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Match analysis

GermanyBundesliga

Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Bundesliga fixture.

Match Timeline

17'
R. Glatzel⚽
Normal Goal → A. Rossing-Lelesiit
23'
Pascal Stenzel🟨
Yellow Card
33'
R. Glatzel🔄
Substitution 1 → R. Konigsdorffer
40'
C. Fuhrich🔄
Substitution 1 → D. Undav
46'
P. Stenzel🔄
Substitution 2 → J. Leweling
54'
D. Undav⚽
Normal Goal
58'
N. Nartey🔄
Substitution 3 → A. Stiller
65'
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit🟨
Yellow Card
67'
W. Mikelbrencis🔄
Substitution 2 → G. Gocholeishvili
67'
A. S. Lokonga🔄
Substitution 3 → F. Vieira
68'
R. Philippe🔄
Substitution 4 → F. Balde
74'
Chema Andrés🟨
Yellow Card
81'
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit🟨
Yellow Card
81'
Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit🟥
Red Card
81'
Deniz Undav🟨
Yellow Card
87'
Josha Vagnoman🟨
Yellow Card
87'
R. Hendriks🔄
Substitution 4 → M. Mittelstadt
87'
B. Bouanani🔄
Substitution 5 → L. Jovanovic
88'
Unknown Player🔄
Substitution 5 → G. Ramos
90'
F. Vieira⚽
Normal Goal → F. Balde

Match Statistics

2Shots on Goal3
4Shots off Goal8
9Total Shots14
3Blocked Shots3
8Shots insidebox7
1Shots outsidebox7
16Fouls12
4Corner Kicks6
0Offsides1
34Ball Possession66
2Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
2Goalkeeper Saves0
278Total passes543
202Passes accurate472
73Passes %87
0.86expected_goals0.67
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (6)

The Big "O"Won

Goal Fest Incoming When Stuttgart Visits Hamburg

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
68%
Odds
1.53
Model EV
+4.0%

Get ready for some serious goal action, folks! The Big O is getting excited about this Bundesliga clash, and you should too. When Hamburger SV hosts VfB Stuttgart, we're looking at a recipe for goal-scoring fireworks that'll have us all reaching for the big O-ver markets! Let's…

Mr SimpleLost

Stuttgart To Continue Hamburg's Misery

The pickVfB Stuttgart win

Chance
58%
Odds
2.15
Model EV
+24.7%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Hamburg are in a right old mess down in 14th, scraping just 9 points from 11 games. They've been shocking recently - one point from their last three league matches, including getting hammered 4-1 by Köln and losing 1-0 to…

PajimonLost

Stuttgart to Sink Struggling Hamburg

The pickVfB Stuttgart win

Chance
50%
Odds
2.15
Model EV
+7.5%

Ag man, this one looks pretty straightforward! Hamburg are in the kakhuis sitting 14th with only 9 points from 11 games, while Stuttgart are flying high in 5th place with 22 points. That's a massive gap that tells you everything you need to know about these two teams right now…

Umery UnderdogWon

Hamburg's Home Fortress Could Surprise Stuttgart

The pickHamburger SV win

Chance
36%
Odds
3.00
Model EV
+8.0%

Oh, what a delightful opportunity we have here! Everyone will be looking at the league table and backing Stuttgart, but my underdog senses are tingling with excitement for Hamburger SV at home! Let's look beyond the standings for a moment. Hamburg may be 14th, but they transform…

Value VinnyLost

Stuttgart's Value Away Day at Hamburg

The pickVfB Stuttgart win

Chance
55%
Odds
2.15
Model EV
+18.3%

Let's cut through the noise and look at the numbers. Stuttgart sit 5th with 22 points from 11 games, while Hamburg languish in 14th with just 9 points. That's not coincidence - that's statistical reality. Stuttgart's recent form tells the story: 6 wins from their last 10 games…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Hamburger SV

3W 2D 5L1.10 pts/game

VfB Stuttgart

7W 1D 2L2.20 pts/game

Per game

Hamburger SV at home vs VfB Stuttgart away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Bundesliga

Overall edge
+216VfB Stuttgart
Venue edge
+102VfB Stuttgart
Rating period
Match snapshot
Hamburger SV versus VfB Stuttgart: long term Elo, before the match
Hamburger SVHomeRatingVfB StuttgartAway
Strength
1,423Overall1,639
1,480Match venue1,582
1,480At home1,619
1,378Away1,582
Attack & defence
1,379Attack1,626
1,519Defence1,549
1,429Home attack1,620
1,349Away attack1,583
1,545Home defence1,582
1,486Away defence1,529
Match profile
1,613Goal environment2,270
1,502Home goals1,847
1,612Away goals1,923
1,496Possession1,518
Specialist ratings
1,479Set-piece attack1,511
1,480Set-piece defence1,510
1,480Close games1,568
1,413Winning margin1,661

Match venue compares Hamburger SV at home with VfB Stuttgart away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

Hamburger SVHamburger SV1:1

Starting XI

1D. Heuer FernandesG
25J. TorunarighaD
28M. MuheimM
38A. Rossing-LelesiitF
44L. VuskovicD
21N. RembergM
9R. GlatzelF
24N. CapaldoD
6A. S. LokongaM
14R. PhilippeF
2W. MikelbrencisM

VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart1:1

Starting XI

33A. NubelG
3R. HendriksD
15P. StenzelM
10C. FuhrichF
27B. BouananiF
24J. ChabotD
28N. NarteyM
11B. El KhannoussF
2A. Al DakhilD
30C. AndresM
4J. VagnomanM