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Match analysis

Brazil flagBrazilSerie A

Bahia vs Santos

Tipster previews, form, Elo ratings and the best odds for this Serie A fixture.

Full time2:2HT 0–2

Match Timeline

20'
BahiaErick Pulga🟨
Yellow Card
20'
SantosGabriel Bontempo
Penalty confirmed
22'
SantosB. Rollheiser
Penalty
45'
SantosB. Rollheiser
Penalty
45+2'
SantosThaciano
Penalty confirmed
46'
BahiaMichel Araujo🔄
Substitution 1 → Everton Ribeiro
46'
BahiaGabriel Xavier🔄
Substitution 2 → Gilberto
53'
SantosDiogenes🟨
Yellow Card
59'
BahiaSantiago Ramos Mingo🟨
Yellow Card
65'
SantosThaciano🔄
Substitution 1 → L. Diaz
65'
SantosB. Rollheiser🔄
Substitution 2 → Miguelito
72'
SantosMiguelito🟨
Yellow Card
72'
BahiaCaio Alexandre🔄
Substitution 3 → Erick
73'
BahiaC. Olivera🔄
Substitution 4 → Everaldo
76'
BahiaLuciano Juba⚽
Normal Goal
80'
SantosGabriel Bontempo🔄
Substitution 3 → T. Rincon
80'
SantosRony🔄
Substitution 4 → Moises
82'
SantosMayke🟨
Yellow Card
83'
BahiaWillian Jose⚽
Normal Goal → Erick Pulga
89'
SantosGonzalo Escobar🟨
Yellow Card
89'
SantosJoao Schmidt🔄
Substitution 5 → Luan Peres
90+2'
BahiaErick Pulga🔄
Substitution 5 → Ademir
90+6'
BahiaEverton Ribeiro🟨
Yellow Card

Match Statistics

5Shots on Goal5
7Shots off Goal4
18Total Shots11
6Blocked Shots2
10Shots insidebox8
8Shots outsidebox3
16Fouls16
5Corner Kicks3
1Offsides1
64Ball Possession36
3Yellow Cards4
3Goalkeeper Saves3
519Total passes293
450Passes accurate220
87Passes %75
1.2expected_goals2.13
0goals_prevented0

Tipster previews (3)

PajimonPajimonLost

Bahia vs Santos: Home Win Preview

The pickBahia win

Chance
65%
Odds
1.80
Model EV
+17.0%

The Brazilian Serie A returns to action with a fascinating clash between Bahia and Santos at the home ground of the hosts. Sitting fifth in the standings with 20 points from 11 matches, Bahia have shown resilience, securing 5 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses over their last 10 games…

Value VinnyValue VinnyLost

Bahia vs Santos: Value Vinny's Match Preview

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
61%
Odds
1.85
Model EV
+12.8%

When the bookmakers set the lines for Bahia versus Santos, they’re pricing in a typical mid-table Serie A clash, but the numbers tell a different story. I don’t care about narratives or manager press conferences—I care about the math. The odds for Under 2.5 Goals sit at 1.85…

Mr SimpleMr SimpleLost

Bahia vs Santos Preview

The pickUnder 2 5

Chance
61%
Odds
1.85
Model EV
+12.8%

Right then, let’s have a proper look at this Brazil Serie A clash between Bahia and Santos. It’s a tricky one, but the numbers tell a clear story about what we’re likely to see on the pitch. Bahia have been solid at home this season, picking up points in half of their last six…

Form & key stats

Last 10 matches, all competitions

BahiaBahia

5W 1D 4L1.60 pts/game

SantosSantos

2W 4D 4L1.00 pts/game

Per game

Bahia at home vs Santos away

Bold green marks the stronger number on each row. Both-teams-scored is shown without a side.

Elo ratings

Before the match · within Serie A

Overall edge
+63Bahia
Venue edge
+178Bahia
Rating period
Match snapshot
Bahia versus Santos: long term Elo, before the match
BahiaBahiaHomeRatingSantosSantosAway
Strength
1,603Overall1,540
1,645Match venue1,467
1,645At home1,549
1,484Away1,467
Attack & defence
1,515Attack1,517
1,579Defence1,545
1,556Home attack1,502
1,458Away attack1,467
1,632Home defence1,569
1,504Away defence1,488
Match profile
1,305Goal environment1,262
1,333Home goals1,477
1,472Away goals1,285
1,523Possession1,501
Specialist ratings
1,503Set-piece attack1,496
1,503Set-piece defence1,496
1,599Close games1,517
1,600Winning margin1,552

Match venue compares Bahia at home with Santos away. Green marks the higher rating; a new team starts at 1500.

Match profile rows describe the game, not team strength: a higher goal environment means higher-scoring matches.

Starting Lineups

BahiaBahia1:1

Starting XI

22Leo VieiraG
46Luciano JubaD
6Jean LucasM
16Erick PulgaF
21Santiago Ramos MingoD
8Caio AlexandreM
12Willian JoseF
3Gabriel XavierD
15Michel AraújoM
99Cristian OliveraF
5Nicolás AcevedoD

SantosSantos1:1

Starting XI

1DiogenesG
31Gonzalo EscobarD
28Christian OlivaM
16ThacianoM
11RonyF
26João Paulo AnaniasD
5Joao SchmidtM
32Benjamín RollheiserM
4Lucas VeríssimoD
49Gabriel BontempoM
12MaykeD