Fri, 3 Apr 2026, 18:30
Full Time

Match Timeline

11'
V. Crespi
Normal Goal
36'
F. Amatucci🟨
Yellow Card
41'
A. Lamesta
Penalty
46'
A. Salvi🔄
Substitution 1 → A. Ghezzi
54'
A. Lamesta🟨
Yellow Card
63'
C. Crialese🔄
Substitution 2 → A. Vita
66'
L. Silvestri🔄
Substitution 1 → L. Armati
72'
S. Rabbi🔄
Substitution 3 → D. Castelli
72'
D. Falcinelli🔄
Substitution 4 → D. Diaw
74'
V. Crespi🔄
Substitution 2 → D. Cazzadori
74'
A. Lamesta🔄
Substitution 3 → A. Mercati
80'
A. Barberis🔄
Substitution 5 → C. Bunino
82'
D. Cazzadori🟨
Yellow Card
86'
L. Maniero🟥
Red Card
90+1'
V. De Maria🔄
Substitution 4 → B. Boci
90+1'
D. Balestrero🔄
Substitution 5 → R. Fogliata
90+2'
A. Rizzo🟨
Yellow Card
90+3'
C. Bunino
Normal Goal

Head-to-Head

📈 Team Form & Statistics

Union Brescia
Union Brescia
Form: D-D-D-D-L
Cittadella
Cittadella
Form: W-L-W-W-D
Record
3 W
5 D
2 L
6 W
2 D
2 L
Goals Per Game
1.1
Scored
vs
1.6
Scored
0.8
Conceded
vs
1.1
Conceded
Betting Indicators
Clean Sheets
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
BTTS
50%
BTTS
70%
Home/Away Performance
Scored
Home:1.8
Away:0.4
Conceded
Home:0.8
Away:0.8
Scored
Home:1.8
Away:1.4
Conceded
Home:1.2
Away:1.0

⚡ Elo Ratings

Long Term Elo Rating
1535
Average
1548
Average
Short Term Elo Rating
1567
↑ Momentum (+32)
1599
↑ Momentum (+51)
Expected Outcome
32%
Home Win
34%
Draw
34%
Away Win
Attack & Defence Elo
Long Term
1510
Attack
1511
1619
Defence
1539
Recent Form
1516
Attack
1538
1656
Defence
1539
Post-Match Changes
+12
Rating Change
0
Rating Change
Elo ratings measure team strength based on match results and opponent quality. Higher ratings indicate stronger teams.

📝 Match Preview

Union Brescia vs Cittadella: Value Vinny's Serie C Preview
Recommendation:BOTH_TEAMS_TO_SCORE_YES
Odds:2.00
Expected Value:+20.0%
Confidence:7

The Serie C - Girone A showdown between Union Brescia and Cittadella presents a fascinating tactical battle near the top of the table. Union Brescia sits in 2nd place with 60 points, while Cittadella is 4th with 56 points. The gap is minimal, suggesting a closely contested fixture. Union Brescia's home form is robust. In their last 5 home games, they secured a 60% win rate, averaging 1.80 goals scored per game. However, their overall recent form over the last 10 games shows a 50% Both Teams to Score (BTTS) rate. Cittadella, conversely, boasts a 70% BTTS rate over their last 10 games, with an away goal average of 1.40 per game. Their last 5 away matches also yielded a 60% win rate. When analyzing the betting markets, the odds for Both Teams to Score - Yes are set at 2.00. This implies a 50% probability. However, combining Brescia's 50% home BTTS rate with Cittadella's 70% away BTTS rate suggests a higher likelihood of goals from both sides. The head-to-head record also supports this, with the last meeting ending in a 1-1 draw, where both teams found the net. Mathematically, if we estimate the true probability of BTTS Yes at 60%, the odds of 2.00 offer a significant edge. The bookmakers are pricing it at 50%, creating a 10% value gap. This exceeds the 6% minimum edge threshold required for a profitable long-term strategy. While the Over 2.5 Goals market at 2.25 is tempting, the Poisson goal expectancy of 2.5 total goals makes that market too tight to guarantee value. The BTTS Yes market provides clearer statistical backing. In summary, the data points to a match where both defenses will be tested. Brescia's home attack (1.80 goals/game) meets Cittadella's away attack (1.40 goals/game). With both teams showing high BTTS percentages in recent splits, the value lies in the goals market rather than the match winner. The math supports a confident recommendation for Both Teams to Score - Yes.

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