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Match analysis

EnglandLeague One

Exeter City vs AFC Wimbledon

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this League One fixture.

Full time1:0HT 0–0

Match Timeline

44'
Jack Fitzwater🟨
Yellow Card
60'
Liam Oakes🔄
Substitution 1 → Ethan Brierley
68'
Johnly Yfeko🟨
Yellow Card
70'
Jayden Wareham🔄
Substitution 2 → Josh Magennis
71'
Akeel Higgins🔄
Substitution 3 → Sonny Cox
71'
Johnly Yfeko🔄
Substitution 4 → Luca Woodhouse
76'
Danilo Orsi-Dadomo🔄
Substitution 1 → Callum Maycock
77'
Steve Seddon🔄
Substitution 2 → Isaac Ogundere
80'
Jack McMillanâš½
Normal Goal → Ilmari Niskanen
82'
Jake Doyle Hayes🔄
Substitution 5 → Kevin McDonald
85'
Jake Reeves🔄
Substitution 3 → Myles Hippolyte
85'
Riley Harbottle🔄
Substitution 4 → Robert Junior Nkeng

Match Statistics

3Shots on Goal2
3Shots off Goal2
9Total Shots9
3Blocked Shots5
7Shots insidebox5
2Shots outsidebox4
7Fouls14
6Corner Kicks4
2Offsides3
64Ball Possession36
2Yellow Cards0
2Goalkeeper Saves2
499Total passes268
393Passes accurate172
79Passes %64

Tipster previews (6)

PajimonLost

Goals Galore Expected at St James Park

The pickBTTS Yes

Chance
62%
Odds
1.91
Model EV
+18.4%

Right then, let's get stuck into this League One clash! Exeter City are struggling near the bottom of the table in 20th spot with just 17 points, while AFC Wimbledon are sitting pretty in 9th with 26 points. But don't let those league positions fool you completely - this could…

Mr SimpleLost

Exeter vs Wimbledon: Goals Galore on the Cards?

The pickBTTS Yes

Chance
60%
Odds
1.91
Model EV
+14.6%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this League One clash down at Exeter. On paper, you'd think AFC Wimbledon have the edge sitting pretty in 9th while Exeter are languishing in 20th, but football's never that simple, is it? Exeter have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde side…

Value VinnyLost

Mathematical Value Found in Goals Market

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
68%
Odds
2.15
Model EV
+46.2%

Let's cut through the noise and focus on what the numbers tell us. The bookmakers have made a mathematical error here, and I'm here to exploit it. Exeter City sit 20th in League One with just 17 points, while AFC Wimbledon occupy 9th with 26 points - a clear quality gap on…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Exeter City

5W 1D 4L1.60 pts/game

AFC Wimbledon

4W 2D 4L1.40 pts/game

Per game

Exeter City at home vs AFC Wimbledon away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within League One

Overall edge
+15AFC Wimbledon
Venue edge
+43Exeter City
Rating period
Match snapshot
Exeter City versus AFC Wimbledon: long term Elo, before the match
Exeter CityHomeRatingAFC WimbledonAway
Strength
1,416Overall1,432
1,480Match venue1,437
1,480At home1,443
1,430Away1,437
Attack & defence
1,397Attack1,451
1,536Defence1,467
1,455Home attack1,450
1,381Away attack1,437
1,553Home defence1,511
1,516Away defence1,454
Match profile
1,493Goal environment1,477
1,478Home goals1,515
1,515Away goals1,462
1,504Possession1,482
Specialist ratings
1,486Set-piece attack1,480
1,486Set-piece defence1,481
1,436Close games1,450
1,414Winning margin1,417

Match venue compares Exeter City at home with AFC Wimbledon away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

Exeter CityExeter City1:1

Starting XI

1Joe WhitworthG
15Johnly YfekoD
2Jack McMillanM
17Akeel HigginsF
9Jayden WarehamF
5Jack FitzwaterD
31Jake Doyle HayesM
10Jack AitchisonM
26Pierce SweeneyD
34Liam OakesM
14Ilmari NiskanenF

AFC WimbledonAFC Wimbledon1:1

Starting XI

1Nathan BishopG
3Steve SeddonD
11Marcus BrowneM
7Danilo Orsi-DadomoF
26Riley HarbottleD
4Jake ReevesM
9Omar BugielF
15Patrick BauerD
12Alistair SmithM
31Joe LewisD
2Nathan AsiimweD