Sun, 12 Apr 2026, 15:30
Bundesliga
Germany
Germany
Full Time

Match Timeline

21'
A. Stiller
Normal Goal → J. Leweling
24'
Chema Andrés🟨
Yellow Card
32'
C. Fuhrich
Normal Goal → E. Demirovic
56'
M. Mittelstadt
Normal Goal → C. Fuhrich
60'
R. Philippe🔄
Substitution 1 → O. Stange
60'
A. Gronbaek🔄
Substitution 2 → R. Glatzel
67'
Ermedin Demirović
Goal cancelled
70'
C. Andres🔄
Substitution 1 → N. Nartey
70'
E. Demirovic🔄
Substitution 2 → T. Tomas
70'
C. Fuhrich🔄
Substitution 3 → B. El Khannouss
72'
F. Balde🔄
Substitution 3 → G. Gocholeishvili
72'
D. Elfadli🔄
Substitution 4 → N. Capaldo
80'
Deniz Undav🟨
Yellow Card
80'
Nicolás Capaldo🟨
Yellow Card
81'
Tiago Tomás
Penalty confirmed
86'
B. El Khannouss
Normal Goal → T. Tomas
88'
L. Assignon🔄
Substitution 4 → J. Vagnoman
88'
D. Undav🔄
Substitution 5 → Jeremy Arevalo

Match Statistics

11Shots on Goal5
5Shots off Goal4
23Total Shots9
7Blocked Shots0
16Shots insidebox4
7Shots outsidebox5
10Fouls14
8Corner Kicks2
5Offsides1
65Ball Possession35
2Yellow Cards1
4Goalkeeper Saves7
539Total passes294
458Passes accurate221
85Passes %75
3.64expected_goals0.61
0goals_prevented0

Starting Lineups

VfB StuttgartVfB Stuttgart1:1

Starting XI

33Alexander NübelG
7Maximilian MittelstädtD
6Angelo StillerM
10Chris FührichM
9Ermedin DemirovićF
24Jeff ChabotD
30Chema AndrésM
26Deniz UndavM
3Ramon HendriksD
18Jamie LewelingM
22Lorenz AssignonD

Hamburger SVHamburger SV1:1

Starting XI

1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
8Daniel ElfadliD
45Fabio BaldéM
20Fábio VieiraF
14Rayan PhilippeF
25Jordan TorunarighaD
21Nicolai RembergM
11Ransford Yeboah KönigsdörfferF
17Warmed OmariD
23Albert GrønbækM
2William MikelbrencisM

Head-to-Head

📈 Team Form & Statistics

VfB Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
Form: L-W-L-W-L
Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV
Form: D-L-D-W-L
Record
4 W
2 D
4 L
3 W
4 D
3 L
Goals Per Game
2.0
Scored
vs
1.5
Scored
1.5
Conceded
vs
1.4
Conceded
Betting Indicators
Clean Sheets
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
BTTS
50%
BTTS
80%
Home/Away Performance
Scored
Home:1.2
Away:2.8
Conceded
Home:1.0
Away:2.0
Scored
Home:1.3
Away:1.8
Conceded
Home:1.5
Away:1.3

⚡ Elo Ratings

Long Term Elo Rating
1640
Good
1511
Average
Short Term Elo Rating
1703
↑ Momentum (+63)
1543
↑ Momentum (+33)
Expected Outcome
49%
Home Win
28%
Draw
23%
Away Win
Attack & Defence Elo
Long Term
1586
Attack
1455
1572
Defence
1549
Recent Form
1571
Attack
1474
1582
Defence
1570
Post-Match Changes
+5
Rating Change
0
Rating Change
Elo ratings measure team strength based on match results and opponent quality. Higher ratings indicate stronger teams.

📝 Match Preview

VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV: BTTS Yes Value
Recommendation:BOTH_TEAMS_TO_SCORE_YES
Odds:1.67
Expected Value:+16.9%
Confidence:7

Hey guys, Pajimon here. No veggies today, we want the meat! VfB Stuttgart vs Hamburger SV is a classic Bundesliga clash. Stuttgart sits 4th with 53 points, while Hamburg is 12th with 31 points. The H2H record is the real story here. In 10 previous meetings, 9 matches saw Both Teams To Score (BTTS). That is a 90% hit rate. Looking at the goal stats, Stuttgart averages 2.0 goals scored per game in their last 10 matches, conceding 1.5. Hamburg averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The goal expectancy model suggests a total of 2.61 goals (1.23 for Home, 1.38 for Away). This points strongly towards goals at both ends. Hamburg's away form is solid too. In their last 4 away games, they won 50% and scored 1.75 goals per game. Stuttgart's home form is a bit mixed (40% win rate), but they still average 1.20 goals scored at home. The odds for BTTS Yes are 1.67. This is above the 1.6 threshold, making it a viable long-term play. The implied probability is roughly 60%, but our data suggests the true probability is around 70%. That gives us a nice edge. Baie goeie kans (Very good chance). Politics? No way. Racism? No way. Just pure football and BBQ vibes. The pick is BTTS Yes.

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