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Match analysis

GermanyBundesliga

FSV Mainz 05 vs 1899 Hoffenheim

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Bundesliga fixture.

Match Timeline

9'
A. Hanche-Olsen⚽
Own Goal → W. Burger
24'
Silvan Widmer🟨
Yellow Card
42'
Bernardo🟨
Yellow Card
46'
L. Maloney🔄
Substitution 1 → D. da Costa
46'
S. Widmer🔄
Substitution 2 → S. Kawasaki
58'
A. Kramaric🔄
Substitution 1 → T. Lemperle
67'
Lee Jae-Sung🔄
Substitution 3 → N. Weiper
68'
Robin Hranáč🟨
Yellow Card
76'
D. da Costa⚽
Normal Goal → B. Hollerbach
77'
B. Toure🔄
Substitution 2 → M. Moerstedt
88'
Dominik Kohr🟥
Red Card
88'
Dominik Kohr
Card upgrade
90'
B. Hollerbach🔄
Substitution 4 → S. Bell
90'
F. Asllani🔄
Substitution 3 → I. Bebou
90+5'
Nadiem Amiri🟨
Yellow Card
90+6'
Phillipp Mwene🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

3Shots on Goal5
7Shots off Goal7
17Total Shots19
7Blocked Shots7
16Shots insidebox13
1Shots outsidebox6
13Fouls13
7Corner Kicks4
2Offsides2
46Ball Possession54
3Yellow Cards2
1Red Cards0
4Goalkeeper Saves0
380Total passes471
268Passes accurate343
71Passes %73
2.53expected_goals1.47
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (4)

PajimonLost

Hoffenheim To Continue Away Day Domination

The pick1899 Hoffenheim win

Chance
65%
Odds
2.75
Model EV
+78.8%

Right then, let's get straight to business! This looks like a proper mismatch if you ask me. Mainz are sitting rock bottom of the Bundesliga with just 5 points from 10 games - that's relegation form, my friend! They've only managed 1 win in the league all season and are getting…

Umery UnderdogLost

Mainz's Home Magic Against Hoffenheim

The pickFSV Mainz 05 win

Chance
47%
Odds
2.40
Model EV
+12.8%

Oh, what a delightful underdog story we have brewing here! While everyone's looking at the league table and seeing Hoffenheim sitting pretty in 6th place versus poor Mainz languishing in 17th, I've spotted something rather special that the masses might be overlooking. You see…

Mr CertaintyLost

Hoffenheim Set to Extend Mainz's Misery

The pick1899 Hoffenheim win

Chance
68%
Odds
2.75
Model EV
+87.0%

This Bundesliga clash presents a stark contrast in form between two teams heading in opposite directions. FSV Mainz 05 finds themselves rooted to the bottom of the table with just 5 points from 10 matches, while 1899 Hoffenheim sits comfortably in 6th place with 19 points…

Value VinnyLost

Mainz vs Hoffenheim: Goal-Fest Value on the Cards

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
68%
Odds
1.62
Model EV
+10.2%

Let's cut through the noise and look at the cold, hard numbers. Mainz are rock bottom of the Bundesliga with just 5 points from 10 games, and their home form tells the story - losing half their matches at their own ground. They're managing a paltry 0.90 goals per game while…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

FSV Mainz 05

3W 1D 6L1.00 pts/game

1899 Hoffenheim

6W 2D 2L2.00 pts/game

Per game

FSV Mainz 05 at home vs 1899 Hoffenheim away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Bundesliga

Overall edge
+551899 Hoffenheim
Venue edge
+91899 Hoffenheim
Rating period
Match snapshot
FSV Mainz 05 versus 1899 Hoffenheim: long term Elo, before the match
FSV Mainz 05HomeRating1899 HoffenheimAway
Strength
1,515Overall1,570
1,535Match venue1,544
1,535At home1,500
1,505Away1,544
Attack & defence
1,501Attack1,594
1,570Defence1,486
1,494Home attack1,546
1,505Away attack1,579
1,598Home defence1,455
1,543Away defence1,496
Match profile
1,995Goal environment2,662
1,650Home goals2,092
1,845Away goals2,070
1,499Possession1,504
Specialist ratings
1,524Set-piece attack1,496
1,523Set-piece defence1,496
1,439Close games1,488
1,529Winning margin1,596

Match venue compares FSV Mainz 05 at home with 1899 Hoffenheim away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

FSV Mainz 05FSV Mainz 051:1

Starting XI

27Robin ZentnerG
25Andreas Hanche-OlsenD
30Silvan WidmerM
17Benedict HollerbachF
7Jae-sung LeeF
15Lennard MaloneyD
6Kaishu SanoM
8Paul NebelF
31Dominik KohrD
10Nadiem AmiriM
2Phillipp MweneM

1899 Hoffenheim1899 Hoffenheim1:1

Starting XI

1Oliver BaumannG
13BernardoD
18Wouter BurgerM
27Andrej KramarićM
11Fisnik AsllaniF
21Albian HajdariD
7Leon AvdullahuM
29Bazoumana TouréF
2Robin HranáčD
6Grischa PrömelM
34Vladimír CoufalD