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Match analysis

ItalySerie B

Padova vs Carrarese

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie B fixture.

Full time1:0HT 1–0

Match Timeline

4'
J. Illanes🟨
Yellow Card
29'
K. Lasagna⚽
Normal Goal
46'
A. SeghettiπŸ”„
Substitution 1 β†’ C. Faedo
49'
P. Fusi🟨
Yellow Card
57'
F. Di MarianoπŸ”„
Substitution 2 β†’ M. Bortolussi
59'
M. Perrotta🟨
Yellow Card
60'
E. ZuelliπŸ”„
Substitution 1 β†’ M. Finotto
63'
J. IllanesπŸ”„
Substitution 3 β†’ M. Imperiale
63'
J. RouhiπŸ”„
Substitution 2 β†’ N. Belloni
64'
S. Zanon🟨
Yellow Card
66'
F. Oliana🟨
Yellow Card
78'
P. FusiπŸ”„
Substitution 3 β†’ L. Di Maggio
78'
T. RubinoπŸ”„
Substitution 5 β†’ F. Melegoni
78'
N. CalabreseπŸ”„
Substitution 4 β†’ N. Sekulov
80'
K. VarasπŸ”„
Substitution 4 β†’ G. Giunti
81'
F. BelliπŸ”„
Substitution 5 β†’ F. Sgarbi

Match Statistics

2Shots on Goal1
6Shots off Goal12
13Total Shots20
5Blocked Shots7
6Shots insidebox13
7Shots outsidebox7
18Fouls10
3Corner Kicks8
2Offsides0
36Ball Possession64
2Yellow Cards3
1Goalkeeper Saves1
302Total passes512
217Passes accurate431
72Passes %84
0.56expected_goals0.88
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (6)

Value VinnyLost

Carrarese's Travel Sickness Points to Goal Glut

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
65%
Odds
2.18
Model EV
+41.7%

The Serie B table shows a modest four-point gap between these two mid-table sides, but the underlying numbers scream a very different story. Padova sit 13th with 26 points from 23 games, while Carrarese are 9th with 30. The match odds reflect a coin toss: Padova 2.90, Draw 3.20…

Mr SimpleWon

Padova to Pounce on Carrarese's Travel Sickness?

The pickPadova win

Chance
45%
Odds
2.90
Model EV
+30.5%

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B mid-table tussle. Padova, sitting 13th, welcome 9th-placed Carrarese. On paper, it's a close one, but the numbers tell a story that's as clear as a bell. First, the form guide. Padova have been a bit up and down, haven't they?…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Padova

3W 3D 4L1.20 pts/game

Carrarese

4W 2D 4L1.40 pts/game

Per game

Padova at home vs Carrarese away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match Β· within Serie B

Overall edge
+60Carrarese
Venue edge
+17Padova
Rating period
Match snapshot
Padova versus Carrarese: long term Elo, before the match
PadovaHomeRatingCarrareseAway
Strength
1,456Overall1,516
1,451Match venue1,433
1,451At home1,559
1,470Away1,433
Attack & defence
1,444Attack1,483
1,510Defence1,542
1,429Home attack1,488
1,467Away attack1,467
1,532Home defence1,589
1,491Away defence1,466
Match profile
1,472Goal environment1,492
1,448Home goals1,462
1,523Away goals1,530
1,499Possession1,498
Specialist ratings
1,475Set-piece attack1,514
1,476Set-piece defence1,514
1,464Close games1,503
1,453Winning margin1,524

Match venue compares Padova at home with Carrarese away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

PadovaPadova1:1

Starting XI

22Alessandro SorrentinoG
3Antonio BarrecaD
77Francesco Di MarianoM
15Kevin LasagnaF
5Marco PerrottaD
44Jonas HarderM
11Alessandro SeghettiF
55Lorenzo VillaD
8Pietro FusiM
4Francesco BelliD
7Kevin Varas MarcilloM

CarrareseCarrarese1:1

Starting XI

1Marco BleveG
4JuliΓ‘n IllanesD
18Nicolas SchiaviM
73Jonas RouhiM
9Fabio AbiusoF
6Filippo OlianaD
70Luis HasaM
21Tommaso RubinoF
37NicolΓ² CalabreseD
17Emanuele ZuelliM
72Simone ZanonM