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Match analysis

SpainSegunda División

Albacete vs Zaragoza

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Segunda División fixture.

Full time2:0HT 1–0

Match Timeline

5'
Agus Medina⚽
Normal Goal → F. Gamez
30'
P. Akouokou🟨
Yellow Card
34'
M. Aguirregabiria🟨
Yellow Card
52'
K. Kodro🔄
Substitution 2 → S. Bakis
52'
P. Akouokou🔄
Substitution 3 → K. Bare
52'
P. Insua🔄
Substitution 1 → Y. Saidu
56'
J. Betancor⚽
Normal Goal → V. Valverde
63'
C. Neva🟨
Yellow Card
63'
K. Bare🟨
Yellow Card
64'
M. Aguirregabiria🔄
Substitution 4 → H. Barrachina
70'
J. Betancor🔄
Substitution 3 → S. Obeng
70'
C. Neva🔄
Substitution 1 → J. Moreno
70'
V. Valverde🔄
Substitution 2 → J. Lazo
76'
Agus Medina🔄
Substitution 4 → A. Puertas
79'
R. Guti🔄
Substitution 5 → L. Terrer
85'
A. Pacheco🟨
Yellow Card
85'
A. Melendez🔄
Substitution 5 → Capi

Match Statistics

4Shots on Goal3
3Shots off Goal1
10Total Shots8
3Blocked Shots4
8Shots insidebox5
2Shots outsidebox3
7Fouls7
5Corner Kicks4
3Offsides2
37Ball Possession63
2Yellow Cards3
3Goalkeeper Saves2
311Total passes554
240Passes accurate476
77Passes %86

Tipster previews (6)

Value VinnyLost

Goal Glut Expected: Over 2.5 Goals the Value Play

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
58%
Odds
2.03
Model EV
+17.7%

The numbers don't lie, and my calculator is buzzing. Albacete welcomes Zaragoza in a Segunda División clash that screams goals, and the market hasn't quite caught up. Let's break down why the value lies squarely with the Over 2.5 goals market. Albacete sit comfortably mid-table…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Albacete

5W 3D 2L1.80 pts/game

Zaragoza

3W 5D 2L1.40 pts/game

Per game

Albacete at home vs Zaragoza away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Segunda División

Overall edge
+63Albacete
Venue edge
+40Albacete
Rating period
Match snapshot
Albacete versus Zaragoza: long term Elo, before the match
AlbaceteHomeRatingZaragozaAway
Strength
1,530Overall1,467
1,531Match venue1,491
1,531At home1,451
1,498Away1,491
Attack & defence
1,475Attack1,438
1,529Defence1,517
1,506Home attack1,432
1,454Away attack1,456
1,502Home defence1,509
1,540Away defence1,537
Match profile
1,252Goal environment1,180
1,350Home goals1,285
1,402Away goals1,395
1,476Possession1,497
Specialist ratings
1,510Set-piece attack1,460
1,510Set-piece defence1,461
1,560Close games1,503
1,520Winning margin1,453

Match venue compares Albacete at home with Zaragoza away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

AlbaceteAlbacete1:1

Starting XI

1Diego MariñoG
21Carlos NevaD
3Jonathan GómezM
11Victor ValverdeF
10Jefté BetancorF
18Javi VillarD
17Alejandro MeléndezM
4Agus MedinaF
24Jesús VallejoD
6Antonio PachecoM
15Fran GámezM

ZaragozaZaragoza1:1

Starting XI

1Esteban AndradaG
2Juan Sebastian SerranoD
24Paul AkouokouM
17Sebas MoyanoM
19Kenan KodroF
5Alberto RodríguezD
10Raúl GutiM
4Pablo InsuaD
11Rober GonzálezM
20Martín AguirregabiriaD
14Francho SerranoM