game

Southampton at home vs Watford away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match Β· within Championship

Overall edge
+23Southampton
Venue edge
+134Southampton
Rating period
Match snapshot
Southampton versus Watford: long term Elo, before the match
SouthamptonHomeRatingWatfordAway
Strength
1,533Overall1,510
1,585Match venue1,451
1,585At home1,542
1,526Away1,451
Attack & defence
1,517Attack1,457
1,524Defence1,543
1,547Home attack1,466
1,515Away attack1,443
1,573Home defence1,564
1,492Away defence1,512
Match profile
1,635Goal environment1,662
1,577Home goals1,580
1,558Away goals1,582
1,530Possession1,509
Specialist ratings
1,525Set-piece attack1,483
1,524Set-piece defence1,483
1,510Close games1,517
1,540Winning margin1,511

Match venue compares Southampton at home with Watford away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

SouthamptonSouthampton1:1

Starting XI

41Daniel PeretzG
34WelingtonD
4Flynn DownesM
13Leo ScienzaM
11Ross StewartF
5Jack StephensD
20Caspar JanderM
10Finn AzazM
6Taylor Harwood-BellisD
18Tom FellowsM
14James BreeD

WatfordWatford1:1

Starting XI

1Egil SelvikG
16Marc BolaD
10ImrΓ’n LouzaM
8Giorgi ChakvetadzeM
20Mamadou DoumbiaF
21Stephen MfuniD
23Nampalys MendyM
39Edo KayembeM
25James AbankwahD
42Othmane MaammaM
2Jeremy NgakiaD