Welcome to the Segunda División showdown between Real Sociedad II and Eibar! As Umery Underdog, I always look for the little puppies that the bookmakers might have overlooked. In this fixture, Eibar steps onto the pitch as the underdog on the odds, but the data tells a different story for the pups. Eibar sits comfortably in 8th place with 48 points, while Real Sociedad II trails in 15th with 40 points. Despite Sociedad II being the home favorite on the odds (2.60), Eibar holds a perfect 4-0 head-to-head record against them. In fact, Eibar has won all four previous meetings, including both matches played at Sociedad II's home ground. This historical dominance is a massive signal for the underdog. Defensively, Eibar is a fortress. In their last 10 games, they have conceded just 0.50 goals per game, compared to Sociedad II's 1.40 goals conceded per game. Eibar's recent away form shows a 50% win rate in their last four away games, and they have kept five clean sheets in their last ten matches. This defensive solidity suggests they can hold firm against Sociedad II's attack. The odds for an Eibar away win sit at 3.00, implying a 33.3% chance of success. However, considering their perfect head-to-head record and superior defensive stats, we believe their true probability is closer to 40%. This gap creates the value we love to find. While Sociedad II has a decent home win rate of 50% in their last four home games, they have never beaten Eibar in this specific matchup. So, let's back the little puppy! Eibar has the historical edge and the defensive discipline to secure the three points. We are confident that the underdog can pull off the upset here. Our pick: Eibar to win.