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Match analysis

Brazil flagBrazilSerie A

Atletico-MG vs Flamengo

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Full time0:4HT 0–3

Match Timeline

8'
FlamengoPedro⚽
Normal Goal → Samuel Lino
26'
FlamengoG. Varela🟨
Yellow Card
31'
FlamengoG. Plata⚽
Normal Goal → Samuel Lino
45+1'
FlamengoG. de Arrascaeta⚽
Normal Goal → G. Varela
45+3'
FlamengoSamuel Lino🟨
Yellow Card
46'
Atletico-MGBernard🔄
Substitution 1 → A. Minda
46'
Atletico-MGA. Franco🔄
Substitution 2 → T. Perez
48'
Atletico-MGT. Perez🟨
Yellow Card
73'
FlamengoSamuel Lino🔄
Substitution 1 → Luiz Araujo
73'
FlamengoJorginho🔄
Substitution 2 → S. Niguez
74'
Atletico-MGMaycon🔄
Substitution 3 → Gustavo Scarpa
74'
Atletico-MGCuello🔄
Substitution 4 → Dudu
82'
FlamengoAlex Sandro🔄
Substitution 3 → Ayrton Lucas
82'
FlamengoG. de Arrascaeta🔄
Substitution 4 → Bruno Henrique
84'
FlamengoPedro⚽
Normal Goal → Evertton Araujo
86'
FlamengoLeo Pereira🔄
Substitution 5 → Vitao

Match Statistics

6Shots on Goal6
5Shots off Goal1
18Total Shots9
7Blocked Shots2
9Shots insidebox6
9Shots outsidebox3
10Fouls13
8Corner Kicks1
1Offsides2
51Ball Possession49
1Yellow Cards2
2Goalkeeper Saves6
492Total passes486
449Passes accurate451
91Passes %93
0.91expected_goals2.25
1goals_prevented1

Tipster previews (3)

PajimonPajimonWon

Atletico-MG vs Flamengo: Away Win

The pickFlamengo win

Chance
58%
Odds
2.00
Model EV
+16.0%

Boere, gather round the braai and grab a cold one, because we’ve got a proper Serie A clash between Atletico-MG and Flamengo. I’m Pajimon, and while I usually prefer my steak well-done and my wins even better, this fixture has enough meat on the bone to make it worth a punt…

Value VinnyValue VinnyWon

Atletico-MG vs Flamengo: Value Vinny's Pick

The pickFlamengo win

Chance
58%
Odds
2.00
Model EV
+16.0%

The bookmakers have priced Flamengo at 2.00 to win away, implying a 50% chance. But when you dig into the raw data, the market is clearly undervaluing the visitors. Odds don’t lie, but bookies do, and this is where we strike. Flamengo arrives in devastating form, securing 8 wins…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG

5W 0D 5L1.50 pts/game

FlamengoFlamengo

8W 1D 1L2.50 pts/game

Per game

Atletico-MG at home vs Flamengo away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+214Flamengo
Venue edge
+15Flamengo
Rating period
Match snapshot
Atletico-MG versus Flamengo: long term Elo, before the match
Atletico-MGAtletico-MGHomeRatingFlamengoFlamengoAway
Strength
1,515Overall1,729
1,638Match venue1,653
1,638At home1,727
1,438Away1,653
Attack & defence
1,461Attack1,635
1,567Defence1,645
1,561Home attack1,619
1,394Away attack1,598
1,576Home defence1,667
1,551Away defence1,600
Match profile
1,580Goal environment1,627
1,662Home goals1,568
1,418Away goals1,558
1,510Possession1,544
Specialist ratings
1,498Set-piece attack1,515
1,498Set-piece defence1,515
1,515Close games1,612
1,519Winning margin1,757

Match venue compares Atletico-MG at home with Flamengo away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

Atletico-MGAtletico-MG1:1

Starting XI

22EversonG
36Kauã PasciniD
28Tomás CuelloM
30Victor HugoF
14Vitor HugoD
8MayconM
9Mateo CassierraF
4RuanD
21Alan FrancoM
2NatanaelD
11BernardM

FlamengoFlamengo1:1

Starting XI

1Agustín RossiG
26Alex SandroD
52Evertton AraujoM
16Samuel LinoM
9PedroF
4Leo PereiraD
21JorginhoM
10Giorgian de ArrascaetaM
3Léo OrtizD
19Gonzalo PlataM
2Guillermo VarelaD