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Match analysis

GermanyBundesliga

SC Freiburg vs Bayern München

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Bundesliga fixture.

Match Timeline

25'
Jonathan Tah🟨
Yellow Card
29'
Matthias Ginter🟨
Yellow Card
46'
J. Manzambi⚽
Normal Goal → M. Eggestein
56'
J. Tah🔄
Substitution 1 → K. Laimer
56'
R. Guerreiro🔄
Substitution 2 → M. Olise
56'
L. Goretzka🔄
Substitution 3 → A. Pavlovic
65'
C. Gunter🔄
Substitution 1 → L. Kubler
65'
S. Gnabry🔄
Substitution 4 → J. Musiala
71'
L. Holer⚽
Normal Goal
73'
Michael Olise🟨
Yellow Card
78'
J. Manzambi🔄
Substitution 2 → I. Matanovic
78'
J. Beste🔄
Substitution 3 → C. Irie
81'
T. Bischof⚽
Normal Goal → L. Karl
87'
Kim Min-Jae🔄
Substitution 5 → A. Davies
89'
L. Holer🔄
Substitution 4 → B. Ogbus
90'
Y. Suzuki🔄
Substitution 5 → N. Hofler
90'
T. Bischof⚽
Normal Goal → M. Olise
90'
L. Karl⚽
Normal Goal → A. Davies
90+9'
Noah Atubolu🟨
Yellow Card
90+10'
Lennart Karl🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

4Shots on Goal9
5Shots off Goal5
13Total Shots21
4Blocked Shots7
9Shots insidebox8
4Shots outsidebox13
9Fouls13
5Corner Kicks8
4Offsides1
30Ball Possession70
2Yellow Cards3
6Goalkeeper Saves2
257Total passes636
189Passes accurate563
74Passes %89
1.82expected_goals2.8
0goals_prevented0

Tipster preview

Value VinnyWon

SC Freiburg vs Bayern München Preview

The pickBayern München win

Chance
80%
Odds
1.40
Model EV
+12.0%

Odds don't lie — but bookies do. That's the mantra I live by, and today's fixture between SC Freiburg and Bayern München is a prime example of where the market might be slightly off. Let's look at the numbers. Bayern München is sitting pretty on top of the Bundesliga table with…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

SC Freiburg

4W 2D 4L1.40 pts/game

Bayern München

9W 1D 0L2.80 pts/game

Per game

SC Freiburg at home vs Bayern München away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Bundesliga

Overall edge
+279Bayern München
Venue edge
+165Bayern München
Rating period
Match snapshot
SC Freiburg versus Bayern München: long term Elo, before the match
SC FreiburgHomeRatingBayern MünchenAway
Strength
1,579Overall1,857
1,612Match venue1,777
1,612At home1,836
1,520Away1,777
Attack & defence
1,515Attack1,830
1,536Defence1,649
1,576Home attack1,809
1,440Away attack1,762
1,542Home defence1,644
1,537Away defence1,632
Match profile
2,040Goal environment3,127
1,778Home goals2,508
1,762Away goals2,118
1,492Possession1,566
Specialist ratings
1,505Set-piece attack1,577
1,505Set-piece defence1,575
1,616Close games1,639
1,573Winning margin1,926

Match venue compares SC Freiburg at home with Bayern München away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

SC FreiburgSC Freiburg1:1

Starting XI

1N. AtuboluG
30C. GunterD
44J. ManzambiM
7D. ScherhantM
9L. HolerF
3P. LienhartD
8M. EggesteinM
14Y. SuzukiM
28M. GinterD
19J. BesteM
29P. TreuD

Bayern MünchenBayern München1:1

Starting XI

1M. NeuerG
20T. BischofD
8L. GoretzkaM
14L. DiazM
7S. GnabryF
4J. TahD
6J. KimmichM
22R. GuerreiroM
3Kim Min-JaeD
42L. KarlM
44J. StanisicD