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Match analysis

EnglandChampionship

Swansea vs Stoke City

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Championship fixture.

Full time2:0HT 0–0

Match Timeline

23'
Sorba Thomas🟨
Yellow Card
30'
Lamine Cissé🟨
Yellow Card
34'
Ronald🟨
Yellow Card
36'
Sorba Thomas🟨
Yellow Card
36'
Sorba Thomas🟥
Red Card
53'
Žan Vipotnik⚽
Normal Goal → Josh Tymon
54'
Jesurun Rak-Sakyi🔄
Substitution 1 → Million Manhoef
54'
Lamine Cissé🔄
Substitution 2 → Milan Smit
66'
Ronald🔄
Substitution 1 → Gustavo Nunes
67'
Gonçalo Franco🟨
Yellow Card
70'
Eric Bocat🔄
Substitution 3 → Junior Tchamadeu
75'
Ben Wilmot🔄
Substitution 4 → Maksym Talovierov
79'
Maksym Talovierov🟨
Yellow Card
80'
Ji-sung Eom🔄
Substitution 2 → Liam Cullen
81'
Ethan Galbraith🔄
Substitution 3 → Melker Widell
81'
Marko Stamenić🔄
Substitution 4 → Jay Fulton
85'
Junior Tchamadeu🟨
Yellow Card
90'
Gonçalo Franco🔄
Substitution 5 → Joel Ward
90+2'
Liam Cullen⚽
Normal Goal
90+7'
Million Manhoef🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

4Shots on Goal2
11Shots off Goal1
23Total Shots7
8Blocked Shots4
12Shots insidebox5
11Shots outsidebox2
7Fouls12
12Corner Kicks5
0Offsides4
67Ball Possession33
2Yellow Cards6
0Red Cards1
1Goalkeeper Saves2
524Total passes261
458Passes accurate189
87Passes %72
1.15expected_goals0.82
-1goals_prevented-1

Tipster previews (4)

PajimonWon

Swansea vs Stoke: Home Comforts for the Swans?

The pickSwansea win

Chance
55%
Odds
2.00
Model EV
+10.0%

Howzit my bru! Pajimon here, fresh from the braai and ready to talk ball. Got my beer in hand and let me tell you, this Championship clash between Swansea and Stoke City has got me thinking about value - and not the kind you get at the butcher for your boerewors! Looking at the…

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceWon

Home Fortress Strong, Stoke's Travels Weak

The pickSwansea win

Chance
55%
Odds
2.00
Model EV
+10.0%

The Championship, a marathon it is, not a sprint. Yet on this Saturday afternoon, at the Swansea.com Stadium, a battle of contrasting paths we shall witness. Home form, a fortress it has become for the Swans. Away form, a burden heavy it sits upon the Potters. In betting, as in…

Value VinnyWon

Swansea Home Dominance Offers Mathematical Edge

The pickSwansea win

Chance
52%
Odds
2.00
Model EV
+4.0%

Value hunters, lend me your ears. I've crunched the numbers on this Championship mid-table clash, and while the table shows Stoke City one point ahead of Swansea, the mathematics tell a radically different story—one that points to clear betting value in South Wales. Let's start…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Swansea

4W 3D 3L1.50 pts/game

Stoke City

1W 4D 5L0.70 pts/game

Per game

Swansea at home vs Stoke City away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Championship

Overall edge
+37Swansea
Venue edge
+88Swansea
Rating period
Match snapshot
Swansea versus Stoke City: long term Elo, before the match
SwanseaHomeRatingStoke CityAway
Strength
1,498Overall1,462
1,546Match venue1,458
1,546At home1,487
1,435Away1,458
Attack & defence
1,452Attack1,404
1,539Defence1,582
1,495Home attack1,429
1,419Away attack1,400
1,566Home defence1,569
1,498Away defence1,570
Match profile
1,523Goal environment1,302
1,478Home goals1,407
1,545Away goals1,395
1,523Possession1,515
Specialist ratings
1,476Set-piece attack1,516
1,476Set-piece defence1,516
1,491Close games1,453
1,495Winning margin1,468

Match venue compares Swansea at home with Stoke City away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

SwanseaSwansea1:1

Starting XI

22Lawrence VigourouxG
14Josh TymonD
30Ethan GalbraithM
10Ji-sung EomF
15Cameron BurgessD
6Marko StamenićM
9Žan VipotnikF
5Ben CabangoD
17Gonçalo FrancoM
35RonaldF
2Josh KeyD

Stoke CityStoke City1:1

Starting XI

25Tommy SimkinG
17Eric BocatD
12Tatsuki SekoM
7Sorba ThomasM
29Lamine CisséF
23Ben GibsonD
15Steven​ N'ZonziM
10Jun-Ho BaeM
26Ashley PhillipsD
21Jesurun Rak-SakyiM
16Ben WilmotD