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Match analysis

GermanyBundesliga

Bayer Leverkusen vs Borussia Dortmund

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Bundesliga fixture.

Bayer LeverkusenHome
Full time1:2HT 0–1
Borussia DortmundAway

Match Timeline

11'
Nico Schlotterbeck🟨
Yellow Card
30'
Malik Tillman🟨
Yellow Card
40'
Edmond Tapsoba🟨
Yellow Card
41'
A. Anselmino⚽
Normal Goal → D. Svensson
54'
Julian Ryerson🟨
Yellow Card
61'
S. Guirassy🔄
Substitution 1 → F. Silva
63'
P. Schick🔄
Substitution 1 → C. M. Kofane
65'
K. Adeyemi⚽
Normal Goal → F. Silva
74'
J. Hofmann🔄
Substitution 2 → C. Echeverri
74'
M. Tillman🔄
Substitution 3 → M. Terrier
80'
J. Ryerson🔄
Substitution 2 → Y. Couto
80'
K. Adeyemi🔄
Substitution 3 → J. Bellingham
82'
Fábio Silva🟨
Yellow Card
83'
C. M. Kofane⚽
Normal Goal → I. Maza
88'
Yan Couto🟨
Yellow Card
88'
R. Andrich🔄
Substitution 4 → J. Quansah
88'
E. Poku🔄
Substitution 5 → N. Tella
90+1'
F. Nmecha🔄
Substitution 4 → R. Bensebaini
90+1'
J. Brandt🔄
Substitution 5 → C. Chukwuemeka
90+4'
Aleix García🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

4Shots on Goal4
6Shots off Goal3
14Total Shots7
4Blocked Shots0
9Shots insidebox6
5Shots outsidebox1
7Fouls9
10Corner Kicks3
2Offsides1
63Ball Possession37
3Yellow Cards4
2Goalkeeper Saves3
611Total passes351
546Passes accurate292
89Passes %83
0.93expected_goals1.02
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (2)

Umery UnderdogWon

Dortmund Ready to Bark at Leverkusen's Home

The pickBorussia Dortmund win

Chance
42%
Odds
2.62
Model EV
+10.0%

Oh, what a delightful treat we have here! While everyone might be looking at the league table and seeing Leverkusen sitting pretty in third, your old pal Umery has spotted something rather special. Let me tell you about these plucky underdogs from Dortmund! Now, I know what…

Value VinnyWon

Value Found in Dortmund's Historical Dominance

The pickBorussia Dortmund win

Chance
45%
Odds
2.62
Model EV
+17.9%

Let's cut through the noise and focus on what the numbers tell us. The market has this as a coin flip (2.55 vs 2.62), but the mathematical reality tells a different story. Bayer Leverkusen sits third with 23 points, boasting an impressive 70% win rate over their last 10 games…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Bayer Leverkusen

7W 1D 2L2.20 pts/game

Borussia Dortmund

4W 4D 2L1.60 pts/game

Per game

Bayer Leverkusen at home vs Borussia Dortmund away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Bundesliga

Overall edge
+64Bayer Leverkusen
Venue edge
+68Bayer Leverkusen
Rating period
Match snapshot
Bayer Leverkusen versus Borussia Dortmund: long term Elo, before the match
Bayer LeverkusenHomeRatingBorussia DortmundAway
Strength
1,760Overall1,697
1,690Match venue1,622
1,690At home1,724
1,748Away1,622
Attack & defence
1,661Attack1,638
1,607Defence1,606
1,629Home attack1,684
1,660Away attack1,589
1,632Home defence1,610
1,582Away defence1,561
Match profile
2,437Goal environment2,897
2,040Home goals2,315
1,897Away goals2,082
1,518Possession1,511
Specialist ratings
1,485Set-piece attack1,504
1,486Set-piece defence1,504
1,643Close games1,576
1,790Winning margin1,735

Match venue compares Bayer Leverkusen at home with Borussia Dortmund away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen1:1

Starting XI

1Mark FlekkenG
12Edmond TapsobaD
20Alejandro GrimaldoM
19Ernest PokuF
14Patrik SchickF
5Loïc BadéD
24Aleix GarcíaM
10Malik TillmanF
8Robert AndrichD
30Ibrahim MazaM
7Jonas HofmannM

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund1:1

Starting XI

1Gregor KobelG
4Nico SchlotterbeckD
24Daniel SvenssonM
10Julian BrandtF
9Serhou GuirassyF
3Waldemar AntonD
20Marcel SabitzerM
27Karim AdeyemiF
28Aarón AnselminoD
8Felix NmechaM
26Julian RyersonM

Quick Links

Bayer Leverkusen Team Page →Borussia Dortmund Team Page →View Bundesliga Overview →View Standings →