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Match analysis

FranceLigue 1

Lille vs Stade Brestois 29

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Ligue 1 fixture.

Full time1:1HT 0–0

Match Timeline

12'
E. Roy🟨
Yellow Card
58'
R. Labeau Lascary⚽
Normal Goal → L. Ajorque
64'
L. Ajorque🟨
Yellow Card
66'
N. Mukau🔄
Substitution 1 → N. Bentaleb
66'
S. Diaoune🔄
Substitution 2 → G. Perrin
70'
R. Labeau Lascary🔄
Substitution 1 → P. Mboup
71'
G. Perrin⚽
Normal Goal → F. Correia
74'
F. Correia🔄
Substitution 4 → M. Broholm
74'
H. Haraldsson🔄
Substitution 3 → O. Giroud
77'
J. Dina Ebimbe🔄
Substitution 2 → L. Tousart
85'
A. Bouaddi🔄
Substitution 5 → T. Santos

Match Statistics

5Shots on Goal4
7Shots off Goal3
20Total Shots11
8Blocked Shots4
15Shots insidebox6
5Shots outsidebox5
6Fouls12
12Corner Kicks1
2Offsides0
70Ball Possession30
0Yellow Cards1
3Goalkeeper Saves4
613Total passes272
533Passes accurate189
87Passes %69
1.52expected_goals0.68
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (5)

Umery UnderdogLost

Brest's Bark Could Bite Lille's Slumping Home Form

The pickStade Brestois 29 win

Chance
25%
Odds
5.00
Model EV
+25.0%

When the underdog has the wind in its sails, sometimes you just have to believe. This weekend, Stade Brestois 29 travel to face a Lille side that, on paper, should be comfortable favourites. But the data tells a story of a home team struggling for air and an away side sniffing…

Mr SimpleWon

Lille's Home Woes Meet Brest's Goal-Friendly Travels

The pickBTTS Yes

Chance
60%
Odds
1.86
Model EV
+11.6%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Ligue 1 clash. Lille, sitting 5th, welcome Brest, down in 12th, to their gaff. On paper, you'd fancy the home side, but the recent form book tells a very different story, and that's where the value might be hiding. Lille have been…

Value VinnyLost

Lille vs Brest: The Numbers Scream Goals

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
55%
Odds
1.95
Model EV
+7.2%

The data doesn't lie, and my calculator is humming. Lille, sitting 5th but wobbling, host a Brest side in 12th that's been punching above its weight. On paper, this is a mid-table Ligue 1 fixture. In the betting markets, it's a potential goldmine for those who read the stats…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Lille

3W 1D 6L1.00 pts/game

Stade Brestois 29

5W 2D 3L1.70 pts/game

Per game

Lille at home vs Stade Brestois 29 away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Ligue 1

Overall edge
+49Lille
Venue edge
+214Lille
Rating period
Match snapshot
Lille versus Stade Brestois 29: long term Elo, before the match
LilleHomeRatingStade Brestois 29Away
Strength
1,621Overall1,572
1,704Match venue1,490
1,704At home1,619
1,558Away1,490
Attack & defence
1,498Attack1,523
1,595Defence1,539
1,573Home attack1,530
1,472Away attack1,499
1,619Home defence1,609
1,587Away defence1,471
Match profile
1,387Goal environment1,657
1,500Home goals1,552
1,387Away goals1,605
1,515Possession1,477
Specialist ratings
1,538Set-piece attack1,469
1,537Set-piece defence1,470
1,617Close games1,573
1,614Winning margin1,578

Match venue compares Lille at home with Stade Brestois 29 away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

LilleLille1:1

Starting XI

1Berke ÖzerG
15Romain PerraudD
10Hakon Arnar HaraldssonM
27Félix CorreiaM
7Matías FernándezF
4Alexsandro RibeiroD
21Benjamin AndréM
35Soriba DiaouneM
18Chancel MbembaD
17Ngal'ayel MukauM
32Ayyoub BouaddiD

Stade Brestois 29Stade Brestois 291:1

Starting XI

30Grégoire CoudertG
27Daouda GuindoD
8Hugo MagnettiM
14Remy Labeau LascaryM
19Ludovic AjorqueF
4Michel DiazD
13Joris ChotardM
7Junior Dina EbimbeM
5Brendan ChardonnetD
10Romain Del CastilloM
77Kenny LalaD