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Match analysis

AustraliaA-League

Melbourne Victory vs Sydney

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this A-League fixture.

Match Timeline

11'
Clarismario⚽
Goal Disallowed - offside
13'
J. Davidson⚽
Goal Disallowed - offside
31'
J. King🟨
Yellow Card
32'
M. Tisserand🟨
Yellow Card
39'
D. Genreau🟨
Yellow Card
45+2'
N. Vergos🟨
Yellow Card
45+5'
A. Grant🔄
Substitution 1 → J. Courtney-Perkins
48'
J. Davidson⚽
Goal Disallowed - Foul
53'
Clarismario⚽
Normal Goal → J. Mata
54'
Clarismario🟨
Yellow Card
56'
P. Wood🔄
Substitution 2 → M. Macallister
56'
M. Tisserand🔄
Substitution 3 → A. Popovic
56'
P. Okon-Engstler🔄
Substitution 4 → W. Kamijo
57'
J. Davidson🟨
Yellow Card
64'
Clarismario⚽
Normal Goal → N. Vergos
67'
V. Campuzano⚽
Goal Disallowed
68'
D. Genreau🔄
Substitution 1 → J. Valadon
68'
M. Grimaldi🔄
Substitution 2 → N. Velupillay
70'
W. Kamijo🟨
Yellow Card
76'
Clarismario🔄
Substitution 3 → K. Jelacic
79'
K. Jelacic⚽
Normal Goal → J. Mata
82'
L. Jackson⚽
Normal Goal → J. Mata
83'
N. Vergos🔄
Substitution 4 → J. Reec
83'
J. Mata🔄
Substitution 5 → R. Piscopo
89'
T. Quintal🔄
Substitution 5 → N. Alfaro
89'
V. Campuzano🔄
Substitution 6 → A. Akon
90+1'
S. Esposito🔄
Substitution 6 → J. Inserra

Match Statistics

9Shots on Goal3
6Shots off Goal4
18Total Shots8
3Blocked Shots1
15Shots insidebox7
3Shots outsidebox1
13Fouls13
11Corner Kicks3
3Offsides3
42Ball Possession58
4Yellow Cards3
3Goalkeeper Saves5
334Total passes496
241Passes accurate408
72Passes %82

Tipster previews (6)

PajimonWon

Sydney's Steel Defence to Silence Victory's Home Roar?

The pickBTTS No

Chance
60%
Odds
2.38
Model EV
+42.8%

Alright, let's braai some facts and pour a cold one for this A-League showdown! Melbourne Victory hosting Sydney is always a lekker clash, but the numbers tell a story that might make you think twice before backing the home side. Looking at the table, Sydney sit pretty in 2nd…

Value VinnyWon

Sydney's Steel Wall Offers Value Against BTTS Hype

The pickBTTS No

Chance
47%
Odds
2.38
Model EV
+11.9%

The A-League serves up a classic rivalry, but for us value hunters, this isn't about passion—it's about probabilities. On paper, it's 2nd-placed Sydney visiting 9th-placed Melbourne Victory. The table doesn't lie, but the betting markets might be telling a fib or two. Let's cut…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Melbourne Victory

4W 1D 5L1.30 pts/game

Sydney

6W 1D 3L1.90 pts/game

Per game

Melbourne Victory at home vs Sydney away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within A-League

Overall edge
+20Sydney
Venue edge
+28Melbourne Victory
Rating period
Match snapshot
Melbourne Victory versus Sydney: long term Elo, before the match
Melbourne VictoryHomeRatingSydneyAway
Strength
1,523Overall1,542
1,538Match venue1,510
1,538At home1,578
1,510Away1,510
Attack & defence
1,465Attack1,528
1,563Defence1,558
1,490Home attack1,620
1,445Away attack1,468
1,568Home defence1,526
1,560Away defence1,555
Match profile
1,997Goal environment2,072
1,817Home goals1,797
1,680Away goals1,775
1,504Possession1,505
Specialist ratings
1,510Set-piece attack1,477
1,509Set-piece defence1,477
1,509Close games1,485
1,520Winning margin1,562

Match venue compares Melbourne Victory at home with Sydney away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

Melbourne VictoryMelbourne Victory1:1

Starting XI

40Jack WarshawskyG
2Jason DavidsonD
10Denis GenreauM
11ClarismarioM
9Nikos VergosF
4Lachlan JacksonD
27Louis D'ArrigoM
64Juan MataM
15Sebastian EspositoD
14Matthew GrimaldiM
22Joshua RawlinsD

SydneySydney1:1

Starting XI

12Harrison Devenish-MearesG
16Joel KingD
24Paul Okon-EngstlerM
7Piero QuispeM
13Patrick WoodF
5Alex GrantD
6Corey HollmanM
20Tiago QuintalM
9Víctor CampuzanoF
32Marcel TisserandD
23Rhyan GrantD