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Match analysis

FranceLigue 1

Lens vs Toulouse

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Ligue 1 fixture.

Full time3:2HT 0–2

Match Timeline

6'
C. Casseres⚽
Normal Goal
13'
S. Koumbassa⚽
Normal Goal → S. Hidalgo
16'
Yann Gboho
Card upgrade
17'
Yann Gboho🟥
Red Card
45'
Arthur Masuaku🟨
Yellow Card
46'
S. Hidalgo🔄
Substitution 1 → P. Demba
55'
W. Said🔄
Substitution 1 → A. Saint-Maximin
55'
R. Fofana🔄
Substitution 2 → O. Edouard
61'
S. Abdulhamid⚽
Normal Goal → A. Saint-Maximin
64'
Emersonn🔄
Substitution 2 → J. Russell-Rowe
64'
A. Donnum🔄
Substitution 3 → D. Methalie
67'
A. Thomasson⚽
Normal Goal
72'
F. Sotoca🔄
Substitution 3 → F. Thauvin
72'
C. Cresswell🔄
Substitution 4 → D. Sidibe
76'
A. Vossah🔄
Substitution 5 → M. Sauer
85'
A. Masuaku🔄
Substitution 4 → S. Baidoo
85'
A. Thomasson🔄
Substitution 5 → A. Bulatovic
88'
Mario Sauer🟨
Yellow Card
90'
I. Ganiou⚽
Normal Goal → A. Bulatovic

Match Statistics

13Shots on Goal2
18Shots off Goal1
41Total Shots5
10Blocked Shots2
27Shots insidebox3
14Shots outsidebox2
9Fouls15
14Corner Kicks1
2Offsides0
78Ball Possession22
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
0Goalkeeper Saves10
596Total passes176
531Passes accurate111
89Passes %63
3.76expected_goals0.41
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (5)

Mr SimpleWon

Lens vs Toulouse: Over 2.5 Goals Tip & Preview

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
68%
Odds
1.73
Model EV
+17.6%

Right, let's have a chinwag about Lens taking on Toulouse at the Bollaert Stadium. Lens are sitting pretty in 2nd place with 59 points, while Toulouse are struggling in 10th with 37 points. There's a clear gap in the table, but the real story is in the goals. Lens at home are…

The Big "O"Won

Lens vs Toulouse: Goal Frenzy Awaiting?

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
77%
Odds
1.73
Model EV
+33.2%

Life's too short for nil-nil, and that's exactly why we're here. When Lens hosts Toulouse in Ligue 1, the goal expectancy is screaming for action. The Big O is here to tell you why this fixture is a prime candidate for the Over 2.5 Goals market. Let's look at the numbers. Lens…

Value VinnyWon

Lens vs Toulouse: Value Analysis

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
75%
Odds
1.73
Model EV
+29.8%

Odds don't lie — but bookies do. That's the motto of Value Vinny, and today we're hunting for real Expected Value in the Ligue 1 clash between Lens and Toulouse. The numbers tell a clear story, and the bookmakers are underpricing the goal expectancy. Lens enters this fixture…

PajimonWon

Lens vs Toulouse: Ligue 1 Match Preview & Betting Tips

The pickLens win

Chance
75%
Odds
1.53
Model EV
+14.8%

Goeie dag, braai seun! It's time to fire up the grill and pour a cold one because we've got a proper Ligue 1 fixture to dissect. Lens versus Toulouse, kicking off on 2026-04-17. Now, I don't do politics or nonsense, just the meat of the match. What do you mean no meat? We are…

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceWon

Lens vs Toulouse: Yoda's Wise Preview

The pickLens win

Chance
75%
Odds
1.53
Model EV
+14.8%

Listen, you must. The Force is strong with Lens, but patience, you must have. In the Ligue 1, a battle awaits. Lens, the home team, stands tall. Their home win rate is 75.00%, a strong number. Goals, they score with ease. 3.25 goals per game at home, the data shows. Toulouse…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Lens

5W 2D 3L1.70 pts/game

Toulouse

2W 2D 6L0.80 pts/game

Per game

Lens at home vs Toulouse away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Ligue 1

Overall edge
+139Lens
Venue edge
+125Lens
Rating period
Match snapshot
Lens versus Toulouse: long term Elo, before the match
LensHomeRatingToulouseAway
Strength
1,675Overall1,535
1,666Match venue1,542
1,666At home1,482
1,610Away1,542
Attack & defence
1,587Attack1,482
1,628Defence1,576
1,586Home attack1,457
1,525Away attack1,502
1,634Home defence1,550
1,606Away defence1,581
Match profile
1,597Goal environment1,523
1,543Home goals1,553
1,553Away goals1,470
1,501Possession1,471
Specialist ratings
1,547Set-piece attack1,493
1,545Set-piece defence1,493
1,612Close games1,475
1,697Winning margin1,553

Match venue compares Lens at home with Toulouse away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

LensLens1:1

Starting XI

40Robin RisserG
27Arthur MasuakuD
14Matthieu UdolM
22Wesley SaidF
38Rayan FofanaF
20Malang SarrD
28Adrien ThomassonM
7Florian SotocaF
25Ismaelo GaniouD
8Mamadou SangareM
23Saud AbdulhamidM

ToulouseToulouse1:1

Starting XI

1Guillaume RestesG
2Rasmus NicolaisenD
12Warren KamanziM
11Santiago HidalgoF
20EmersonnF
4Charlie CresswellD
45Alexis VossahM
10Yann GbohoF
35Seny KoumbassaD
23Cristian Cásseres Jr.M
15Aron DønnumM