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Match analysis

BrazilSerie A

Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Full time4:1HT 2–0

Match Timeline

12'
Jonathan Calleri
Penalty
16'
Ferreira⚽
Normal Goal → Artur
46'
Sabino🔄
Substitution 1 → Matheus Doria
46'
William Furtado🔄
Substitution 1 → Kaua Moraes
46'
Matheus Henrique🔄
Substitution 2 → Lucas Silva
47'
Christian⚽
Normal Goal → K. Arroyo
60'
Luciano🔄
Substitution 2 → Cauly
62'
Ferreira⚽
Normal Goal
66'
Wendell🟥
Red card cancelled
67'
Wendell🟨
Yellow Card
68'
Wendell🔄
Substitution 3 → E. Diaz
68'
Gerson🔄
Substitution 3 → Wanderson
68'
K. Arroyo🔄
Substitution 4 → Chico
76'
Jonathan Calleri🔄
Substitution 4 → Andre Silva
77'
D. Bobadilla🔄
Substitution 5 → Pablo Maia
83'
Fabricio Bruno🔄
Substitution 5 → Jonathan Jesus
83'
Kaio Jorge🔄
Substitution 6 → N. Villarreal
90'
Ferreira⚽
Normal Goal → Marcos Antonio
90+3'
Ferreirinha🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

5Shots on Goal7
3Shots off Goal4
11Total Shots13
3Blocked Shots2
10Shots insidebox6
1Shots outsidebox7
21Fouls14
6Corner Kicks4
1Offsides0
37Ball Possession63
2Yellow Cards0
6Goalkeeper Saves1
272Total passes478
212Passes accurate419
78Passes %88
2.01expected_goals1.45
-1goals_prevented-1

Tipster previews (3)

Value VinnyWon

Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro: Value Vinny's Edge Hunt

The pickSao Paulo win

Chance
60%
Odds
2.15
Model EV
+29.0%

Odds don't lie — but bookies do. That's the mantra. When the numbers scream value, I listen. Today, Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro offers a clear statistical edge on the Home Win. Sao Paulo's home form is the primary signal. In their last 10 games, they've secured a 66.67% home win rate…

PajimonWon

Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro Preview

The pickSao Paulo win

Chance
60%
Odds
2.15
Model EV
+29.0%

It's time for some serious Serie A action as Sao Paulo host Cruzeiro on 2026-04-04. As a tipster who loves a good win and a cold beer, I'm looking for value, not just noise. The data here is crystal clear on the form lines. Sao Paulo are the home side and they are in decent…

Mr SimpleLost

Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro: Preview & Tips

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
75%
Odds
1.62
Model EV
+21.5%

Right, let's get straight into the action for this Serie A clash between Sao Paulo and Cruzeiro. It's a tricky one, but the numbers are telling a pretty clear story if you know where to look. Sao Paulo have been solid at home this season. In their last three home games, they've…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Sao Paulo

6W 1D 3L1.90 pts/game

Cruzeiro

3W 5D 2L1.40 pts/game

Per game

Sao Paulo at home vs Cruzeiro away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+1Cruzeiro
Venue edge
+109Sao Paulo
Rating period
Match snapshot
Sao Paulo versus Cruzeiro: long term Elo, before the match
Sao PauloHomeRatingCruzeiroAway
Strength
1,582Overall1,584
1,643Match venue1,534
1,643At home1,594
1,500Away1,534
Attack & defence
1,490Attack1,513
1,611Defence1,594
1,551Home attack1,531
1,439Away attack1,429
1,635Home defence1,613
1,564Away defence1,595
Match profile
1,158Goal environment1,212
1,342Home goals1,430
1,317Away goals1,282
1,523Possession1,509
Specialist ratings
1,511Set-piece attack1,537
1,511Set-piece defence1,536
1,524Close games1,543
1,599Winning margin1,596

Match venue compares Sao Paulo at home with Cruzeiro away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

Sao PauloSao Paulo1:1

Starting XI

23RafaelG
18WendellD
8Marcos AntônioM
11FerreirinhaM
9Jonathan CalleriF
35SabinoD
16Damián BobadillaM
10LucianoM
2Rafael TolóiD
37ArturM
19Lucas RamonD

CruzeiroCruzeiro1:1

Starting XI

31Matheus CunhaG
6KaikiD
11GersonM
88ChristianM
19Kaio JorgeF
25Lucas VillalbaD
8Matheus HenriqueM
10Matheus PereiraM
15Fabrício BrunoD
99Keny ArroyoM
12WilliamD