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Match analysis

Brazil flagBrazilSerie A

Atletico-MG vs Vasco DA Gama

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Match Timeline

18'
Atletico-MGJ. Alonso⚽
Normal Goal → Rony
30'
Vasco DA GamaHugo Moura
Card upgrade
31'
Vasco DA GamaHugo Moura🟥
Red Card
32'
Atletico-MGHulk⚽
Normal Goal
35'
Vasco DA GamaP. Vegetti🔄
Substitution 1 → Leandrinho
49'
Atletico-MGDudu⚽
Normal Goal → Hulk
56'
Atletico-MGRony🔄
Substitution 1 → Gustavo Scarpa
69'
Atletico-MGDudu⚽
Normal Goal → Igor Gomes
70'
Atletico-MGVitor Hugo🔄
Substitution 2 → Ruan Tressoldi
70'
Atletico-MGBernard🔄
Substitution 3 → Alexsander
70'
Atletico-MGRenzo Saravia🔄
Substitution 4 → Gabriel Menino
72'
Vasco DA GamaDavid🔄
Substitution 2 → J. Rodriguez
72'
Vasco DA GamaMatheus Franca🔄
Substitution 3 → Guilherme Estrella
72'
Vasco DA GamaTche Tche🔄
Substitution 4 → GB
75'
Atletico-MGVictor Luis⚽
Own Goal
78'
Atletico-MGDudu🔄
Substitution 5 → Cuello

Match Statistics

6Shots on Goal0
8Shots off Goal1
19Total Shots1
5Blocked Shots0
10Shots insidebox0
9Shots outsidebox1
13Fouls4
6Corner Kicks1
3Offsides0
59Ball Possession41
0Red Cards1
0Goalkeeper Saves2
651Total passes467
591Passes accurate399
91Passes %85
1.5expected_goals0.01
-3goals_prevented-3

Tipster previews (4)

PajimonPajimonWon

Final Day Fireworks Expected in Belo Horizonte

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
55%
Odds
1.98
Model EV
+8.9%

Right then, let's get down to business! We've got ourselves a proper Brazilian showdown to wrap up the season. Both these sides are stuck in mid-table hell with 45 points each, so there's nothing riding on this except pride and maybe a better finish in the table. Atletico-MG…

The Big "O"The Big "O"Won

Goal Fest Expected as Atletico-MG Hosts Vasco

The pickOver 2 5

Chance
58%
Odds
1.98
Model EV
+14.8%

The Big O is getting excited about this matchup! We've got two teams that know how to find the net, and more importantly, they know how to let goals in too. That's the recipe for a beautiful, high-scoring spectacle that gets my blood pumping! Atletico-MG has been an absolute…

Umery UnderdogUmery UnderdogLost

Vasco's Hidden Value in Belo Horizonte

The pickVasco DA Gama win

Chance
25%
Odds
4.85
Model EV
+21.3%

Oh, what a delightful little puzzle we have here! The bookmakers have made Atletico-MG the clear favorite at 1.81, but if you look closer, you'll find our underdog puppy Vasco DA Gama is actually sitting pretty in 12th place with more wins and a better goal difference than their…

Yoda Mc Yoda FaceYoda Mc Yoda FaceLost

Battle of Equals: Wisdom from Middle Table

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
55%
Odds
1.91
Model EV
+5.1%

In the grand tapestry of the league, two teams stand as equals, tied on 45 points, separated only by the whispers of goal difference. Much to learn, this match teaches us about balance and the force of home advantage. Atletico-MG, though 13th in the standings, shows the power of…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG

3W 4D 3L1.30 pts/game

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama

4W 0D 6L1.20 pts/game

Per game

Atletico-MG at home vs Vasco DA Gama away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+1Vasco DA Gama
Venue edge
+143Atletico-MG
Rating period
Match snapshot
Atletico-MG versus Vasco DA Gama: long term Elo, before the match
Atletico-MGAtletico-MGHomeRatingVasco DA GamaVasco DA GamaAway
Strength
1,524Overall1,525
1,608Match venue1,465
1,608At home1,548
1,479Away1,465
Attack & defence
1,458Attack1,520
1,556Defence1,498
1,535Home attack1,531
1,414Away attack1,458
1,569Home defence1,515
1,557Away defence1,499
Match profile
1,575Goal environment1,405
1,645Home goals1,482
1,430Away goals1,423
1,510Possession1,520
Specialist ratings
1,494Set-piece attack1,503
1,494Set-piece defence1,503
1,525Close games1,500
1,524Winning margin1,534

Match venue compares Atletico-MG at home with Vasco DA Gama away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG1:1

Starting XI

22EversonG
6Junior AlonsoD
13Guilherme AranaM
92DuduF
7HulkF
14Vitor HugoD
21Alan FrancoM
11BernardF
26Renzo SaraviaD
17Igor GomesM
33RonyM

Vasco DA GamaVasco DA Gama1:1

Starting XI

13Daniel FuzatoG
43Lucas FreitasD
12Victor LuisM
7DavidF
25Hugo MouraD
85Mateus CarvalhoM
99Pablo VegettiF
29Lucas OliveiraD
18Paulinho PaulaM
9Matheus FrançaF
3Tchê TchêM