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Match analysis

GermanyBundesliga

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Bundesliga fixture.

Match Timeline

5'
Ramy Bensebaini🟨
Yellow Card
42'
R. Andrich⚽
Normal Goal
45'
Serhou Guirassy🟨
Yellow Card
54'
C. Kofane🔄
Substitution 1 → P. Schick
59'
D. Svensson🔄
Substitution 1 → M. Beier
63'
Maximilian Beier🟨
Yellow Card
64'
F. Silva🔄
Substitution 2 → S. Inacio
64'
M. Sabitzer🔄
Substitution 3 → C. Chukwuemeka
74'
M. Culbreath🔄
Substitution 2 → Lucas
74'
N. Tella🔄
Substitution 3 → E. Poku
75'
J. Ryerson🔄
Substitution 4 → A. Kabar
76'
J. Bellingham🔄
Substitution 5 → S. Ozcan
90+2'
I. Maza🔄
Substitution 4 → M. Tillman

Match Statistics

1Shots on Goal4
11Shots off Goal4
14Total Shots11
2Blocked Shots3
8Shots insidebox5
6Shots outsidebox6
5Fouls6
5Corner Kicks5
2Offsides1
53Ball Possession47
3Yellow Cards0
3Goalkeeper Saves0
558Total passes517
505Passes accurate462
91Passes %89
1.26expected_goals0.6
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (2)

Umery UnderdogWon

Dortmund vs Leverkusen: The Underdog's Chance

The pickBayer Leverkusen win

Chance
35%
Odds
3.60
Model EV
+26.0%

Hello football fans! It's Umery Underdog here, ready to sniff out the hidden gems in this Bundesliga clash. Today, we look at Borussia Dortmund hosting Bayer Leverkusen on April 11, 2026. While Dortmund sits comfortably in 2nd place with 64 points, Leverkusen is the underdog in…

Value VinnyLost

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen: Value Analysis

The pickBorussia Dortmund win

Chance
60%
Odds
1.95
Model EV
+17.0%

Odds don’t lie — but bookies do. That’s the mantra of Value Vinny, and today we’re dissecting the numbers for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. This isn’t about hunches; it’s about finding the edge where the market has mispriced the probability. Dortmund…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Borussia Dortmund

7W 1D 2L2.20 pts/game

Bayer Leverkusen

2W 6D 2L1.20 pts/game

Per game

Borussia Dortmund at home vs Bayer Leverkusen away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Bundesliga

Overall edge
+89Borussia Dortmund
Venue edge
+50Borussia Dortmund
Rating period
Match snapshot
Borussia Dortmund versus Bayer Leverkusen: long term Elo, before the match
Borussia DortmundHomeRatingBayer LeverkusenAway
Strength
1,775Overall1,687
1,750Match venue1,701
1,750At home1,684
1,673Away1,701
Attack & defence
1,701Attack1,618
1,623Defence1,579
1,719Home attack1,616
1,626Away attack1,629
1,616Home defence1,624
1,590Away defence1,567
Match profile
2,952Goal environment2,468
2,350Home goals2,057
2,102Away goals1,912
1,512Possession1,539
Specialist ratings
1,514Set-piece attack1,542
1,513Set-piece defence1,540
1,624Close games1,598
1,822Winning margin1,707

Match venue compares Borussia Dortmund at home with Bayer Leverkusen away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

Borussia DortmundBorussia Dortmund1:1

Starting XI

1Gregor KobelG
5Ramy BensebainiD
24Daniel SvenssonM
21Fábio SilvaF
9Serhou GuirassyF
4Nico SchlotterbeckD
10Julian BrandtM
3Waldemar AntonD
7Jobe BellinghamM
20Marcel SabitzerM
26Julian RyersonM

Bayer LeverkusenBayer Leverkusen1:1

Starting XI

1Mark FlekkenG
12Edmond TapsobaD
20Alejandro GrimaldoM
23Nathan TellaF
35Christian KofaneF
5Loïc BadéD
24Aleix GarcíaM
30Ibrahim MazaF
8Robert AndrichD
25Exequiel PalaciosM
42Montrell CulbreathM