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Match analysis

Brazil flagBrazilSerie A

Vitoria vs Atletico-MG

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Full time2:0HT 1–0

Match Timeline

16'
VitoriaMarinho🔄
Substitution 1 → Erick
20'
VitoriaRenato Kayzer⚽
Normal Goal
45'
VitoriaCaique Gonçalves🟨
Yellow Card
45+2'
Atletico-MGTomás Pérez🟨
Yellow Card
46'
VitoriaCaique Goncalves🔄
Substitution 2 → Edenilson
46'
Atletico-MGI. Roman🔄
Substitution 1 → A. Preciado
58'
Atletico-MGT. Perez🔄
Substitution 2 → Hulk
58'
Atletico-MGCuello🔄
Substitution 3 → Dudu
66'
Atletico-MGÁngelo Preciado🟨
Yellow Card
67'
VitoriaRenato Kayzer🔄
Substitution 3 → R. Lopez
67'
VitoriaMatheuzinho🔄
Substitution 4 → Anderson
68'
VitoriaErick⚽
Normal Goal → Baralhas
74'
VitoriaErick🟨
Yellow Card
74'
Atletico-MGGustavo Scarpa🔄
Substitution 4 → M. Cassierra
84'
VitoriaUnknown Player🔄
Substitution 5 → Fabricio
84'
Atletico-MGReinier🔄
Substitution 5 → A. Minda
90'
Atletico-MGRuan🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

4Shots on Goal3
4Shots off Goal7
9Total Shots12
1Blocked Shots2
7Shots insidebox9
2Shots outsidebox3
18Fouls13
4Corner Kicks10
2Offsides2
33Ball Possession67
2Yellow Cards3
3Goalkeeper Saves2
244Total passes488
181Passes accurate414
74Passes %85
0.33expected_goals0.97
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (4)

PajimonPajimonWon

Vitoria's Home Hoodoo Over Atletico-MG Offers Value

The pickVitoria win

Chance
42%
Odds
2.60
Model EV
+9.2%

Howzit my bru! Grab a cold one and stoke the braai because we've got a lekker clash coming up from Brazil this Saturday night. Vitoria host Atletico-MG in Serie A action, and if the history books are anything to go by, the home side might just have the edge. Let's talk form…

Value VinnyValue VinnyWon

Vitoria's Home H2H Dominance Offers Value at 2.60

The pickVitoria win

Chance
42%
Odds
2.60
Model EV
+9.2%

The market can't split them at 2.60 versus 2.62, but my spreadsheets certainly can. When the odds compilers serve up near coin-flip pricing for a fixture with a glaring historical anomaly, the value hunter's ears prick up. This isn't about backing a favourite or chasing a…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

VitoriaVitoria

4W 3D 3L1.50 pts/game

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG

3W 4D 3L1.30 pts/game

Per game

Vitoria at home vs Atletico-MG away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+27Vitoria
Venue edge
+84Vitoria
Rating period
Match snapshot
Vitoria versus Atletico-MG: long term Elo, before the match
VitoriaVitoriaHomeRatingAtletico-MGAtletico-MGAway
Strength
1,556Overall1,529
1,547Match venue1,463
1,547At home1,622
1,461Away1,463
Attack & defence
1,462Attack1,482
1,573Defence1,556
1,466Home attack1,561
1,451Away attack1,405
1,595Home defence1,567
1,489Away defence1,555
Match profile
1,593Goal environment1,592
1,493Home goals1,665
1,600Away goals1,427
1,457Possession1,507
Specialist ratings
1,485Set-piece attack1,492
1,485Set-piece defence1,493
1,552Close games1,511
1,551Winning margin1,538

Match venue compares Vitoria at home with Atletico-MG away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

VitoriaVitoria1:1

Starting XI

1Lucas ArcanjoG
13RamonD
6Emmanuel MartínezM
10MatheuzinhoF
25CacáD
44Gabriel BaralhasM
79Renato KayzerF
4CamutangaD
95Caique GonçalvesM
7MarinhoF
45Nathan MendesD

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG1:1

Starting XI

22EversonG
16Renan LodiD
30Victor HugoM
28Tomás CuelloF
6Junior AlonsoD
25Tomás PérezM
19ReinierF
4RuanD
21Alan FrancoM
10Gustavo ScarpaF
3Iván RománD