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Match analysis

EnglandLeague One

Reading vs Northampton

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this League One fixture.

Full time1:0HT 0–0

Match Timeline

38'
M. Ritchie🔄
Substitution 1 → D. Kyerewaa
55'
Derrick Williams🟨
Yellow Card
64'
K. Abrefa🔄
Substitution 2 → A. Yiadom
64'
B. Elliott🔄
Substitution 3 → K. Doyle
65'
K. Ehibhatiomhan⚽
Normal Goal → P. Lane
72'
M. Jacobs🔄
Substitution 1 → K. Swyer
72'
J. Willis🔄
Substitution 2 → J. Wormleighton
75'
D. Williams🔄
Substitution 4 → J. R. Dorsett A.
75'
P. Lane🔄
Substitution 5 → M. O'Mahony
87'
Matty Jacob🟨
Yellow Card
88'
T. Fornah🔄
Substitution 3 → J. Perkins
89'
N. Guinness-Walker🔄
Substitution 4 → K. Edwards
90+2'
Daniel Kyerewaa🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

5Shots on Goal1
6Shots off Goal1
14Total Shots5
3Blocked Shots3
10Shots insidebox2
4Shots outsidebox3
9Fouls9
8Corner Kicks4
0Offsides3
57Ball Possession43
3Yellow Cards0
1Goalkeeper Saves4
409Total passes313
292Passes accurate198
71Passes %63

Tipster previews (4)

Umery UnderdogLost

Northampton Ready to Bark at Reading's Door

The pickNorthampton win

Chance
35%
Odds
3.50
Model EV
+22.5%

Oh, what a delightful underdog story we have brewing here! 🐾 While the market has installed Reading as the home favorite at 1.96, my nose is twitching with excitement about the value hiding in plain sight with Northampton at 3.50. Let's look at the real story behind the odds…

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceWon

The Force of Defense vs Home Advantage

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
55%
Odds
2.03
Model EV
+11.7%

In the grand theater of League One, two paths converge. Reading, struggling near the bottom of the table with but 11 points from 12 games, yet possessing a secret strength at home. Northampton, sitting comfortably mid-table with 17 points, carrying the shield of defensive…

Mr SimpleWon

Royals Look To Build On Home Form Against Cobblers

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
54%
Odds
2.03
Model EV
+9.6%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Tuesday night tussle between Reading and Northampton. On paper, it's a tale of two teams heading in opposite directions - the Royals sitting second bottom while the Cobblers are knocking about in mid-table. But here's where it gets…

Value VinnyWon

Value Found In Low-Scoring Encounter

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
52%
Odds
2.03
Model EV
+5.6%

The bookies have priced this up all wrong, and that's where I come in. Reading might be bottom of League One, but their home form tells a different story – 75% win rate in their last four at home, scoring 1.75 per game while conceding just 0.75. That's solid home advantage that…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Reading

3W 3D 4L1.20 pts/game

Northampton

6W 1D 3L1.90 pts/game

Per game

Reading at home vs Northampton away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within League One

Overall edge
+27Reading
Venue edge
+140Reading
Rating period
Match snapshot
Reading versus Northampton: long term Elo, before the match
ReadingHomeRatingNorthamptonAway
Strength
1,490Overall1,463
1,563Match venue1,423
1,563At home1,489
1,460Away1,423
Attack & defence
1,476Attack1,402
1,522Defence1,546
1,493Home attack1,421
1,488Away attack1,409
1,571Home defence1,573
1,476Away defence1,485
Match profile
1,607Goal environment1,533
1,515Home goals1,435
1,592Away goals1,598
1,497Possession1,491
Specialist ratings
1,483Set-piece attack1,509
1,483Set-piece defence1,508
1,508Close games1,492
1,482Winning margin1,456

Match venue compares Reading at home with Northampton away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

ReadingReading1:1

Starting XI

25Jack StevensG
5Matty JacobD
8Charlie SavageM
32Paddy LaneF
33Derrick WilliamsD
10Lewis WingM
9Kelvin EhibhatiomhanF
15Paudie O’ConnorD
4Ben ElliottM
30Matt RitchieF
2Kelvin AbrefaD

NorthamptonNorthampton1:1

Starting XI

34Ross FitzsimonsG
18Michael ForbesD
12Nesta Guinness-WalkerM
17Michael JacobsF
15Jordan ThornileyD
4Dean CampbellM
19Ethan WheatleyF
6Jordan WillisD
23Terry TaylorM
14Tyrese FornahF
7Sam HoskinsM